The NFL is strangely going with no byes and no London game this week, meaning we have a full 13-game main slate. While no game has a total north of 50 points, four teams lead the way with team totals of 26 or more.
The busy slate starts, as usual, at 1:00 p.m. ET.
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the DFS slate.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Stud: Jordan Love ($7,100) Green Bay Packers (-4) at Jacksonville Jaguars (45 Total)
The highest team total on the slate belongs to the Packers, who, like the rest of the NFC North, have been one of the more impressive teams in football this season.
It all starts with Love, who’s thrown 13 touchdown passes in his four games since returning from injury, trailing only Baker Mayfield ($6,700) for the overall lead in two fewer games. Love checks in at second in our median projections this week behind Lamar Jackson ($8,000) but is a stronger price-considered play.
Besides the salary difference, Love also has a much better game environment. The Jaguars are awful on defense, ranking dead last in overall DVOA. They’re also a pass funnel, ranking 11th against the run but 32nd against the pass.
On top of that, Jacksonville can do enough offensively to keep their opponents aggressive. They’ve scored 30 points in two of their last three games, with only the Bears’ strong defense (and a trip to London) breaking that trend. The same can’t be said for Jackson’s opponent, the Browns.
All in all, that’s led to a slate-best Positive 4.3 Opponent Plus/Minus against QBs and the most raw DraftKings points as well. That makes Love an elite play in all contest types.
Value: Bo Nix ($5,600) Denver Broncos (-11) vs. Carolina Panthers (41 Total)
The Panthers rank ahead of only the Jaguars in DVOA against the pass while also checking in at dead last against the run. That’s both a positive and a negative for Nix. On the one hand, he should be efficient this week. On the other, he likely won’t have a chance for a ceiling game due to lack of volume.
Especially considering the woeful Panthers offense, which is unlikely to push the game here. The Broncos defense is one of the best in the league, and they have a solid shot of putting up a defensive score with Bryce Young ($4,900) back under center.
On the positive side, Denver has the fourth-highest team total on the slate, and Nix is involved enough in the rushing game that he’s likely to be involved no matter how those points come. He’s scored at least six DraftKings points on the ground in five of the Broncos’ seven games.
All of which makes him a solid floor play this week. We’ve had to look at cheap quarterbacks to open up salary in cash games often this year, and Nix is one of the more comfortable plays in that group. He leads the slate in Pts/Sal projection.
Quick Hits
Lamar Jackson ($8,000): Jackson has the best raw projections on the slate but a limited ceiling, thanks to the opposing offense this week. If you think Jameis Winston ($5,200) gets something going for the Browns, Jackson could be a slate breaker. I’m only considering Jackson as part of game stacks that include Cleveland pieces.
Caleb Williams ($6,000): Williams is tied with Nix for the best Pts/Sal projection on the slate, and it was a fairly close call for who to include as the value play. The setup is similar, with attackable opponents that could struggle to score points. Williams’ lack of rushing upside relative to Nix lowers his floor. The Commanders have a better chance of keeping it close than the Panthers, though, which gives Williams the better ceiling. I prefer Williams in GPPs and Nix for cash games when looking at cheap(ish) QBs this week.
Josh Allen ($7,800): The Amari Cooper trade gave Allen a real threat at wide receiver, making Allen an interesting DFS play on a weekly basis. We’ve got a potential shootout on our hands between the Bills and Seahawks as one of the few games with two competent NFL offenses. Buffalo has played conservatively enough that I’m only interested in Allen as part of game stacks, but he’s on my QB shortlist this week.
Jalen Hurts ($7,500): The other game featuring two (somewhat) strong offenses is Eagles-Bengals. I prefer Hurts over Joe Burrow ($7,000) for the softer matchup and rushing upside, though both are solid plays. It’s also easier to capture most of Burrow’s production via two wide receivers, while Hurts spreads the ball a bit more as well as running it. The 48-point total here trails only Packers-Jaguars, so we’ll want some exposure either way.
Tua Tagovailoa ($6,100): The last few weeks in Miami disproved the notion that any quarterback could be productive throwing to Tyreek Hill and company. Fortunately, Tagovailoa is on track to return this week against the league’s 29th-ranked pass defense. I’m not especially optimistic about the spot, but Tagovailoa is $1,000 cheaper than he was to start the season and has a much tougher matchup next week. Now’s the time to jump back on.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Stud: Breece Hall ($7,300) New York Jets (-7) at New England Patriots
Much like last week, we have a clear top running back, with Hall leading the slate in both median projection and Pts/Sal. The emergence of Braelon Allen ($5,200) has kept Hall from true workhorse status this season, but he still has a top-five opportunity share in the NFL at 32.1%.
Crucially, at least on full PPR DraftKings, he also leads all running backs in targets, with 43 through seven games. While the Jets adding Davante Adams ($7,100) theoretically cuts into that, Hall saw a season-high nine targets last week, with Adams making his Jets debut.
The game script is also close to optimal here, with the Jets seven-point favorites. That suggests the game stays close enough that Hall is involved throughout its entirety, but the Jets lead and can shift more heavily to the run.
The matchup also helps Hall’s projected efficiency. The Patriots are allowing the third-most points to running backs, rank 26th in adjusted line yards allowed, and 28th in DVOA against the run. Both opportunity and efficiency should be there for the dynamic second-year back.
Hall is close to a lock this week for cash games and should be strongly considered for GPPs as well.
Value: Javonte Williams ($6,000) Denver Broncos (-11) vs. Carolina Panthers (41 Total)
When the quarterback and RB1 for the team with one of the highest totals on the slate cost a combined $11,600, it’s no surprise that they’re both strong values.
That’s the situation this week, as the Broncos should roll over the dreadful Panthers defense. As huge favorites, it sets up better on paper for Williams than Nix — though Nix’s rushing production makes it a bit less cut-and-dry.
Either way, it’s a great spot for their lead back. He’s averaging just over eight carries per game in Broncos losses and 12 carries per game in their wins. As we touched on with Nix, Carolina is even worse against the run than the pass, so he should be efficient with those looks as well.
If he were a few hundred cheaper, Williams would be a screaming value. Obviously, he’s not, as he carries a bit of blowout risk in this matchup. Still, pairing Nix and Williams effectively gives you exposure to all of the non-garbage time scoring from Denver.
That pairing also frees up plenty of salary for cash games, so I’m strongly considering it.
Quick Hits
JK Dobbins ($6,900): Dobbins has emerged as the leader of the Chargers’ split backfield and ranks inside the top 12 in both rushing attempt share and opportunity share in the NFL. That’s not enough to justify his salary every week, but for a Chargers team that wants to win on the ground and is favored by a touchdown, it’s enough this week. He trails only Hall in Pts/Sal at running back.
Derrick Henry ($8,100): Henry is on pace to break the all-time rushing yards record this season — albeit with an extra game. He’s been the overall RB1 by a mile this year, averaging 125 rushing yards and 1.4 touchdowns per game. The only potential issue here is Baltimore could completely demolish the Browns, and choose to rest their workhorse back a bit down the stretch. Henry probably has a solid game en route to the big lead if that happens, but he might need it to stay a bit closer to hit a true ceiling.
Josh Jacobs ($6,600): Jacobs trails only Henry and Jordan Mason with his 120 carries this season, with a much cheaper price tag. Like Henry, he’s fairly game-script-dependent. Jacobs averages over 20 carries when Green Bay wins by more than three but around 12 in other games. The Packers are favored by four this week, though the Jags are tougher against the run than the pass.
David Montgomery ($6,400): A clear trend has emerged in Detroit, with Jahmyr Gibbs ($7,400) taking over in close or negative game scripts, but Montgomery is getting more run when the Lions control the action. Montgomery is averaging over 20 DraftKings points in games the Lions win by seven or more. They’re favored by 11.5 this week, the biggest mark on the slate.
Kareem Hunt ($6,300): It’s a small sample size, but since rejoining the Chiefs, Hunt has handled 63 carries and six targets across three games. He leads the league in carries per game and is still the unquestioned lead back in Kansas City. While they’ll be shifting a bit more pass-heavy since adding DeAndre Hopkins ($4,900), it might not happen this week. Plus, the Raiders have the second-worst Opponent Plus/Minus to backs on the slate. Not bad for his $6,300 salary.
Bijan Robinson ($7,200): Robinson’s usage continues to be frustrating, to put it mildly. Tyler Allgeier ($5,100) is getting about 35% of the RB carries and an occasional target. However, Bijan set a season-high with 21 carries last week…in a 20-point loss. That’s somewhat counterintuitive but potentially a good sign. Either way, he has the talent and is worth some GPP bets on him seeing the opportunity.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Stud: Tyreek Hill ($7,000) Miami Dolphins (-4.5) vs. Arizona Cardinals
The four top wide receivers in median projection are separated by less than a point. They’re also separated by $1,500 in salary, with Hill coming in as by far the cheapest.
As you know, he’ll be getting his quarterback Tua Tagovailoa back this week. Hill put up 29 DraftKings points in his only full game with Tagovailoa this season and topped 25 points in nine of 16 games last season.
Six of those went for at least 30, which would be a massive steal at his price tag. It’s a bit of a risk that the connection between Hill and Tagovailoa is still there following the layoff, but if we wait to see it, the price and ownership will be much higher.
Plus, a home matchup against the Cardinals is a fairly welcoming return game for the Dolphins offense while they travel to Buffalo next week. I’m willing to take the risk on Hill even in cash games, but he’s at a minimum a strong GPP play. His teammate Jaylen Waddle ($5,400) is a budget version of the same thesis.
Value: Tampa Bay Wide Receivers ($3,500-$3,800) (+2.5) vs. Atlanta Falcons (46 total)
The Tampa Bay wide receiver room could be the key to the Week 8 NFL slate. They lost both of their top wide receivers, Chris Godwin and Mike Evans last week, leaving more than 40% of the team’s targets up for grabs.
While there’s no guarantee those all go to receivers, a good chunk of them will. That means north of 16 targets per game from one of the league’s pass-heaviest teams.
The starting wideouts will be Sterling Shepard ($3,800), Jalen McMillan ($3,700), and Trey Palmer ($3,500). McMillan’s 15 targets lead the group so far, but that could be a red herring. McMillan already had a role in the offense, which means Shepard and Palmer were the direct backups to Godwin and Evans.
Palmer seemed to be the replacement for Evans when he went down last week. Godwin was injured in the closing seconds, giving us no information there. My hunch is that Shepard steps into the Godwin role while Palmer serves as a replacement for Evans again.
This makes Palmer the GPP option, while McMillan and Shepard are stronger for cash games. We have less than a point between the three in our projections. That means a bit of guesswork is required here, which should spread the field out a bit, leading to a huge value if you can guess right.
Quick Hits
Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,400): You know expectations were high when four games of 20+ DraftKings points feels like a letdown. That’s the situation for the Sun God, who suddenly has plenty of target competition in Detroit. Well, had target competition. Jameson Williams and his five targets per game will probably be suspended for the next two weeks. It’s not an ideal situation with the Lions as double-digit favorites, but ASB could easily find the end zone twice before the foot comes off the gas.
Ja’Marr Chase ($8,500): Chase leads all receivers in median projection this week, though his high salary makes him not especially valuable. He has a massive ceiling if the Eagles-Bengals game turns into a shootout, though. I like pairing Chase and/or Tee Higgins ($6,500) with Jalen Hurts in game stacks — but I don’t have much interest in the receivers otherwise.
Stefon Diggs ($7,500): Diggs hasn’t topped 20 DraftKings points since Week 1, when he scored two touchdowns against the Colts. He’s facing the Colts again this week, but this time without Nico Collins competing for targets. This is as good of a spot as he’s had all year in what should be a reasonably close game.
Drake London ($7,200): London is quietly the overall WR4 this season and WR3 among healthy players with Godwin on the IR. He’s still not priced like it, though. He’s an excellent stacking partner with Bucs wide receivers, as London needs the Tampa offense to put up points to find his ceiling. It’s GPP only for me, but I’ll have plenty of London.
Cedric Tillman ($3,300): Tillman saw as many targets as Jerry Jeudy ($4,800) and Elijah Moore ($3,700) last week. He might be the direct backup for the now-departed Amari Cooper. The best part is, with Deshaun Watson on IR, some of those new ound targets might even be catchable. Tillman is a slightly sneaky pivot from the Bucs wideouts for GPPs and a potential cash game salary saver against a Ravens offense that invites the pass.
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NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Stud: Trey McBride ($5,500) Arizona Cardinals (+4.5) at Miami Dolphins (46 Total)
McBride ranks third among all tight ends this season in yards and fourth in receptions. He’s been a bit of a fantasy disappointment, though. That’s because he’s yet to find the end zone. He has the most scoreless yards of any player at the position.
That makes him a weekly regression candidate at a position where touchdowns are a huge part of scoring. While his four red-zone targets are somewhat concerning, McBride has the athletic profile to score from anywhere while averaging just under ten yards per reception.
It’s not a particularly great matchup against a Dolphins team that’s tough against tight ends, but the game environment should be solid. He’s a nice GPP bring-back if building around Tagovailoa and the Dolphins skill players.
McBride leads the position in median and ceiling projections. However, there are five players within a third of a point, so managing ownership is important.
Value: Cade Otton ($3,500) Tampa Bay Bucs (+2.5) vs. Atlanta Falcons (46 total)
One of those five is Otton, who narrowly trails McBride in median projection at $2,000 cheaper. Otton leads the position in Pts/Sal by a country mile and is the closest thing to a free square in cash games as it exists on the slate.
Otton hit double-digit targets for the first time last week, which wasn’t a coincidence. With Mike Evans leaving in the first quarter, Otton stepped into a bigger role. Now Chris Godwin is gone too, clearing the way for a huge target share for Otton.
Slight home underdogs is also an ideal game script for a pass catcher, so it’s hard to poke any holes in the case for Otton this week. He’s a huge part of my plans for the weekend.
Quick Hits
David Njoku ($5,100): Njoku has been possibly the only bright spot for the Browns offense this year, overcoming his quarterback to become the TE8 in points per game. He immediately blew up for a 10/76/1 line without Watson last week on a massive 14 targets. Like Otton, he also has little target competition from the wide receivers. Obviously, the price is tougher for Njoku, but if he finds the endzone and Otton doesn’t, it will be worth the $1,600
Travis Kelce ($6,000): Kelce had a two-game breakout in Weeks 5 and 6, as he returned to being the #1 option in the Chiefs passing attack. He now has more target competition by way of Hopkins, but that could take a couple of weeks to materialize. It’s not the best game environment, but Kelce’s slate-breaking talent is always worth considering.
Brock Bowers ($6,100): Ditto for Brock Bowers, who has to face the tough Chiefs passing defense. With Davantae Adams gone, he’s the Raiders’ best offensive threat and has three straight games with double-digit targets. His closest athletic comp coming into the league is also a good sign:
Kyle Pitts ($4,400): Pitts has hit double-digit DraftKings points in three straight games despite being held out of the end zone. With Otton as the clear top player at the lower end of the salary scale, Pitts is an interesting pay-up-to-be-contrarian option. Like with Njoku, it probably comes down to touchdowns. Pitts is cheaper, projecting for lower ownership and part of a better offense.
GPP Roster Construction
It’s a wide-open week for GPPs, with almost limitless options. We have close, high-scoring games, high-scoring blowouts, and games where one team has a huge total and the other has almost nothing.
We’ll touch on some of my favorite starting points in my SimLabs article (coming soon), while I’ll keep this space for my best general advice: You have to take a stand this week.
There’s no way to cover all of the viable plays this week, so do your research and dig in on a few spots you like. That doesn’t have to be specific players, but things like “Packers passing game” or specific game stacks.
If you get that one thing right, you can mix and match ancillary pieces around it and have a great chance at posting a GPP-winning score. If you try to get nine things right in every lineup, odds are you won’t get there.
Cash Games
We have a few options in terms of general cash game construction here. The big decision point is on whether to roster one or two cheap wide receivers — plus which wide receivers they are.
The choices are the Bucs trio and Tillman of the Browns, with Elijah Moore potentially in play. With just one of those, you’ll need a cheap quarterback but can afford three $6,000+ running backs, Otton, and two strong wide receivers.
With two, the world is your oyster. Want to spend up for Lamar Jackson or Jordan Love? Sure. Jam in Derrick Henry? Why not.
At running back, Breece Hall is a priority regardless of roster construction, with Dobbins a close second. It’s a bit open from there and largely depends on the remaining salary. I wouldn’t mind showing up with Derrick Henry or Bijan Robinson, while cheaper backs like Javonte Williams, Josh Jacobs, and D’Andre Swift are also fine.
My favorite spend-up wideouts are Diggs and Hill, though both carry a bit more risk than Ja’Marr Chase and Amon-Ra St. Brown. That risk comes with significant savings though — so again — it comes down to the cheap player decision.
Don’t overthink Cade Otton at tight end. At defense, it’s a great spot for both Baltimore ($3,400) and Denver ($3,700) at the high end. As far as cheaper options, I wouldn’t mind Atlanta ($2,600), given the diminished state of the Bucs offense.
Good luck!
