For the first Friday night of the NBA season, on the schedule is a 10-game slate. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS, going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections, and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: LaMelo Ball at Atlanta Hawks – $9,300
Ball was sensational in Wednesday’s season opener. In an impressive road win over the Rockets, the guard flirted with a triple-double en route to 67 DraftKings points across 37.6 minutes. Houston ranked fifth in defensive efficiency on their home floor last season and Ball finds himself in a much easier matchup Friday, visiting the Hawks, who ranked fourth in pace and 27th in defensive efficiency last season. This game’s total is the fourth-highest on the slate (227 points), and Ball should flourish with Brandon Miller (glute) sidelined. With the wing off the court the last two seasons, Ball is supplying 1.6 DraftKings PPM.
Plus, in totals of at least 225 points over the last two seasons, Ball is generating 48.6 DraftKings PPG (18 games), via the Trends Tool.
Top Value: Dyson Daniels vs. Charlotte Hornets – $4,800
In his first start as the Hawks’ new shooting guard, Daniels was excellent vs. the Nets on Wednesday, posting 36.75 DraftKings points across 34 minutes. Hawks’ sixth man Bogdan Bogdanovic saw 27 minutes off the bench in this game, but the veteran is out Friday with a hamstring injury, likely opening a few more minutes for Daniels in this prime matchup vs. the Hornets, who were the worst defense in the league last season in terms of efficiency.
The ex-Pelican is scoring 30 DraftKings PPG when he has logged over 30 minutes over the last two seasons (nine games) and is a no-brainer at this sub-$5,000 salary.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: CJ McCollum at Portland Trail Blazers – $7,500
The Pelicans defeated the Bulls without Zion Williamson (illness) on Wednesday, but they lost Dejounte Murray (hand) in the process. McCollum finished with 39.5 DraftKings points in the win, and he should now operate as New Orleans’ point guard until Murray returns. Williamson will be back tonight, so we can’t expect McCollum’s usage to spike, but his assist rate should rise.
McCollum also is facing his former team in the Blazers, who ranked 23rd in defensive efficiency last season. The veteran has always played well against Portland since leaving the team, providing 42.8 DraftKings PPG across seven matchups and his ceiling is the highest on the slate among shooting guards in the ShotQuaility projections, making him a terrific value at this reasonable salary.
Top Value: Tre Mann at Atlanta Hawks – $4,300
After the Hornets lost Miller (glute) on Wednesday, Mann was a pivotal piece in Charlotte upsetting the Rockets. The veteran finished with 35.5 DraftKings points in 28 minutes off the bench. Mann handled a huge 29.6% usage rate, and he closed the game with the starters. Mann will likely remain in a reserve role tonight, but he earned himself a large role with Miller sidelined.
Mann should see 25-30 minutes in this great matchup vs. the Hawks, putting him a terrific position to easily outperform this low salary. With Miller off the court the last two seasons, Mann has contributed 1.2 DraftKings PPM with a 25.5% usage rate, via the On/Off Tool.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Lauri Markkanen vs. Golden State Warriors – $7,800
Markkanen was outstanding in Wednesday’s season opener vs. the Grizzlies, posting 50.25 DraftKings points in 34 minutes. The forward continued to see high usage, at 27.9%, and Markkanen was one rebound shy of reaching the double-double bonus on DraftKings.
Tonight, the Jazz are hosting the Warriors, and this game’s total is the second-highest on the slate (232.5 points). Markkanen recorded 45 DraftKings points when he last faced Golden State in February, and he should be motivated to prove his worth tonight after the Warriors were reportedly trying to trade for Markkanen this summer. Evident from his showing Wednesday, Markkanen is simply too cheap for his upside.
Top Value: Jalen Wilson at Orlando Magic – $3,700
Wilson saw a significant in the Nets’ season opener vs. the Hawks on Wednesday. The 23-year-old tallied 23 DraftKings points across 33.6 minutes off the bench. Notably, Wilson was the first player off the bench for the Nets, and he closed the game with the starters over Ben Simmons. Simmons did have five fouls, but the veteran is unlikely to see a full workload this early in the season regardless of foul trouble, as Brooklyn errs on the side of caution with the fragile player.
Nonetheless, Wilson playing a big role in his second season makes a ton of sense for this weak Nets’ team and he is a great punt play at this near minimum salary, regardless of this poor matchup with the Magic. For the last five occasions he has logged over 25 minutes, Wilson is averaging 24.3 DraftKings PPG.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo vs. Chicago Bulls – $11,100
Antetokounmpo is simply too cheap and is a stellar spend tonight. The former MVP’s salary reached $12,000 on DraftKings last season, and Antetokounmpo posted 55 DraftKings points in Wednesday’s season-opener win over the 76ers. Now, the Bucks will have their home opener this evening vs. the Bulls, and this tilt’s total is the highest on the slate (234.5 points). Furthermore, Milwaukee’s implied team total is the largest on the board by nearly three points (122 points).
Antetokounmpo scored 64.4 DraftKings PPG in four matchups with Chicago last season and when playing behind an implied team total of at least 120 points, he dominated with 64.3 DraftKings PPG (31 games), via the Trends Tool.
Top Value: Santi Aldama at Houston Rockets – $5,100
Aldama started in place of Jaren Jackson Jr. (hamstring) vs. the Jazz on Wednesday and poured in 37.75 DraftKings points across 31.3 minutes with the starting role. This minute total led the Grizzlies, and Aldama finished third on the team in plus/minus.
The veteran is amassing 26.6 DraftKings PPG with Jackson Jr. inactive the last two seasons (seven games) and is a strong value play with the forward remaining sidelined Friday.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Alperen Sengun vs. Memphis Grizzlies – $8,800
Sengun was a monster in Wednesday’s season opener, scoring 66 DraftKings points in 33.5 minutes with a massive 40.7% usage rate vs. the Hornets. After finishing third in votes for Most Improved Player of the Year last season, Sengun should make another leap this season, and he and the Rockets should be highly motivated to win tonight after dropping Wednesday’s tilt to Charlotte.
As mentioned above, the Grizzlies are without Jackson Jr. and without him, the team should struggle mightily to stop Sengun. Rookie Zach Edey should get dominated by Sengun and he should erupt with another huge performance. The Rockets are three-point home favorites tonight and when competing as a home favorite over the last two seasons, Sengun is providing 49.8 DraftKings PPG (17 games), via the Trends Tool.
Top Value: Guerschon Yabusele at Toronto Raptors – $4,000
With Joel Embiid (injury recovery) and Paul George (knee) unavailable, Yabusele had a solid 76ers’ debut Wednesday, with 24.5 DraftKings across 25 minutes off the bench vs. the Bucks. The ex-Celtic was the second player off the bench for Philadelphia, and he was fourth on the team in usage at 20.8%. Yabusele earned himself a second chance in the NBA after his strong run with France during the Olympics this summer, and with Embiid and George remaining out Friday, Yabusele should handle right around 25 minutes again off the bench.
Going against a depleted Raptors’ team that ranked 26th in defensive efficiency and allowed 136 points to the Cavaliers on Wednesday, Yabusele should have zero issues surpassing five-times value and is a great punt play for all formats.
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