With no byes this in Week 8, this Sundays slate presents a 13-game main slate on DraftKings, and below, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools to find some of the best NFL DFS leverage targets for Week 8.
Specifically, I will be focusing on players’ ownership projections and Leverage Scores within our FantasyLabs Models to identify these contrarian targets. Leverage Scores are a combination of a player’s projected ceiling and ownership. In other words, a high ceiling combined with a low ownership projection means a high leverage score.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups for single-entry or 3-entry max tournaments and our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments. Our optimizer allows you to create up to 300 lineups with the click of a button.
The Lineup Optimizer has endless customization opportunities.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS High-Leverage Stack
Tua Tagovailoa ($6,100) + Tyreek Hill ($7,000) + James Conner ($6,500)
Tagovailoa (concussion) returned to practice this week and is expected to make his return from a four-game absence this Sunday vs. the Cardinals. His salary on DraftKings has plummeted to the lowest it has been in over two years, and Tagovailoa is an awesome value play. He has only played in two games this season, but he was efficient with 7.8 yards per pass in those contests. Last season, Tagovailoa threw for 29 touchdowns and a league-high 4,624 passing yards, and over the last two years, he has generated 0.46 DraftKings per dropback.
Tagovailoa returns this week at a perfect time, with a matchup with the Cardinals up next, who are yielding the most yards per pass this season (7.9). The Dolphins carry an implied team total of 25.25 points, and this game’s total is set at 46 points. Tagovailoa has notoriously been more productive when facing team’s from outside his division and when we specifically look at his results vs. NFC clubs, he is amassing 22.1 DraftKings PPG (eight games), via the Trends Tool.
Hill has struggled mightily without Tagovailoa and as a result, the former’s salary has hit a new season-low $7,000, which is the cheapest Hill has been on DraftKings since January 2022. The wideout finished second in DraftKings points among receivers with Tagovailoa healthy last season, and in the two games Hill has played with Tagovailoa this season, Hill led the team with a 24.7% target share, including a whopping six targets over 20 yards. In totals of at least 45 points over the last three seasons, Hill is amassing 22.3 DraftKings PPG (30 games).
The Dolphins are far more vulnerable on the ground than through the air – they have allowed the least passing yards this season – making Conner the best bring-back option for Tagovailoa to Hill stacks.
Conner has had a strong season. The veteran ranks 11th in DraftKings points among running backs, and he has recorded at least 14 DraftKings points in five of his seven starts. Usage-wise, Conner ranks seventh in carries per game (15.6) and 10th in red-zone rushes (18) while logging 64.6% of the snaps. As a receiver, he has run a route on 48% of his team’s dropbacks, and he has seen a target on 18% of those routes. Miami is yielding the second-most rushing touchdowns to running backs (nine), and Conner is a -110 favorite on the DraftKings Sportsbook to find the paydirt in this contest.
Conner is slated to be only around 2% owned on DraftKings, according to our projections, and combining him, Tagovailoa, and Hill in the same lineup will absolutely set you apart from the field.
NFL DFS Running Back Leverage Pick
Kenneth Walker ($7,800)
Despite dealing with an illness last Sunday vs. the Falcons, Walker produced 93 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns. He had a season-low 47% of the snaps in the win, but a week removed from this, Walker should be past his illness and ready to return to his usual workload. In his five games this season, Walker is averaging 13 carries per game – including eight red-zone attempts – and logging 61.8% of the snaps. The back has also seen tremendous usage as a receiver for this Seattle team that leads the league in pass rate. While running a route on 51% of his team’s dropbacks, Walker has garnered a target on 23% of his routes, including six red-zone targets. In total, the back has seen 14 red-zone opportunities in only five games.
With this awesome role, Walker has been one of the best fantasy assets this season. Among running backs, he ranks second in DraftKings PPG (22.9), fourth in DraftKings points per touch (1.3), and sixth in DraftKings points per snap (0.52). Walker is in a great spot to continue his excellent season this Sunday, going against the Bills, who are giving up the fourth-most yards per rush (5.1). This game’s total is the third-highest on the slate (47 points) and with Walker slated to be only around 5% owned on DraftKings, the back is a spectacular contrarian play.
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Leverage Pick
Amari Cooper ($6,100)
Creating a mini game stack with Cooper and Walker from this Bills vs. Seahawks matchup has a ton of merit this week. Cooper made his Buffalo debut this past Sunday, and he caught four of his five targets for 66 yards and a touchdown vs. the Titans (16.6 DraftKings points). Given Cooper was just traded to the Bills five days before this tilt, he saw a limited workload, running only 12 routes on Josh Allen’s 35 dropbacks. However, Cooper saw a target on a ridiculous 41% of those routes.
Now, a week later and in his second game with Buffalo, Cooper should run a route on most of his team’s dropbacks, giving him huge upside. The Bills traded for Cooper because they desperately needed a playmaker in their receiver room, and Allen should feed Cooper every week, similar to how he utilized Stefon Diggs during his days in Buffalo – Diggs saw a target share of at least 29% in each of his four seasons with the Bills. Allen is the best quarterback Cooper has played with during his 10-year career, and he could explode in this potential shootout with the Seahawks. Our projections are slating Cooper for single-digit ownership on DraftKings, and this is likely the cheapest we will see the receiver for the rest of the season.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Leverage Pick
Kyle Pitts ($4,400)
For the first time this season, the tight end position has many intriguing options to consider. Pitts is one of those targets, and with most DFS players opting for a cheaper Cade Otton or to pay up at the position, Pitts is likely to get lost in the shuffle and come with low ownership – our projections are forecasting Pitts for single-digit ownership on DraftKings – making him as sharp GPP play. Pitts has scored double-digit DraftKings points in three straight starts and he racked up a season-high nine targets last week. Over this three-game stretch, Pitts has obtained an 18.5% target share while running a route on 86% of his team’s dropbacks.
On the menu for the Florida product this weekend is a perfect matchup with the Buccaneers. The tight end posted 15.8 DraftKings points vs. Tampa Bay three weeks ago, and his success should continue against this defense that is allowing the third-most receiving yards to tight ends this season (414), which is a product of the Buccaneers using zone coverage at the second-highest rate in the league. Notably, 82% of Pitts’ receiving yards, 23 of his 25 catches, and his only touchdown of the season have come against zone average. In fact, Pitts ranks third among tight ends in receiving yards against zone, trailing only Brock Bowers and Trey McBride, who are both significantly more expensive than Pitts this week. This game’s total is the fourth-highest on the slate (46 points), and the tight end has a ceiling near 20 DraftKings points in this juicy spot.
Note: player and ownership projections may change leading up to lock. Be sure to check out the Player Models for any changes.
