Nailing the running back spots is essential for constructing a solid DFS lineup. It’s a bit easier to project than the receivers, where touchdowns and big plays are going to result in weekly variance. The workloads for the top running backs are much more stable, so they’re typically more consistent fantasy producers.
However, that also results in some of the heaviest chalk you’ll see across the industry. How do you handle those players each week?
In this piece, I highlight running backs who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
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Breece Hall ($7,300 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel)
Hall was drafted as a top-three option at the position this offseason, but he hasn’t had his best year. He’s averaged just 3.7 yards per carry, which is drastically worse than his marks from his first two seasons. As a result, he’s averaging a career-worst 49.7 rushing yards per game despite averaging more attempts than in previous years.
The good news is it hasn’t really hurt him from a fantasy perspective. Volume is king for fantasy running backs, and Hall continues to pile up opportunities in the most important areas. He’s been one of the most productive pass-catchers in football out of the backfield, averaging 4.6 receptions and 43.9 receiving yards per game. That gets him to nearly double-figures in PPR points before factoring in any rushing yards or touchdowns. Hall also continues to dominate for the Jets around the goal line, getting 100% of the carries from inside the five-yard line.
There’s plenty to like about Hall this week vs. the Patriots. New England has been subpar against the run this season, ranking 24th in EPA, and they’ve allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs.
Additionally, the Jets are favored by a full touchdown in this spot, and running backs tend to perform better in games where their team is favored. Hall has absolutely smashed in that split, averaging 20.46 DraftKings points and a +6.75 Plus/Minus in eight previous occurrences (per the Trends tool).
Hall’s price tag is also down from its peak, and he’s merely the eighth-priciest option at the position on DraftKings. Hall leads all RBs in median and ceiling projection, so that’s an elite combination.
De’Von Achane ($6,200 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel)
Achane took the NFL by storm as a rookie in 2023-24. He averaged a mind-boggling 7.8 yards per carry, and he was a threat to take the ball to the house on every touch. He finished with 11 total touchdowns in just 11 games, and expectations were extremely high entering his second season.
Unfortunately, Achane has not been able to repeat last year’s production. He’s down to a much more pedestrian 3.7 yards per carry, and he’s had 30 rushing yards or fewer in four of six games.
Of course, it’s not entirely his fault. Tua Tagovailoa went down with an injury in Week 2, and the offense has been in shambles without him. They’ve averaged just 274.5 yards in four games without their starting quarterback, and they have just three total touchdowns over that time frame. In other words, no one in Miami has been getting the job done for fantasy purposes.
With Tagovailoa set to return to the lineup this week, it’s an elite opportunity to buy low on one of the most explosive offenses in football. They’re taking on the Cardinals, who are 22nd in rush defense EPA and 29th in defensive EPA overall. Achane’s salary has decreased by -$1,000 from its peak on both DraftKings and FanDuel, but he had at least 23.0 DraftKings points in his two games with Tua in the lineup.
J.K. Dobbins ($6,900 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel)
Dobbins isn’t expected to be as popular as the first two options on this slate, but he’s an elite option nonetheless. In fact, he’s first at the position in projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel, and he trails only Hall in that department on DraftKings.
With Gus Edwards currently out with an injury, Dobbins has solidified his status as the Chargers top running back. He’s handled at least 68% of the team’s rushing attempts in back-to-back weeks, including most of the short-yardage work. He is losing some work to Kimani Vidal in passing situations, but he still has at least three targets in three of his past four games.
The big reason to like Dobbins this week is the matchup. The Saints defense is in complete disarray at the moment. They allowed 593 yards and 51 points to the Buccaneers two weeks ago, and they followed that up with 389 yards and 33 points to the Broncos. Both teams rushed for at least 225 yards against New Orleans, and there’s no reason the Chargers can’t do the same. Los Angeles is favored by more than a touchdown in this spot, and the Saints are expected to be without quarterback Derek Carr for at least one more week.
Dobbins had 25 carries in a win over the Broncos two weeks ago, and he could be looking at a similar workload vs. the Saints. If he gets that many opportunities, 100+ yards and multiple scores is in play.
Now available: our NFL DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
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Jahmyr Gibbs ($7,400 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel)
There are a lot of big favorites on this slate, but none more so than the Lions. They’re currently favored by 11.5 points vs. the Titans, which could mean a busy day for Gibbs and David Montgomery.
The Lions very rarely need an excuse to run the football. They’re fourth in the league in rush attempts per game, and the three teams ahead of them – the Ravens, Eagles, and Steelers – all have mobile quarterbacks. Jared Goff isn’t doing much damage with his legs, so nearly all their production is coming from Gibbs and Montgomery.
While Montgomery might see a few additional carries each week, Gibbs is the far more explosive player. He’s averaging 5.7 yards per attempt, and he’s tied for sixth in the league in rushing plays of at least 20 yards. Gibbs is also the preferred pass-catcher in the Lions’ backfield, making him the superior fantasy target.
Gibbs leads the FanDuel slate with 13 Pro Trends, and only Hall and Achane are showing up in the optimal lineup sims at a higher frequency.
D’Andre Swift ($6,200 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel)
Swift started the year slowly, but like the rest of the Bears’ offense, he’s picked up his production in a big way. He’s scored at least 19.0 DraftKings points in three straight games – all Bears’ wins – and he’s put his full skill set on display. He’s averaged 85.7 rushing yards per game with three touchdowns, and he’s added 13 catches for 147 yards through the air.
Swift gets a great matchup this week vs. the Commanders. Their defense has played a bit better in recent weeks, but two of their past three games have been against the Browns and Panthers. You don’t get any brownie points for shutting them down. For the year, the Commanders are merely 27th in rush defense EPA.
Swift’s pass-catching ability typically makes him better suited for DraftKings, but his price tag on FanDuel is extra appealing. It comes with a Bargain Rating of 70%, which is one of the top marks among starting running backs.
Chase Brown ($5,800 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel)
Brown entered the year as the RB2 in Cincinnati, but his role has changed significantly in recent weeks. It’s unclear whether or not it’s because Zack Moss is dealing with an injury or because Brown has simply played him under the table, but it’s a big win for fantasy players regardless.
Brown had a season-high 60% rushing share last week vs. the Browns, and Moss hasn’t played a single snap inside the red zone. Moss is playing primarily on passing downs, but when Brown is in the pattern, he’s a clear focal point of the Bengals’ passing attack: He’s been targeted on 24% of his routes run this season.
Brown has proven he can be efficient on limited volume – he’s averaged 5.0 yards per carry this season – and his volume continues to trend upwards. The game between the Bengals and Eagles also has the second-highest total of the week at 48.0, so it’s a spot where there could be some scoring.
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Tony Pollard ($6,500 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel)
The Titans are a disaster. It hasn’t really mattered whether Will Levis or Mason Rudolph has been at quarterback; they’re simply not getting the job done. They’ve averaged the second-fewest yards per game this season, and they’re 26th in points scored.
They’re massive underdogs this week vs. the Lions, which isn’t ideal for their running backs. However, Pollard has proven to be a proficient pass-catcher in the past, and he already has two games with six targets this season. Any reduction in carries could be made up for in the passing game, which makes Pollard viable in all game scripts.
Pollard is coming off a poor showing last week, but he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of six games this season. He has the sixth-highest optimal rate at the position on FanDuel but is projected for roughly 11% ownership.
Josh Jacobs ($6,600 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel)
Jacobs looks pretty similar to Pollard in Sim Labs. Both players are showing up in the optimal lineup simulations at an equivalent amount, and both players are projected for less ownership than optimal. Jacobs is arguably the superior option on DraftKings, where the price gap between him and Pollard is a bit larger.
Unlike Pollard, Jacobs is in an elite situation this week vs. the Jaguars. Their defense has been abysmal this season, and now they have to play back in the US after spending the past two weeks in Europe. That’s easier said than done.
The Packers are currently implied for 27 points in this matchup, which is the second-highest mark on the slate. Jacobs has been a bit unlucky from a touchdown perspective this season – he has two actual touchdowns compared to 3.8 expected – so perhaps this is the spot where things even out a bit.
Kenneth Walker ($7,800 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel)
Walker is the new Aaron Jones. Just like when Jones was with Green Bay, Walker might not get as many opportunities as he should each week. The Seahawks continue to give Zach Charbonnet a decent number of touches each week despite Walker being the far more productive player.
However, like Jones, Walker has turned lemons into lemonade. He’s averaged 4.7 yards per carry this season, and he’s fourth in the league in rushes of at least 20 yards despite missing two games due to injury. He’s also been a prolific touchdown scorer, scoring six times in his five outings.
The Bills aren’t typically an ideal matchup, but they’re dealing with a couple of injuries on defense at the moment. Walker ultimately seems underpriced at just $7,800 on FanDuel.
Rachaad White ($5,700 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel)
White has been an unproductive runner for most of his career, and he’s started to lose work in the team’s backfield. They employed a three-man committee at the position last week, with White, Bucky Irving, and Sean Tucker all getting opportunities.
However, White remains the preferred pass-catcher out of the team’s backfield, and he put that on display last week. He caught six passes for 72 yards and two scores, and his receiving production could be even more valuable now that Chris Godwin and Mike Evans are out with injuries.
Additionally, Irving has missed a couple of practices to start the week. If he’s unable to go, White could end up seeing a larger share of the rushing pie than he did last week vs. the Ravens.