This Sunday is a late-October treat for fantasy football fans, with all 32 teams in action before several teams get their bye weeks in November. With only the three typical primetime matchups off the main slate, there are 13 games and 26 teams in play this weekend on DraftKings main slate. It should be a wild Sunday afternoon, with eight games kicking off at 1:00 p.m. ET and five games kicking off after 4:00 p.m. ET in the later wave.
The highest over/under of the week is from the matchup between the Packers and Jaguars, while the Lions edge out Green Bay for the highest implied team total. With so many games in play, though, there are so many angles to break down. It’s never too early to start strategizing for your NFL DFS lineups for Week 8. Even in the middle of the week, some potential values are already popping in our early projections, and you definitely want to have these values on your radar.
Throughout the season, every Wednesday, I’ll be taking a look at the players who are standing out as top values for the coming week by using the early projections in our NFL Player Models. Of course, these models update frequently.
Things will likely change between now and Sunday, but it’s still good to have a plan of attack.
If there’s news between now and lock — and there will be — the models will update to reflect that.
As always, they’re powered by Sean Koerner — one of the most accurate fantasy rankers in the industry.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Values
Bo Nix ($5,600) Denver Broncos (-9) vs. Carolina Panthers (43.5 total)
After getting a mini bye week after beating the Saints last week on Thursday Night Football, the Broncos have a great matchup at home against the struggling Panthers. Rookie QB Bo Nix has the team at 4-3 after their convincing win, and this week, he has the highest Projected Plus/Minus and Pts/Sal of any quarterback in both the projections from Chris Raybon and the projections from Sean Koerner.
Nix only completed 16-of-26 passes for 164 passing yards last week but added an impressive 75 rushing yards on 10 attempts. Even though he wasn’t part of any of Denver’s touchdowns, he still had a decent 14.06 DraftKings points.
He has shown plenty of upside due to this dual-threat potential and has over 19 DraftKings points in three of his last five starts and posted over 20 DraftKings points in each of his last two home games.
In Week 8, Nix should be a great value since he has a great matchup against the Panthers, who have allowed the seventh-most DraftKings points to the position. Opposing QBs have thrown for 14 touchdowns in seven weeks with an average of 228.3 passing yards and 23.4 rushing yards per game against Carolina.
Whether he does it on the ground or through the air, Nix should be able to return value in this week’s home matchup.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Values
Jalen McMillan ($3,700) Tampa Bay Buccaneers City (+2.5) vs. Atlanta (46 total)
The hot spot to shop for value WR this Sunday will be the Buccaneers, who lost both Chris Godwin (ankle) and probably Mike Evans (hamstring) on Monday night after salaries were released for Week 8. McMillan has the highest Projected Plus/Minus in an evenly-blended three-way aggregate of the projections from Koerner, Carty and THE BLITZ. He barely edges out his teammate Trey Palmer ($3,500) for the top spot with Sterling Shepard ($3,800) also a great value with the fourth-best Projected Plus/Minus at the position.
Of the three receivers who will help absorb all the available targets, McMillan has the highest upside. The rookie out of Washington was snagged in the third round of last year’s draft by the Bucs and possibly seen as a Godwin replacement if the veteran left as a free agent. He’ll get a chance to audition for the job now, and he won’t have to do a ton to be worth a look at this salary.
He had a career-high eight targets on Monday night, which is a good sign for his involvement moving forward. Only Godwin and Cade Otton ($3,500) got more attention from Baker Mayfield ($6,700). The bad news is that McMillan only hauled in three of those passes for 15 yards. He’ll need to improve that efficiency going forward for sure, but it looks like the opportunities will be there.
McMillan and the Bucs’ other receivers get a good matchup this week against the Falcons, who have allowed the ninth-most DraftKings points to receivers and gave up 130 receiving yards and three touchdowns to Tampa Bay’s receivers in their Week 5 meeting.
The rookie is no sure thing since he hasn’t proven it yet, but he is loaded with potential and comes at a bargain-basement salary this week.
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NFL DFS Running Back Values
Breece Hall ($7,300) New York Jets (-7) at New England Patriots (41.5 total)
Value doesn’t always have to mean super cheap, and with cheap receivers in the mix, it might be a good week to pay up for running backs. In the early projections, almost all the top Projected Plus/Minus numbers come from high-priced options, and at the top of the stack is the Jets’ Breece Hall, with the best Projected Plus/Minus and Pts/Sal of all running backs in the aggregated projections.
Hall has posted back-to-back monster fantasy weeks despite the Jets’ tough losses to the Bills and Steelers. He finished with 113 rushing yards and 24.9 DraftKings points against Buffalo and followed that up with 103 receiving yards and 29.1 DraftKings points against the Steelers last week.
While the Aaron Rodgers ($5,700) and Davante Adams ($7,100) connection has gotten most of the attention, Hall has been the Jets’ best playmaker and should be the focus of their offense as they try to get back in the win column with a good matchup this week against the Patriots.
New England’s run defense has been ugly, allowing a running back rushing touchdown in every game this season and allowing a total of 10 touchdowns to the position, along with averages of 122.7 rushing yards and 33 receiving yards per week. Hall scored a touchdown against them in Week 3 when he posted 18.3 fantasy points.
To take the pressure off the rest of the offense, Hall should carry the load again this week, and in this matchup, he’s in a smash spot to return value and be one of the top producers of the week.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Values
Cade Otton ($3,500) Tampa Bay Buccaneers City (+2.5) vs. Atlanta (46 total)
Since the Bucs will most likely be without both Godwin and Evans, Otton will be in line for all the work he can handle. He has the top Projected Plus/Minus of all tight ends this week and also the third-highest ceiling projection even though he has 16 tight ends expected to play that are priced higher than he is.
Last week, Otton set season highs across the board. He finished with eight catches on 10 targets for a total of 100 yards and 21 fantasy points, even without a touchdown. He was already on a pretty nice role before that big week and has exceeded salary-based expectations each of the last five weeks with an Average Plus/Minus of +4.6 per game. He has at least four targets in each of those five games, which includes a matchup against the same Falcons defense he’ll face this week.
Against Atlanta, Otton had 7.4 DraftKings points, but he should be able to outproduce that number in this rematch with much more volume flowing his way. In each of the two weeks since facing Otton, the Falcons have given up five catches to opposing tight ends, allowing 49 yards to the Panthers and 70 yards to the Seahawks.
Based on volume, Otton will have both a high floor and a high ceiling this week and is a true bargain at only $3,500.
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