NBA DFS (Wednesday, October 23): Top Model Picks and Value Plays on DraftKings

After Tuesday’s two-game slate, the NBA has 10 games on the schedule tonight. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.

Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.

You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.

Note: Projections, Ownership projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.

Become an All-Access Member Today

Lineup builder and optimizer

Real-time DFS models & projections

Data-driven analysis & tutorials
 

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Top Ceiling: Tyrese Maxey vs. Milwaukee Bucks – $9,000

Maxey is in a perfect situation Wednesday and is terrific high-end value. The 76ers begin their season short two stars, with both Joel Embiid (injury recovery) and Paul George (knee) out. Maxey is going to handle a huge workload as Philadelphia’s main option, and this is an excellent matchup vs. the Bucks, who ranked ninth in pace and 20th in defensive efficiency last season.

While we don’t have any data without George, given he has yet to make his 76ers’ debut, we have plenty of data for Maxey sans Embiid. Furthermore, let’s not forget the 76ers also no longer have Buddy Hield and De’Anthony Melton on their roster anymore. With these two players and Embiid off the floor last season, Maxey’s usage leaped 6.1 percentage points to 34.4%, and he produced 1.23 DraftKings PPM. Maxey averaged 47.1 DraftKings PPG in three matchups vs. the Bucks last season, and he brings the highest ceiling on the slate among point guards in our models.


Top Value: Dennis Schroder at Atlanta Hawks – $6,200

Schroder is an unrestricted free agent next summer, and he should have a solid year as one of the Nets’ primary players this season. The veteran closed last season in strong form, topping 30 DraftKings points in six of his final 10 starts, while handling a 20% usage rate for the month of April. Schroder averaged 0.92 DraftKings PPM for the season, and Wednesday presents an elite spot for him vs. the Hawks, who ranked fourth in pace and 27th in defensive efficiency last season.

Atlanta is Schroder’s original team, and the revenge factor has always been real for him. Schroder erupted for 45 DraftKings when he last faced the Hawks in February, and he is amassing 30.5 DraftKings PPG in 12 career matchups with his former club, via the Trends Tool. In our models, Schroder is rating as a top-five value on the slate.

Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Top Ceiling: Donovan Mitchell at Toronto Raptors – $8,700

Mitchell easily brings the highest ceiling among shooting guards in our models, and it is for good reason. The guard is in a prime spot vs. a Raptors team that ranked 11th in pace and 26th in defensive efficiency last season, and as a result, the Cavaliers boast the fourth-highest implied team total on the slate (116 points). Mitchell led Cleveland with 1.4 DraftKings PPM and a 31.2% usage rate last season, and he erupted for 54.75 DraftKings points in a matchup vs. Toronto this past January.

Additionally, for the 25 occasions he played behind an implied team total of at least 115 points, Mitchell was a stud with 51.5 DraftKings PPG, via the Trends Tool.


Top Value: Collin Sexton vs. Memphis Grizzlies – $6,100

Sexton finished last season with a $7,400 salary on DraftKings, and he is a tough value to ignore at this discounted price tag. Sexton remains the Jazz’s starting shooting guard, and with no major additions to their roster this summer, his role should remain large. Last season, Sexton led Utah with a 27.7% usage rate, lifting him to 1.2 DraftKings PPM.

The Grizzlies will be without former Defensive Player of the Year Jaren Jackson Jr. (hamstring), and this game’s total is the third-highest on the slate (228.5 points). Plus, Memphis is only favored by three points. This is an awesome environment, and Sexton should have no issues exceeding five-times value in this spot.

Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper promo code LABS1 for a $100 deposit match.

 

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Top Ceiling: Pascal Siakam at Detroit Pistons – $8,300

The up-tempo Pacers kick off their season in Detroit tonight. Not only does Indiana carry the highest implied team total on the slate (120.25 points), this game’s total is also the largest on the board (235.5 points). Siakam has been an excellent fit with Indiana – he has averaged 1.2 DraftKings PPM and a team-high 26% usage rate with the team – and the veteran is an appealing way to gain a share of their offense Wednesday.

The forward thrived vs. the Pistons last season, recording at least 43 DraftKings in three of his four matchups with the team, and he is generating 41.3 DraftKings PPG when playing behind an implied team total of 118 points or higher since joining Indiana (28 games), via the Trends Tool.


Top Value: Kelly Oubre Jr. vs. Milwaukee Bucks – $6,400

With Embiid and George missing, Oubre Jr. should operate as the 76ers’ second option behind Maxey tonight. In the 27 games he played without Embiid last season, Oubre Jr. handled the second-highest usage rate on the team (26%), and he supplied 33.4 DraftKings PPG, via the On/Off Tool.

As noted above, the Bucks ranked ninth in pace and 20th in defensive efficiency last season, and Oubre Jr. topped 30 DraftKings points in two of his three matchups with the club a year ago. The wing is a safe bet for over 30 DraftKings points tonight and is easily the best small forward value on the board.


NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo at Philadelphia 76ers – $11,000

Antetokounmpo’s salary reached $12,000 on DraftKings last season, and he is an outstanding value at only $11,000 tonight, especially with Khris Middleton (ankles) sidelined. With the wing off the floor last season, Antetokounmpo’s assist rate rose 2.3 percentage points, and he scored 1.63 DraftKings PPM.

With Embiid missing for the 76ers, this is an appealing matchup for Antetokounmpo. Philadelphia’s defensive rating dropped to 115.8 with Embiid off the court last season – which would have ranked 23rd for the season – and in the two matchups Antetokounmpo faced the 76ers sans Embiid, Antetokounmpo contributed 57.9 DraftKings PPG.


Top Value: Jabari Walker vs. Golden State Warriors – $3,300

Walker is set to start this season as one of the Blazers’ main big men off the bench with Robert Williams (knee) on the shelf, and the former is far too cheap for this expected role. Walker should see right around 20 minutes tonight vs. the Warriors, putting him in a prime position to destroy this near-minimum salary.

Last season, Walker collected 0.9 DraftKings PPM, and he supplied 30 DraftKings PPG in the final 10 games of the season where he received at least 20 minutes. Walker is rating as the No. 1 value on the slate in our models, and he is a necessary play tonight to help you fit multiple studs into your lineup.

 

NBA DFS Center Picks

Top Ceiling: Nikola Vucevic at New Orleans Pelicans – $8,300

Vucevic was on a roll to end last season, scoring 49 DraftKings PPG in his final four starts, and this is a sneaky strong spot for the center. With Jonas Valanciunas and Larry Nance Jr. out of town, the Pelicans are very thin up front, with their current depth chart listing the 6-foot-7 Herbert Jones as their starting center. To make matters worse, Zion Williamson (questionable, illness) is in danger of missing this season opener.

Even if the forward suits up, New Orleans should be weak in the paint, and Vucevic should dominate with a large double-double. This game presents the fourth-highest total on the slate (226.5 points), and in totals of at least 225 points last season, Vucevic produced 41.2 DraftKings PPG (20 games), via the Trends Tool.


Top Value: Nick Richards at Houston Rockets – $4,000

With Mark Williams (foot) out, Richards is the Hornets’ starting center and a strong punt play for this full slate. Richards started at center in all of Charlotte’s preseason games, and he should see 25-30 minutes tonight as Charlotte’s best option to match up with Alperen Sengun. Richards provided 0.9 DraftKings PPM last season, and he was effective against Houston, scoring 28.9 DraftKings PPG across two matchups.

Richards was priced over $5,000 for most of last season, and he needs to be rostered tonight at this low price tag that certainly won’t last.

After Tuesday’s two-game slate, the NBA has 10 games on the schedule tonight. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.

Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.

You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.

Note: Projections, Ownership projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.

Become an All-Access Member Today

Lineup builder and optimizer

Real-time DFS models & projections

Data-driven analysis & tutorials
 

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Top Ceiling: Tyrese Maxey vs. Milwaukee Bucks – $9,000

Maxey is in a perfect situation Wednesday and is terrific high-end value. The 76ers begin their season short two stars, with both Joel Embiid (injury recovery) and Paul George (knee) out. Maxey is going to handle a huge workload as Philadelphia’s main option, and this is an excellent matchup vs. the Bucks, who ranked ninth in pace and 20th in defensive efficiency last season.

While we don’t have any data without George, given he has yet to make his 76ers’ debut, we have plenty of data for Maxey sans Embiid. Furthermore, let’s not forget the 76ers also no longer have Buddy Hield and De’Anthony Melton on their roster anymore. With these two players and Embiid off the floor last season, Maxey’s usage leaped 6.1 percentage points to 34.4%, and he produced 1.23 DraftKings PPM. Maxey averaged 47.1 DraftKings PPG in three matchups vs. the Bucks last season, and he brings the highest ceiling on the slate among point guards in our models.


Top Value: Dennis Schroder at Atlanta Hawks – $6,200

Schroder is an unrestricted free agent next summer, and he should have a solid year as one of the Nets’ primary players this season. The veteran closed last season in strong form, topping 30 DraftKings points in six of his final 10 starts, while handling a 20% usage rate for the month of April. Schroder averaged 0.92 DraftKings PPM for the season, and Wednesday presents an elite spot for him vs. the Hawks, who ranked fourth in pace and 27th in defensive efficiency last season.

Atlanta is Schroder’s original team, and the revenge factor has always been real for him. Schroder erupted for 45 DraftKings when he last faced the Hawks in February, and he is amassing 30.5 DraftKings PPG in 12 career matchups with his former club, via the Trends Tool. In our models, Schroder is rating as a top-five value on the slate.

Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Top Ceiling: Donovan Mitchell at Toronto Raptors – $8,700

Mitchell easily brings the highest ceiling among shooting guards in our models, and it is for good reason. The guard is in a prime spot vs. a Raptors team that ranked 11th in pace and 26th in defensive efficiency last season, and as a result, the Cavaliers boast the fourth-highest implied team total on the slate (116 points). Mitchell led Cleveland with 1.4 DraftKings PPM and a 31.2% usage rate last season, and he erupted for 54.75 DraftKings points in a matchup vs. Toronto this past January.

Additionally, for the 25 occasions he played behind an implied team total of at least 115 points, Mitchell was a stud with 51.5 DraftKings PPG, via the Trends Tool.


Top Value: Collin Sexton vs. Memphis Grizzlies – $6,100

Sexton finished last season with a $7,400 salary on DraftKings, and he is a tough value to ignore at this discounted price tag. Sexton remains the Jazz’s starting shooting guard, and with no major additions to their roster this summer, his role should remain large. Last season, Sexton led Utah with a 27.7% usage rate, lifting him to 1.2 DraftKings PPM.

The Grizzlies will be without former Defensive Player of the Year Jaren Jackson Jr. (hamstring), and this game’s total is the third-highest on the slate (228.5 points). Plus, Memphis is only favored by three points. This is an awesome environment, and Sexton should have no issues exceeding five-times value in this spot.

Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper promo code LABS1 for a $100 deposit match.

 

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Top Ceiling: Pascal Siakam at Detroit Pistons – $8,300

The up-tempo Pacers kick off their season in Detroit tonight. Not only does Indiana carry the highest implied team total on the slate (120.25 points), this game’s total is also the largest on the board (235.5 points). Siakam has been an excellent fit with Indiana – he has averaged 1.2 DraftKings PPM and a team-high 26% usage rate with the team – and the veteran is an appealing way to gain a share of their offense Wednesday.

The forward thrived vs. the Pistons last season, recording at least 43 DraftKings in three of his four matchups with the team, and he is generating 41.3 DraftKings PPG when playing behind an implied team total of 118 points or higher since joining Indiana (28 games), via the Trends Tool.


Top Value: Kelly Oubre Jr. vs. Milwaukee Bucks – $6,400

With Embiid and George missing, Oubre Jr. should operate as the 76ers’ second option behind Maxey tonight. In the 27 games he played without Embiid last season, Oubre Jr. handled the second-highest usage rate on the team (26%), and he supplied 33.4 DraftKings PPG, via the On/Off Tool.

As noted above, the Bucks ranked ninth in pace and 20th in defensive efficiency last season, and Oubre Jr. topped 30 DraftKings points in two of his three matchups with the club a year ago. The wing is a safe bet for over 30 DraftKings points tonight and is easily the best small forward value on the board.


NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo at Philadelphia 76ers – $11,000

Antetokounmpo’s salary reached $12,000 on DraftKings last season, and he is an outstanding value at only $11,000 tonight, especially with Khris Middleton (ankles) sidelined. With the wing off the floor last season, Antetokounmpo’s assist rate rose 2.3 percentage points, and he scored 1.63 DraftKings PPM.

With Embiid missing for the 76ers, this is an appealing matchup for Antetokounmpo. Philadelphia’s defensive rating dropped to 115.8 with Embiid off the court last season – which would have ranked 23rd for the season – and in the two matchups Antetokounmpo faced the 76ers sans Embiid, Antetokounmpo contributed 57.9 DraftKings PPG.


Top Value: Jabari Walker vs. Golden State Warriors – $3,300

Walker is set to start this season as one of the Blazers’ main big men off the bench with Robert Williams (knee) on the shelf, and the former is far too cheap for this expected role. Walker should see right around 20 minutes tonight vs. the Warriors, putting him in a prime position to destroy this near-minimum salary.

Last season, Walker collected 0.9 DraftKings PPM, and he supplied 30 DraftKings PPG in the final 10 games of the season where he received at least 20 minutes. Walker is rating as the No. 1 value on the slate in our models, and he is a necessary play tonight to help you fit multiple studs into your lineup.

 

NBA DFS Center Picks

Top Ceiling: Nikola Vucevic at New Orleans Pelicans – $8,300

Vucevic was on a roll to end last season, scoring 49 DraftKings PPG in his final four starts, and this is a sneaky strong spot for the center. With Jonas Valanciunas and Larry Nance Jr. out of town, the Pelicans are very thin up front, with their current depth chart listing the 6-foot-7 Herbert Jones as their starting center. To make matters worse, Zion Williamson (questionable, illness) is in danger of missing this season opener.

Even if the forward suits up, New Orleans should be weak in the paint, and Vucevic should dominate with a large double-double. This game presents the fourth-highest total on the slate (226.5 points), and in totals of at least 225 points last season, Vucevic produced 41.2 DraftKings PPG (20 games), via the Trends Tool.


Top Value: Nick Richards at Houston Rockets – $4,000

With Mark Williams (foot) out, Richards is the Hornets’ starting center and a strong punt play for this full slate. Richards started at center in all of Charlotte’s preseason games, and he should see 25-30 minutes tonight as Charlotte’s best option to match up with Alperen Sengun. Richards provided 0.9 DraftKings PPM last season, and he was effective against Houston, scoring 28.9 DraftKings PPG across two matchups.

Richards was priced over $5,000 for most of last season, and he needs to be rostered tonight at this low price tag that certainly won’t last.

About the Author

Alex Hunter is an avid DFS player who produces NFL and NBA content for FantasyLabs. He has been playing DFS for nearly a decade, dating back to the DraftStreet days and has been in the fantasy/betting content business for over eight years. Alex earned his bachelor’s degree in communications at Worcester State University and has contributed content for some of the biggest outlets in the industry, such as DraftKings Network, Stokastic (formerly Awesemo) and RotoWire, covering NBA, NFL and PGA. Alex is a data-driven analyst that has multiple wins and high finishes in GPPs on his DFS resume, as well as years of being a successful cash-game player. If you have any questions or need any lineup advice, Alex can be found @Hunta512 on Twitter.