After three stops in three states over the last three weeks, the PGA TOUR takes things international this week and heads across the Pacific to Japan for this year’s ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP. This tournament draws one of the strongest fields of the FedExFall events and has a unique format on a familiar course for this week’s fantasy golf contests.
The ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP is the first PGA TOUR event regularly held in Japan and co-sanctioned by the Japan Golf Tour. It took place in the US in 2020 due to the pandemic but has been back in Narashino, Japan for each of the last three years. In each of those seasons, the tournament took place at ACCORDIA GOLF Narashino Country Club, which will again host the event in 2024.
The course is a par 70, measuring just 7,079 yards with five par 3s and three par 5s. While traditional American par 70s have four par 3s and two par 5s, this setup offers more variance in scoring and risk/reward opportunities. Although both the par 3s and par 5s are very scorable, the course typically plays close to par depending on weather conditions. The other unique feature of this course is that it features multiple greens on each hole to deal with the traffic of all the players and allow year-round usage. If a player lands on the green not being used for this tournament, they get a free drop off that surface no closer to the intended hole.
For the most part, the tree-lined fairways and strategically placed bunkers provide the most difficulty to the course, and the players will try to set up rare birdies on smaller-than-average bentgrass greens. Strokes Gained: Approach will be a key metric to target this week with Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, Scrambling, Bogey Avoidance and Strokes Gained: Putting on bentgrass greens also important stats to consider.
The tournament this week is the FedExCup Fall’s only invitational. The field includes 60 players from the PGA TOUR and 18 from the Japan Golf Tour and sponsors exemptions. In all, the field is made up of 78 golfers who participate in this no-cut event. Without a cut to worry about, it’s a great week to swing for the fences and take risks in your fantasy golf lineup since all players will play all four rounds barring injury or withdrawal.
The field is headlined by World No. 2 Xander Schauffele and defending champion Collin Morikawa returning to the field for a stroke play event for the first time since the TOUR Championship at the end of the FedExCup Playoffs. Hideki Matsuyama is always a popular play in his home nation, and the field also includes well-known names like Sahith Theegala, Sungjae Im, Max Homa and Justin Thomas.
This tournament is the fifth event of the eight in the FedExCup Fall. Next week is a scheduled week off before three straight weeks for players to secure their PGA TOUR card and improve their status for the Signature Events at the start of next season. After this tournament in Japan, the PGA TOUR will stop in Mexico and Bermuda before wrapping up the Fall at The RSM Classic at Sea Island in Georgia.
The focus of this post is strong GPP options who have lower ownership projections than their potential performance. Finding high-leverage plays is critical for GPP success, so the picks here go against the grain, looking for under-owned options.
All Strokes Gained metrics referenced are from the Rabbit Hole.
Usually, I rely heavily on the Stroked Gained Model in FantasyLabs, which is very predictive of results. I also tend to lean into players who excel in Strokes Gained: Approach, which is more sustainable week-to-week than a hot putter.
Since these are GPP picks, we can accept more risk in exchange for getting a higher ceiling. High-risk, high-reward options with low ownership create the “boom-or-bust” style lineups that often lead to large-field success. To find guidance for all contest types, check out our full Daily Fantasy Golf coverage each week.
No matter what type of format you prefer, be sure to use the FantasyLabs PGA Models to help you make the best choices. These models use stats and simulations to highlight different players’ strengths and weaknesses. A few critical new stats for GPP play are Perfect% and SimLeverage, which are further explained here.
As you dig into the numbers, you can enjoy the many tools FantasyLabs offers, including the Lineup Optimizer, which effortlessly creates up to 300 lineups. Alternatively, you can use the Lineup Builder if you prefer a more hands-on approach.
Check out my top picks in each price range listed below.
Editors note: SimLeverage and Perfect% numbers may change after this piece is published. Be sure to check the PGA Models for any updates to the sims.
High-Priced PGA DFS Picks
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Unless otherwise noted, all Strokes Gained metrics referenced in this article come via the Rabbit Hole.
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Sahith Theegala $10,000
Four players in the field this week have five-figure salaries–Xander Schauffele ($11,500), Collin Morikawa ($10,500), Hideki Matsuyama ($10,200), and Theegala. Theegala matches the third-most Pro Trends in the field and has finished in the top 20 here in each of the last two seasons. His ownership projection is only around 15%, which is the lowest of all the players priced at over $9,500.
Theegala has also played more recently than many of the big names in the field since he teed it up at the Procore Championship just over a month ago. He finished in the top 10 in Napa during his title defense, giving him nine top 10s on the season.
He missed the cut at The Open Championship, but other than that has made the cut in each of his last 10 events, exceeding salary-based expectations in four of his last five.
Theegala has proven he can contend on this track and be among the best players in the world when he’s on top of his game. He seems to be on the verge of a breakthrough season next year, and he can get an early start with another strong showing in Japan this week.
Schauffele and Morkikawa are both great plays as well, but Theegala is a less obvious play with almost just as much upside. He has excelled on tight, accuracy-focused tracks like this one and has the advantage of playing the Procore, so rust shouldn’t be as much of an issue as it may be for some of the other top names.
Sungjae Im $9,800
Im is just under $10,000 this week, but he offers the highest SimLeverage in the entire field. He has the third-highest ceiling projection behind only Morikawa and Schauffele and the second-highest Perfect% behind only Morikawa. Despite those projections, his ownership projection is under 20%, making him a nice pay-up play that brings both savings and a little leverage if partnered with another big name or at the top of a more balanced lineup.
Im didn’t have a spectacular season by his high standards and hasn’t won on the PGA TOUR since the 2021 Shriners Children’s Open. He still did finish seventh in the FedExCup standings, though. He made the cut in 19 of his 25 events and posted eight top 10s, and his form improved as the year went on. Since the PGA Championship in mid-May, he made the cut in 9-of-10 tournaments with top 10s at the Memorial, the Charles Schwab Challenge, the Travelers, the Genesis Scottish Open, The Open Championship, and the TOUR Championship.
Im will obviously be comfortable on this style of course and familiar with the layout. He finished third on this track in 2019 and 12th in this event last year.
Im ranks second in the field in Total Stroked Gained over the last 30 rounds and ranks in the top 10 in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, Stroked Gained: Around-the-Green, and Strokes Gained: Putting over that span.
As long as his ownership level stays under 20%, he’ll be a great source of leverage and savings this week.
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Mid-Priced PGA DFS Picks
Max Greyserman $8,700
Of the options between $8,000 and $9,000, Greyserman has the highest SimLeverage and the highest Perfect%. He has the fifth-highest SimLeverage in the entire field since he has the sixth-highest Perfect% in the field but an ownership projection under 15%.
Greyserman comes in on a great run, having exceeded salary-based expectations in nine straight PGA TOUR events dating back to the U.S. Open in June. There may be some rust since he hasn’t played since the FedExCup Playoffs, but he finished no worse than T33 in his last nine events, including runner-up finishes at the 3M Open and the Wyndham Championship.
He ranks seventh in the field in Total Strokes Gained over his last 30 rounds and first in Strokes Gained: Putting. He has excelled putting on Bentgrass and also ranks in the top 10 in the field in bogey avoidance over the last 36 rounds.
Greyserman is already in the FedExCup top 50, so his status is secure, and he can just keep chasing that breakthrough victory.
J.J. Spaun $8,300
Last week, I had Spaun in my picks, and he exceeded salary-based expectations for the ninth time in his last 10 tournaments. His only letdown during that span was a withdrawal in Mississippi. Last week, he finished T34 after a Final Round fade, but he still has great upside if he can finish stronger this week.
Spaun ranks fifth in the field in Total Strokes Gained over his last 30 rounds and third in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach over that span as well. His putter can be a little streaky, but when it runs true, he can contend on courses like this one. He has the second-highest ceiling projection of the players under $9,000, behind only Harry Hall ($8,000).
At ACCORDIA GOLF Narashino Country Club, Spaun has finished in the top 25 in each of the last two seasons. He was T25 in 2022 and T6 last year.
Spaun is currently No. 100 in the FedExCup Fall, so he’s in good position to stay as a full-time member of the PGA TOUR even though his winner’s exemption for his triumph at the 2022 Valero Texas Open expires this season. He is finishing the season strong and has both a high floor and a high ceiling in Japan this week.
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Value PGA DFS Picks
Rico Hoey $7,600
I’ve been riding Rico since the 29-year-old from Manila turned his season around in late June. He surged to a T6 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic with four rounds in the 60s and has been turning in solid results ever since. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in nine of his 10 tournaments dating back to that week and is coming off a third-place finish last week in Las Vegas.
Hoey hasn’t played this event before, but over the last 30 rounds, he ranks ninth in the field in Total Strokes Gained and also ninth in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. He ranks fifth in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee during that span as well, and his game should fit the course well.
This week, Hoey has the highest ceiling projection and the highest Perfect% of all players with salaries under $8,000. He’s a little chalky with an ownership projection approaching 15%, but he’s still a strong enough play with a high enough ceiling to remain be one of my top picks this week. Just be sure to differentiate your lineup with some of the other picks in your Hoey lineups.
Kensei Hirata $7,000
Hirata is only 23 years old but has already racked up six international wins, including four victories in 2024, highlighted by three wins in September on the Japan Golf Tour. Last year at the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP, Hirata finished T6 with scores that improved in each successive round.
Hirata only played two events on the top tours in 2024, missing the cut on the number at the Sony Open and making the cut on his way to a T53 at the ISPS HANDA – Championship on the DP World Tour.
This week at the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP, Hirata has an ownership projection under 2%. He ranks in the top 10 in SimLeverage under $7,500 and brings a high ceiling given his success in Japan this year and great form as he returns to a course where he had success last season.
Sleeper PGA DFS Picks
Lee Hodges $6,800
Hodges missed the cut last week in Las Vegas after a rough second round in the wind, but he had been on a solid run before that, highlighted by a T8 at the Black Desert Championship two weeks ago. It was Hodges’ first top 10 of the season but his sixth top 25. He starts this week at 78th in the FedExCup Fall rankings, and he would be on track to keep his PGA TOUR card if he hadn’t already guaranteed it through next season with his win at the 3M Open last summer.
This week, Hodges ranks in the top 10 in ceiling projections of the players ranked under $7,000 and has an ownership projection of just under 5%.
In the last two years, Hodges has finished in the top 25 at the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP, with a T23 in 2022 and a T21 last year. He could end up a great value if he continues his form from Utah two years ago and posts another strong finish.
Nate Lashley $6,500
Lashley’s game could be a good fit for Narashino since he ranks third in the field this week on par-3 scoring, and this course has so many Par 3s. He also ranks third in this field in Good Drive Perctange this season.
While the 41-year-old PGA TOUR veteran has made just half his cuts this season and posted just one top 10, he has been able to make the cut and exceed salary-based expectations in seven of his past 10 events. He finished T29 last week at the Shriners and will look to post another solid finish this week.
He withdrew from this event back in 2019 but finished T41 in his return last year. This week, he has the second-highest ceiling projection of all golfers at $6,500 or lower and an ownership projection under 5%. He’s a flier play with good upside based on his recent form, and as long as he plays the full week, he should be fairly bust-proof.
