NFL DFS Showdown Picks Breakdown (October 21) for Ravens vs. Buccaneers Monday Night Football

We have another Monday Night Football doubleheader in Week 7, with the first game featuring the Baltimore Ravens and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Ravens are listed as 3.5-point road favorites, while the total sits at 49.5.

After an 0-2 start, the Ravens have completely righted the ship in Baltimore. They’ve ripped off four straight wins and are back to looking like one of the best teams in football. Their offense has been particularly potent, ranking first in yards per game and fourth in points.

The Buccaneers have also won four of their first six games, and they’re coming off an absolute demolition of the Saints last week. They racked up nearly 600 yards of total offense with 51 points, and they’re second in points per game for the season.

Which offense has the edge in this matchup? Let’s dive in.

Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.

Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.

You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:

NFL DFS Stud Picks

This game has a ton of high-end fantasy options, but Lamar Jackson stands out above the rest. He’s been the No. 1 quarterback in fantasy this season, averaging 24.2 fantasy points per game. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of six outings, providing an excellent combination of ceiling and floor.

Jackson has improved steadily as a passer since entering the NFL, and he leads the league with an average of 9.31 adjusted yards per attempt this season. He’s gone over 300 passing yards in his past two outings, and he’s thrown for seven touchdowns over his past three.

Of course, Jackson remains one of the top rushing threats in football. He’s averaged more than 67 rushing yards per game this season, and he’s added two touchdowns.

From a matchup standpoint, there’s no reason not to like Jackson this week. The Buccaneers have allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to the position, and Jackson’s Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.8 is the top mark on the slate. He leads all players in each of the three major categories – median, ceiling, and projected Plus/Minus – so he’s an elite option.

Derrick Henry is priced just below Jackson, and his Ravens’ tenure started with a whimper vs. the Chiefs in Week 1. He managed just 46 yards on 13 carries, though he did manage to find the end zone.

Since then, Henry has been unstoppable. He’s scored at least 16.6 DraftKings points in five straight games, and he’s had at least 28.2 in three of them. He’s averaged an absurd 6.21 yards per carry over that time frame, and he leads the league with nine total touchdowns. 

As good as the matchup is for Jackson, it might be even better for Henry. The Buccaneers are just 25th in rush defense EPA.

On the other side, the Buccaneers are led by two stud receivers: Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Evans has historically been the big-play threat – he had at least 13 touchdowns in three of the past four years – while Godwin has been more of the “move the chains” guy. Evans also had a slight edge from a target standpoint, making him the better fantasy producer.

The script has changed slightly in 2024. Evans remains the bigger touchdown threat, but Godwin has been the clear top guy from a target standpoint. He has a 29% target share for the year, while Evans is at 22%. As a result, Godwin has averaged more than 20 PPR points per game, while Evans has averaged 14.3.

The Ravens have historically had a tough defense, but they’ve clearly regressed in 2024. They’re 23rd in pass defense EPA, and they’ve allowed the second-most passing yards per game. It’s a solid spot for both players to produce, but our NFL Models give a slight edge to Godwin given the minimal price difference.

NFL DFS Midrange Picks

With two stud pass-catchers, Baker Mayfield’s $9,800 salary feels a smidge disrespectful. After all, he’s the No. 2 quarterback in terms of fantasy points per game this season (23.4 PPG).

Mayfield does things in a different way than Jackson. He’s not a complete non-factor with his legs – he’s averaged 22.7 rushing yards with two total touchdowns – but the vast majority of his value comes from his arm. He leads the league with 15 touchdown passes while averaging a career-best 248.2 yards per game.

Mayfield has also done his best work with the Buccaneers as an underdog. He’s averaged 20.6 DraftKings points per game in that split, good for an average Plus/Minus of +1.91 (per the Trends tool). That’s roughly two more fantasy points than he’s averaged as a favorite (18.59).

Mayfield trails only Jackson on this slate in median, ceiling, and projected Plus/Minus.

Zay Flowers has emerged as the Ravens’ unquestioned top pass-catcher this season. He’s racked up a 28% target share, including a 36% mark last week vs. the Commanders. He has at least nine targets in four of six games, with the two exceptions being blowout wins vs. the Cowboys and Bills.

The only thing keeping Flowers from being a truly elite fantasy receiver is where his targets are coming. He does most of his damage near the line of scrimmage, with an average depth of target (aDOT) of just 7.6 yards. His 24% air yards share ranks merely tied for 50th at the position. That makes Flowers far more valuable in PPR formats.

Regardless, Flowers stands out as underpriced at just $8,600. He trails only the two quarterbacks in terms of projected Plus/Minus.

The Buccaneers’ RB situation will be important to monitor before kickoff. Rachaad White missed last week’s contest with a foot injury, and he’s questionable heading into Monday Night Football. However, he was able to practice on a limited basis, so he at least has a chance to return to the lineup.

Unfortunately, this situation looks like a bit of a headache. White and Bucky Irving have operated as a two-man committee for most of the year, but Sean Tucker got into the mix last week. He was extremely impressive – he had 14 carries, three receptions, 192 scrimmage yards, and two touchdowns – so he’s earned a bigger role moving forward. The coaching staff has stated that this could be a “hot hand” situation moving forward, so none of them would have a guaranteed role.

That makes White sitting out the best-case scenario for fantasy purposes. A two-man committee would obviously be much more beneficial than a three-man one. If White is active, both he and Irving stand out as overpriced.

The fact that the Ravens have been a pass funnel also works against them. They’re No. 4 in rush defense EPA, so teams have had much more success throwing against this defense.

Rashod Bateman and Isaiah Likely round out this price range, and they’ve been the next two men up in the Ravens’ passing attack. Bateman has a 16% target share and 25% air yards share for the season, while Likely is at 16% and 18%, respectively. Likely also leads the team with 40% of their endzone targets this season.

Neither player stands out as an elite value, but both players make for great stacking partners with Jackson. Likely has the top correlation with Jackson on DraftKings (+0.49), while Bateman is No. 2 (+0.35). Ironically, Flowers checks in at just +0.17, which is not what you would expect for a No. 1 receiver.

NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks

• Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play for the single-game format. The kickers figure to garner more ownership than the defenses in what is expected to be a high-scoring affair.
• Mark Andrews ($4,800 DraftKings) – Andrews has been a massive fantasy disappointment this season, but he’s posted back-to-back decent games. His target share has been at 14% in those contests, which is better than Likely’s over the same time frame.
• Cade Otton ($4,600 DraftKings) – Otton is on the field more than most tight ends. He has an 86% route participation for the year, and Travis Kelce and Trey McBride are the only other tight ends above 85%. He also has a target share of at least 17% in four straight games, so he’s underpriced at $4,600.
• Sean Tucker ($4,000 DraftKings) – Tucker would be tough to roster if White is active, but he would warrant some consideration if he sits. 
• Justice Hill ($3,800 DraftKings) – Hill is the Ravens’ pass-catching specialist out of the backfield, so he has more viability in games where the Ravens have to pass. This could be one of them, and Hill has some sneaky stacking upside with Jackson.
• Sterling Shepard ($3,000 DraftKings) – Shepard has been the Buccaneers’ No. 3 receiver of late, and he posted an 83% route participation last week. That’s a much better number than his price tag would suggest.
• Nelson Agholor ($2,800 DraftKings) – Agholor hasn’t seen a ton of snaps as the Ravens’ No. 3 receiver, but he’s been targeted on 16% of his routes run.
• Jalen McMillan ($2,000 DraftKings) – McMillan was the Bucs’ No. 3 receiver to start the year, but he missed a few games with an injury. He had just a 15% route participation in his return to the lineup last week.