Nailing the running back spots is essential for constructing a solid DFS lineup. It’s a bit easier to project than the receivers, where touchdowns and big plays are going to result in weekly variance. The workloads for the top running backs are much more stable, so they’re typically more consistent fantasy producers.
However, that also results in some of the heaviest chalk you’ll see across the industry. How do you handle those players each week?
In this piece, I highlight running backs who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
Top NFL DFS Cash Game Options
Kyren Williams ($8,100 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel)
Williams has cemented his status as a surefire RB1 in 2024. He was a breakout star last year, but after the team drafted Blake Corum in the third round, there were some concerns that he wouldn’t have the same workload this season. Williams has responded by averaging 19.4 PPR points per game, making him the No. 6 running back through the first six weeks.
From a workload perspective, Williams has one of the most desirable in the league. He’s handled 77% of the Rams’ carries this season, including 87% from inside the five-yard line. He’s also played on the majority of the passing down snaps, though it hasn’t translated into a ton of targets. Corum has been a virtual non-factor, though he did steal a few goal-line touches in Week 5.
Williams should have an absolute field day against the Raiders this Sunday. Their defense has been dreadful this season, and they’re merely 27th in rush defense EPA.
The Rams are also favored by a full touchdown, which sets up a perfect game script for Williams. Running backs tend to get more carries in games that their team is winning, and Williams has some drastic splits as a favorite. Since the start of last season, Williams has averaged 25.63 DraftKings points in nine games as a favorite, good for an average Plus/Minus of +10.94. He’s averaged just 16.48 DraftKings points in 11 games as a dog, so it’s a pretty huge disparity (per the Trends tool).
Add it all up, and Williams is the slam-dunk top option if paying up at the position.
Chuba Hubbard ($6,500 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel)
If every cloud has a silver lining, Hubbard is the silver lining for the disaster that is the Panthers’ offense. Switching to Andy Dalton at quarterback gave the team a small shot in the arm, but Dalton is what he is at this point in his career. He’s proven to be a bottom-tier starter or high-end backup, so he was never going to be their savior.
Despite the offense sputtering over the past few weeks, Hubbard continues to provide consistent production in the backfield. He continues to carve out a larger share for himself on a weekly basis, culminating with 82% of the team’s carries last week vs. the Falcons. He’s averaged a robust 5.6 yards per carry this season, so there’s no reason for him to be splitting touches with the ineffective Miles Sanders.
With his volume growing, Hubbard has put some solid fantasy performances together of late. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five straight games on DraftKings, and he’s scored at least 15.3 DraftKings points in each of his past four.
In addition to his excellent rushing numbers, Hubbard also has at least four targets in five straight games. His ability to contribute as a pass-catcher keeps him viable even in games where the Panthers get blown out. And there have been a lot of those this season.
They’re big underdogs once again this week vs. the Commanders, but Washington’s defense can be vulnerable at times. They’re merely 26th in rush defense EPA, so Hubbard should be effective regardless of the number of opportunities he ultimately receives.
Kenneth Walker ($7,300 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel)
Walker stands out as one of the top options at the position on FanDuel. He’s usable across the industry, but his 81% Bargain Rating on FanDuel is one of the top marks on the slate.
Walker and the Seahawks have had to run the gauntlet recently, playing three games in an 11-day stretch vs. the Lions, Giants, and 49ers. That’s not easy against anyone, but facing two of the best teams in the NFC during that stretch is borderline unfair.
Things finally get a bit easier for the Seahawks this week. They’ll have a little bit of extra time to prepare after playing on Thursday Night Football last week, and the Falcons defense has been below average. They’re just 21st in defensive EPA this season, and they’re 24th against the run.
Walker hasn’t had a ton of opportunities to carry the rock recently, but he’s made up for it with increased usage in the passing game. He has eight targets in back-to-back games, which are tied for the best mark of his career.
That makes Walker pretty much gamescript-proof. If the Seahawks are winning, Walker should handle the majority of the team’s rushing attempts in a good matchup. If they aren’t, Walker can still get there by catching passes. It gives him a really safe floor, which is ideal for cash game purposes.
Now available: our NFL DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
Top NFL DFS Tournament Options
Bijan Robinson ($7,100 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel)
Williams has the top ceiling projection in our NFL Models, and it’s not particularly close. After that, it’s a bit more congested. Walker, Saquon Barkley, and Robinson are all separated by just a few points, but Robinson stands out as the best value. He’s priced at just $7,100, while his 90% Bargain Rating is easily the top mark of the trio.
Robinson had just 39% of the Falcons’ rushing attempts last week, but I’m not too worried about that. The game was a blowout, so Robinson wasn’t really needed in the second half. He still finished with 95 yards and two touchdowns, and his 25.5 DraftKings points were his best mark of the year.
The Falcons are also listed as three-point favorites in the game with the second-highest total of the week (51 points). They’re currently implied for 27.0 points, which trails only the Guardians’ mark of 29.75.
Robinson hasn’t had the best season, but this is a great spot for him to build off the positive momentum he started last week.
Aaron Jones ($6,500 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel)
Jones suffered an injury in the team’s last game, but after a bye week, he appears set to return to the lineup. He practiced in a limited capacity on Thursday, which puts him on track to suit up Sunday vs. the Lions.
Through the first four weeks, Jones was operating as the Vikings’ clear top running back. He had 59% of the team’s carries, including at least 68% in Weeks 3 and 4. Jones has always been an extremely efficient runner – he’s averaged 5.0 yards per attempt for his career – and he’s getting more opportunities with the Vikings than he did more most of his tenure with the Packers.
The Lions don’t stand out as a particularly good matchup, but their numbers could decline after losing Aidan Hutchinson. This game also has a 50.5-point total, and the Vikings are listed as small home favorites.
Breece Hall ($7,600 FanDuel)
Hall is only eligible on the FanDuel main slate, which includes the Sunday Night Football contest between the Jets and Steelers. However, Hall is a fantastic option on that site.
He was considered one of the top running backs in fantasy heading into the year, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of six games. The two games where he’s failed to return value have been serious clunkers, but there’s still been more good than bad. Specifically, his pass-catching prowess out of the backfield has helped make up for some mediocre numbers as a runner.
Hall’s price tag is down to just $7,600 on FanDuel, which represents a decrease of nearly -$1,000 from his peak. He’s cheaper than guys like David Montgomery, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Kareem Hunt, yet his ceiling projection clears those guys by a pretty wide margin. He’s a strong buy-low target.
Contrarian NFL DFS Tournament Options With Upside
De’Von Achane ($6,700 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel)
Heading into this season, Achane could’ve been considered one of the best pure talents at the position. He averaged more than seven yards per carry as a rookie, and he’s one of the fastest players in the league. Add in his pass-catching ability, and the only real question was how many opportunities he’d get alongside Raheem Mostert.
Unfortunately, an injury to Tua Tagovailoa has completely nuked his value. He’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in three straight games, and he’s also going through the concussion protocol. I wouldn’t expect him to be very popular in Week 7.
However, Achane is still a walking big play, capable of turning any touch into a long touchdown. With the Dolphins coming off a bye, expect Mike McDaniel to draw up some ways to get the ball to his top playmakers, regardless of who is at quarterback.
Josh Jacobs ($6,400 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel)
Jacobs was signed to replace Jones at running back in Green Bay, but he’s been pretty disappointing so far. That said, his production hasn’t been terrible – he’s averaged 4.3 yards per carry and 77.3 yards per game – he just hasn’t scored many touchdowns. He’s found the paint just one time through the first six weeks, so he’s been pretty unlucky from that perspective. Pro Football Focus credits him with 3.2 expected rushing touchdowns, so he could be due for some positive regression.
The Packers are implied for 25.25 points vs. the Texans, which is the fifth-highest mark on the main slate.
Austin Ekeler ($5,900 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel)
Ekeler stands out as undervalued on this slate using SimLabs. He’s showing up in the optimal lineup on DraftKings nearly 5% of the time, but he’s projected for almost no ownership.
Part of that is due to his role. He’s a pass-catching specialist, so he’s not going to see a ton of carries each week. That seemingly caps his upside.
However, Ekeler has posted a positive Plus/Minus in four straight games, scoring double-digit DraftKings points in each. He’s done that despite only scoring one touchdown, so he has a bit more upside than you might think. If he can add a score to his typical four or five catches, he has a chance to provide nice value at his reasonable price tag.
Joe Mixon ($7,200 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel)
Mixon returned from a multi-week injury last week, and he picked up basically right where he left off. He ripped off more than 100 yards and a touchdown despite handling just 13 carries.
The reduced workload is obviously a bit concerning, but he could be more involved another week removed from his injury. He handled 79% of the team’s carries in Week 1, so there’s no reason to expect him to be part of a committee moving forward.
