The quarterback position is one of the most flexible in NFL DFS. You can go in a variety of different ways. Do you pay up for one of the top studs or try to save some money with a value option? Do you eat the chalk or look for a low-owned option with upside? There’s no 100% one-size-fits-all answer, so each slate and contest type is going to require thought and consideration.
In this piece, I highlight quarterbacks who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
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Geno Smith ($5,800 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel)
Smith and the Seahawks have had to navigate a brutal schedule of late. They had to play three games in an 11-day stretch, and two of them were against the Lions and 49ers. Those are two of the best teams in the NFC, and the Seahawks went winless over that time frame.
The Seahawks’ schedule final gets a smidge friendlier in Week 7. They’ll have a bit of additional time to prepare vs. the Falcons after playing on Thursday Night Football in Week 6. The Falcons defense has also been somewhat exploitable this season, ranking merely 21st in pass defense EPA.
Despite the tough recent schedule, Smith continues to put up strong fantasy results. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of six outings, and he’s had at least 17.48 DraftKings points in all but one. Overall, Smith is the No. 10 quarterback in terms of fantasy points per game.
Smith checks in as one of the cheaper quarterbacks on this slate on DraftKings, and he’s tied for the third-highest Bargain Rating at the position. He leads all quarterbacks in projected Plus/Minus, so he’s a logical choice for cash games.
Sam Darnold ($6,200 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel)
Darnold is a bit more expensive than Smith on DraftKings, but he’s actually -$100 cheaper on FanDuel. That makes him arguably the superior option there.
The Vikings are in an excellent spot this week vs. the Lions. They’re coming off a bye week, while the Lions just lost their best player in pass-rusher Aidan Hutchinson. Without him, they could be poised for some regression against the pass. They were up to No. 8 in pass defense EPA this season, but it’s hard to imagine they sustain that without the league’s top sack-getter.
The Vikings are listed as slight favorites in this game, which has one of the higher totals of the week at 50.5 points. As a result, the Vikings’ 26.25-point implied team total ranks third on the slate.
Like Smith, Darnold has also been an underappreciated source of fantasy value to start the season. He posted a positive Plus/Minus in his first four games before stumbling vs. the Jets in London. Overseas games are always difficult to prepare for, and the Jets have one of the best pass defenses in the league. It’s pretty easy to give him a pass for that outing. He scored at least 20.92 FanDuel points in his three prior outings, and it’s reasonable to expect him to get back to that level this week.
Now available: our NFL DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
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Jayden Daniels ($7,600 DraftKings, $9,100 FanDuel)
No team provides more offensive upside this week than the Commanders. They’re taking on the Panthers, who are currently 30th in defensive EPA. The Commanders have the No. 1 offense in the league per EPA, so this is a massive mismatch. That’s reflected in the betting lines, which give the Commanders an implied team total of 29.75.
It goes without saying that QBs for teams that are implied for a lot of points tend to do well. Historically, QBs with a comparable salary have averaged 24.41 DraftKings points with an implied team total of at least 28.0 (per the Trends tool).
Regardless of the matchup, Daniels is someone who deserves weekly consideration at the position. He’s been a hyper-efficient passer as a rookie, and he remains one of the top rushing threats at quarterback. He’s averaged 53.7 rushing yards per game so far this season, and he’s also added four rushing touchdowns. When combined with his passing production – 234 yards per game and six scores – it results in the fourth-most fantasy points per game at the position.
Daniels currently leads the slate in ceiling projection, and he has the third-highest optimal rate in SimLabs. He’s going to be popular, but his upside in this spot is undeniable.
Daniel Jones ($5,400 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel)
Not much was expected of Jones coming into this season, but he’s provided more fantasy value than anticipated. He’s gone for at least 18.32 DraftKings points in three of his past five outings despite routinely being priced as one of the cheapest QBs in football.
Jones has always had more upside than expected because of his rushing ability. He’s averaging a career-best 7.5 attempts per game this season, though he’s averaged just 3.6 yards per carry. If he can revert to his career norm of 5.5 yards per attempt – and add in a touchdown or two – his legs would be a legitimate weapon.
Jones should also have his top pass-catcher back in the lineup this week. Malik Nabers has missed the past two games with a concussion, but he returned to practice and is expected to suit up vs. the Eagles.
With Nabers in tow, Jones could do some damage vs. an Eagles squad that ranks just 25th in pass defense EPA. He’s popping up in the optimal DraftKings lineup at the second-highest rate for all quarterbacks in SimLabs.
Anthony Richardson ($6,000 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel)
Richardson has had an up-and-down start to his career. He was limited to just four games as a rookie due to injuries, and he’s already had to miss two games this season.
Even when Richardson has been on the field, his production has been hit-or-miss. He’s displayed immense upside – combining elite athleticism with some downfield passing ability – but he also has a cavernous floor. He had more than 27 DraftKings points in Week 1 vs. the Texans, but he’s been held below 13 DraftKings points in his other three outings. That makes him a lot easier to trust in GPPs, which emphasize ceiling over consistency.
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Brock Purdy ($6,400 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel)
The 49ers and Chiefs will square off in a rematch from Super Bowl 58 and a potential preview for Super Bowl 59. While the Chiefs’ offense has been hit hard by injuries, the 49ers are just starting to get rolling. They’ve scored at least 30 points in two of their past three outings, and Purdy once again ranks near the top of the league from an efficiency standpoint: He’s sixth among qualified passers in EPA + CPOE composite.
Purdy has thrown at least three touchdown passes in two of his past four outings, and I expect the 49ers to throw everything possible at the Chiefs in this spot. They simply can’t afford to lose to this team again.
For fantasy purposes, Purdy looks undervalued this week. His projected ownership is checking in below his optimal rate across the industry.
Joe Burrow ($6,800 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel)
Burrow and the Bengals had a quiet showing vs. the Giants in Week 6, but their offense was absolutely rolling prior to that. They scored at least 33 points in three straight games, although they were only able to win one of them.
Burrow has also been dealing from a fantasy perspective. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of his past five games, including a ceiling performance of 37.78 FanDuel points vs. the Ravens. If Burrow can do that vs. Baltimore, there’s no reason he can’t do it vs. the Browns. Cleveland had a historically good defense last year, but they’ve already surrendered 33+ points twice this season.
Jared Goff ($6,500 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel)
The Lions have been a really run-heavy team so far this season, but that’s easy to accomplish when you’re winning games. The Lions have basically rolled through the early part of their schedule, but things are going to get a lot tougher vs. the Vikings. They’re underdogs for the first time all season, and Minnesota has the top defense in football in terms of EPA.
If the Lions can’t get the ground game going or fall into a deficit, Goff is going to have to throw the ball a bit more than usual. He’s displayed plenty of upside in those situations. Even if he doesn’t have to throw as much, that doesn’t necessarily kill his fantasy value. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in back-to-back games, including 300+ passing yards and three touchdowns in just 25 attempts in his last outing.
