For the third straight week, the DraftKings main slate includes 10 games on Sunday afternoon. Just two teams are on bye weeks, but with a Monday Night Football doubleheader, we’re left with 20 teams in the player pool once again. Seven of the Week 7 games kick off at 1:00 p.m. ET, with three games kicking off after 4:00 p.m. ET in the later wave.
That later wave includes the team with the highest Implied Point Total of the week–the Washington Commanders. It also includes a tasty Super Bowl rematch between the 49ers and the Chiefs. Those are just a few options to check out for this weekend. With 20 teams to break down, it’s never too early to start strategizing for your NFL DFS lineups for Week 7. Some potential values are already popping in our early projections, and you definitely want to have these values on your radar for this week.
Throughout the season, every Wednesday, I’ll be taking a look at the players who are standing out as top values for the coming week by using the early projections in our NFL Player Models. Of course, these models update frequently.
Things will likely change between now and Sunday, but it’s still good to have a plan of attack.
If there’s news between now and lock — and there will be — the models will update to reflect that.
As always, they’re powered by Sean Koerner — one of the most accurate fantasy rankers in the industry.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Values
Geno Smith ($5,800) Seattle Seahawks (+3) at Atlanta Falcons (51.5 total)
Smith has the highest Projected Plus/Minus and Pts/Sal of any quarterback in both the projections from Chris Raybon and the projections from Sean Koerner. THE BLITZ projections have him second in those categories behind the Dolphins’ Tyler Huntley. In an evenly-blended three-way aggregate of the projections, Smith comes out on top in both categories.
Last week, Smith threw for 312 yards in his Thursday night loss to the 49ers. He only threw one touchdown but still finished with 17.48 DraftKings points while going 30-for-52, completing a season-low 57.7% of his passes.
His overall production this season is a little low due to only throwing one touchdown in each game, but he has still managed to average 19.8 DraftKings points per game by attempting at least 40 passes in four of Seattle’s last five games and throwing for over 280 yards in each of those contests. If passing touchdowns start following the rest of the volume, he could be an elite play this week.
The Falcons rank in the middle of the pack against the pass but have given up five passing scores to opposing QBs in the last two weeks against the Bucs and Panthers.
The Seahawks have been sneakily pass-heavy this season, and this could turn into a high-scoring track meet indoors in Atlanta, setting Geno up for a big value week.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Values
JuJu Smith-Schuster ($4,000) Kansas City Chiefs (+1.5) at San Francisco (47 total)
Smith-Schuster looked “cooked” with the Patriots, according to my 13-year-old son, and while I wouldn’t have said it quite that way, I agreed with the sentiment. The Pats released the veteran before the season, and he ended up signing with the Chiefs. Reunited–and it feels so good!
It didn’t feel good right away, though, since Smith-Schuster was barely involved at all through the first four weeks of the season. He posted zero fantasy points three times and only had two catches for 17 yards. However, all that changed in Week 5, when he turned back the clock while stepping into an increased role following the injury to Rashee Rice (knee). Smith-Schuster finished with seven catches on eight targets for 130 yards and 23 DraftKings points.
While we may not be able to count on big games like he has against the Saints, JuJu is way too cheap in relation to his upside this week. He has a 98% Bargain Rating on DraftKings, where he’s still only $4,000 and has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position in the blended projections, including the highest at the position in Raybon’s projections.
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NFL DFS Running Back Values
Chuba Hubbard ($6,500) Carolina Panthers (+7.5) at Washington Commanders (51.5 total)
This game has one of the highest over/unders on the slate this week, and the Commanders defense has been very beatable lately, allowing five running back touchdowns in the last five weeks. Hubbard will look to keep that trend going with another big week as he continues to serve as the focal point of the Panthers’ ground game.
Hubbard has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position in the three-way aggregate projection and has exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his last five games after a Week 1 clunker. He has run for at least 90 yards in each of those five games and scored two touchdowns. Hubbard also has been very involved as a receiver out of the backfield with at least four catches in each contest.
He had 15.3 DraftKings points last week against the Falcons, even though he didn’t score a touchdown, and he has over 15 DraftKings points in four straight contests. He had over 25 DraftKings points in the two games he found the end zone, giving him both a very high floor and a high ceiling for as long as he remains the feature back in Carolina.
He’s not as cheap as he was before this run of success, but he’s still a solid value at just over $6,000.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Values
David Njoku ($4,100) Cleveland Browns (+6.5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (42 total)
Our projections point to Njoku as an elite value at tight end this week after the Browns traded away Amari Cooper ($5,800) to the Bills. Njoku has the highest Projected Plus/Minus in the three-way aggregate by a wide margin and should get plenty of attention from Deshaun Watson ($4,900) now that he’s the most established pass-catcher available.
Njoku missed Week 2, Week 3, and Week 4 with a knee/ankle injury but returned in Week 5. He only had one catch in his comeback game, but he looked back to full speed last week against the Eagles, hauling in 5-of-7 targets for 31 yards. He led the team in both targets and catches in that game–his first full game of the year.
Last season, Njoku proved he can be a downfield threat as well as a good release valve, so Watson will likely pepper him with targets all game long against the Bengals. Cincinnati has allowed the sixth-most DraftKings points to tight ends this year, including three touchdowns to the position against the Ravens two weeks ago and an average of 46.2 tight end receiving yards per game. With all the volume Njoku is projected to have this week, he’s an awesome play at just over $4,000.
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