The PGA TOUR travels to TPC Summerlin (par 71, 7,255 yards, bentgrass greens) in Las Vegas this week for the Shriner Children’s Open. TPC Summerlin has been the home of the Shriner’s Open since 1992 and Tom Kim (-20) won this event last season, marking his second consecutive victory at TPC Summerlin. For this week, the Shriners Childeren’s Open is hosting a field of 132 players, and there will be a top-65 and ties cut after the first 36 holes.
The PGA DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.
I’ll be highlighting the best cash game/single-entry plays on the DraftKings main slate, but these players are often great options in any contest.
My analysis will frequently reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots, on average, it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation.
Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.
There are a variety of Strokes Gained-related metrics, but the six main categories you need to know include:
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (SG: Off-the-Tee)
- Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: Approach)
- Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green (SG: Around-the-Green)
- Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: Putting)
- Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (SG: Ball-Striking), which is SG: Off-the-Tee + SG: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (SG: Tee-to-Green), which is SG: Ball-Striking + SG: Around-the-Green
Don’t forget to check out two key metrics in our models — Perfect% and SimLeverage. You can find an explainer on those metrics here.
The cliff notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is great for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games.
And don’t forget to utilize our various PGA DFS tools like our Lineup Optimizer, Lineup Builder, PGA Correlation Dashboard, and our Trends tool.
The following players listed are based on DraftKings scoring and pricing.
PGA DFS Cash Game Thoughts
Note: FantasyLabs has partnered with Betsperts Golf and the Rabbit Hole! Sign up for the biggest database of golf stats available on the internet and get 25% off a yearly sub with our link!
Unless otherwise noted, all Strokes Gained metrics referenced in this article come via the Rabbit Hole.
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DraftKings $10,000+ Range
Tom Kim ($10,800) – As the back-to-back champion of this tournament, Kim should have been priced higher than this. The 22-year-old is the heavy favorite to win this week, with field-best odds of +1200 on the DraftKings Sportsbook, and Kim is worth paying up for at this sub $11,000 salary – Davis Thompson carries the second-best odds at +2500. Kim hasn’t played since August, but prior to the layoff, he had recorded a top-15 finish in three of his previous eight starts. Kim ranks third in Strokes Gained per round when we compare this field’s last 50 rounds at desert courses – via the Rabbit Hole – and he is a lock for a top-five finish in this weak field.
Now available: our PGA DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
DraftKings $9,000 Range
Tom Hoge ($9,800) – Hoge is fresh off a T7 at the Procore Championship, in which he finished the event top-12 in both SG: Approach and SG: Putting. Being in pristine form with both your irons and putter is how you win at TPC Summerlin, and if Hoge can carry over this momentum to TPC Summerlin, he should contend at this venue he knows very well. Each of the past three victors at TPC Summerlin have finished the tournament top three in both SG: Approach and SG: Putting, and Hoge has posted a top-25 finish in four of his last six appearances at the par 71, including a T4 finish two years ago.
Beau Hossler ($9,500) – Hossler finished T7th at TPC Summerlin last year and brings similar upside this week. The veteran has never missed a cut at the par 71, and Hossler arrives in Las Vegas this week with three top-12 finishes in his last four starts, including a runner-up at the Sanderson Farms Championship last month. Including a career-low 10-under 60 at the Wyndham Championship, Hossler has shot under par in 12 of his last 14 rounds, and he ranks 11th in Total Strokes Gained when we compare this field’s last 24 rounds. Additionally, Hossler ranks second in Strokes Gained per round when we compare this field’s last 50 rounds at fall events, via the Rabbit Hole. At +2800 on the DraftKings Sportsbook, Hossler boasts the fourth-best odds to win the Shriners Open this weekend, but he is only the seventh highest-priced golfer on DraftKings for DFS.
DraftKings $8,000 Range
Cam Davis ($8,800) – Davis closed out the summer in terrific form, and he should start his fall with a high finish this week. The bomber finished T5 at the BMW Championship in August in his last start and he has finished T26th or better in three of his past six starts, one of which was his win at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Davis has never missed a cut at TPC Summerlin in five tries – including a T7 last year – and is a very safe option this week.
Jonathan Vegas ($8,000) – Vegas has made 5-of-7 cuts at TPC Summerlin – including a T5 in 2011 – and he returns to Sin City as the maker of eight straight cuts. During this cut streak, Vegas has carded five top-30 finishes, including a win at the 3M Open. The 40-year-old has been striking the ball at a very high level – he ranks seventh in SG: Tee-to-Green when we compare this field’s last 24 rounds – and Vegas is at his best on bentgrass greens. TPC Summerlin is home to this type of putting surface, and when we analyze this field’s last 50 rounds at courses with this type of green, Vegas ranks fifth in strokes gained per round, via the Rabbit Hole.
DraftKings $7,000 Range
J.J. Spaun ($7,900) – Spaun is easily one of the best values available this week at this affordable salary, which is a huge $600 drop since his T25 at the Black Desert Championship last week. Excluding his first first-round withdrawal from the Sanderson Farms Championship, Spaun has now made eight cuts in a row, with all but one of these finishes being top-30 results, most notably with a T3 at the Wyndham Championship. Ranking first in SG: Approach when we compare this field’s last 24 rounds, Spaun’s ball striking has been incredible and he may be in store for a career-best finish at TPC Summerlin. The veteran has made 5-of-7 cuts at the par 71, including three top-15 finishes.
Adam Svensson ($7,500) – Svensson is a no-brainer for cash games at this discounted price. Despite coming off a T25 finish at the Black Desert Championship last week, which marks his third top-25 finish in his last four starts, Svensson’s salary has dropped $700 last week. Svensson gained a season-high 6.0 strokes on approach at the Black Desert Resort Course last week, and he has only failed to make the cut three times in his last 18 starts. Svensson finished T18th at TPC Summerlin last year and is poised for another great performance at the desert course this weekend.
Patton Kizzire ($7,300) – Kizzire is a tough value play to ignore this week. The veteran is in outstanding form, finishing 1st, T11th, and T43rd in his last three starts while gaining strokes with both his irons and putter at all three of these tournaments. Kizzire impressively won the Procore Championship by strokes to begin this run and he hasn’t shot over par in 14 consecutive rounds. Now, Kizzire heads to TPC Summerlin, where he boasts a 6-for-8 record in terms of made cuts, with two top-five finishes on his resume at the course. Plain and simple, Kizzire should have been more expensive than this and is arguably the best bargain on the board.
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DraftKings $6,000 and Below Range
Chad Ramey ($6,800) – If excluding his first-round withdrawal from the Sanderson Farms Championship, Ramey has made seven consecutive cuts, including three top-25 finishes, one of which was a T21 at the Black Desert Championship last week. Ramey will now look to extend this streak at TPC Summerlin, where he has never missed a cut in three attempts. The veteran has posted two top-30 finishes at the course, and he ranks eighth in 400-450 par four efficiency over his last 50 rounds, which bodes well for his return to TPC Summerlin. Seven of the 11 par fours at this par 71 fall between 400-450 yards and each of the past three winners at TPC Summerlin have finished the event top-three in efficiency on these specific holes.
Greyson Sigg ($6,700) – Including a T28 last year, Sigg has never missed a cut at TPC Summerlin in three starts, and the veteran has flashed great upside as of late. In his last three starts, Sigg has finished T4th, MC and T11th, with that latter finish coming at the Black Desert Championship this past week. This three-start stretch alone has moved Sigg up 51 spots in the world golf rankings, and he is a safe bet to make the cut this week in this great form.
