Most of the football world was shocked by the sudden firing of Robert Saleh this weekend. The former New York Jets head coach fell out of favor with the Jets’ brass, resulting in his untimely termination. Now, the Aaron Rodgers-led Jets will need to figure things out in a hurry as they face a pivotal test versus the Buffalo Bills on Monday Night Football. Of course, the Bills aren’t without their issues. Buffalo has lost two in a row, with their offense unable to generate any meaningful gains in either of those contests. Desperation should bring out the best in both clubs in what we’re predicting to be a wildly entertaining AFC East showdown.
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Sleeper Fantasy Picks for Bills vs. Jets
Breece Hall More 54.5 Rushing Yards
One of the biggest factors impacting New York’s unsuccessful start to the season was the deployment of Breece Hall. Through five games, the Jets running back has mustered a paltry 197 yards on the ground, failing to surpass 62 yards in any outing. Nevertheless, he’s primed for a breakout against a weak Bills rush defense that has been exposed early in 2024.
Hall’s ineffectiveness is tied to poor play-calling early this season. Never an offensive guru, Saleh was unable to draw up plays to maximize Hall’s ceiling. Some of the blame also falls on Nathaniel Hackett, which was a contributing factor in him being stripped of play-calling duties in the coaching shuffle. A restructured offense should help Hall break out of his early-season slump, but there’s more supporting improved efficiency from him in the short term.
Specifically, we have Hall earmarked for progression against the Bills. So far this season, the former second-round pick is averaging just 3.0 yards per carry. That’s a steep departure from his career average of 4.5, and even further off the 5.8, he managed in his rookie season. Either way, Hall is better than he’s shown, and he remains the bellcow out of the backfield.
Buffalo has been unable to contain opposing running backs all season. The AFC East leaders are giving up an average of 144.0 rushing yards per game, with their last three opponents driving that up to 152.3. Included in that sample is a 199-yard effort from Derrick Henry and a solid showing from Travie Etienne, who averaged 6.2 yards per carry.
According to our projections, Hall will be the next running back to burn the Bills. He’ll benefit from a change of pace on offense, but he was already a progression candidate on the verge of a breakout. Watch him surpass 54.5 rushing yards on Monday Night Football, a benchmark he could sail past in the first half.
Mike Williams Less 29.5 Receiving Yards
Naturally, more of an emphasis on the rushing attack will yield less production from the passing game. One player who stands to lose the most is Mike Williams. The Jets’ offseason acquisition has been an afterthought for Aaron Rodgers, and with fewer passes to go around, Williams should see a decline in his already low ceiling.
Williams hasn’t been a priority in Rodgers’ pass distribution. Through five games, the former first-round pick has absorbed 14 targets, pulling down 10 catches for 145 yards. That per-game average of 29.0 puts him right on the mark for his total on Monday Night Football, but there are a few other factors at play.
First, and deservingly so, Rodgers has a clear preference for Garrett Wilson and Allen Lazard in the passing attack. But even Breece Hall and Tyler Conklin have more targets than Williams. Second, Williams isn’t being used to stretch the field. His season-long is a 22-yard reception, showing that he’s being deployed on short-to-intermediate routes. Finally, and most importantly, the Bills secondary is one of the best in the game. They allow a paltry 5.7 yards per pass attempt, resulting in just 198.4 yards per game.
Every factor points toward Williams falling short of 29.5 receiving yards at MetLife Stadium. He’s a tertiary option in Rodgers’ progressions, and he’s being used primarily on shorter routes to create more mismatches for Wilson and Lazard downfield. Buffalo should have no problem containing Williams on Monday night.
Josh Allen More 18.5 Completions + More 34.5 Rushing Yards
Surely, the Buffalo Bills knew there would be consequences for gutting their receivers corps last offseason. Buffalo parted ways with two of their top pass-catching options, prioritizing young up-and-comers for cap relief purposes. They’ve paid the price for that early in 2024, but Allen’s completion total has dropped far enough that there’s now an edge in backing the over. Further, we’ve seen a rejuvenated Allen in the ground game, which should result in more than 34.5 rushing yards against the Jets.
Allen and the Bills receivers aren’t as bad as they showed in Week 5. The two-time Pro Bowler completed a laughable nine of 30 pass attempts against the Houston Texans, marking the fourth time he’s fallen below 19 completions this season. In doing so, Allen’s completion percentage has fallen three points below average and nine points below his previous career high, implying greener pastures await the Bills quarterback. The Jets’ pass defense is a tough challenge, but we’re betting Allen rebounds with a much-improved effort on primetime.
Running the ball has become a hallmark of Allen’s success as a quarterback. So far this season, he’s averaging 6.2 yards per carry, putting him within striking distance of his previous career best of 6.3. Unlike their pass defense, the Jets are unequipped to handle the rush. Opponents are averaging 119.2 rushing yards per game against New York, putting the Jets right in the middle of the NFL pack. This is a vulnerability that we expect Allen to exploit at any point in the game.
Allen has run for over 39 yards in three of his five outings this season. While his passing stats haven’t met his usual standard, he’s building rapport with Keon Coleman and Curtis Samuel. Additionally, we’re anticipating more production from his tight ends, Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox. Combined with his elite rushing ability, Allen is primed to eclipse his completions and rushing yard totals against the Jets.
James Cook More 15.5 Receiving Yards
James Cook has been an integral part of the Bills’ offensive game planning this season. The lead running back has maintained his reputation as an elite rusher but has also become a more reliable safety valve in Buffalo’s passing game. Health was an issue leading up to Monday Night Football, but we don’t expect it to limit Cook against the Jets.
While there may be a playable advantage in backing Cook to surpass his rushing total, the more pronounced edge comes in backing him to surpass 15.5 receiving yards. Cook has been a menace in the open field, breaking off catch-and-runs of nine or more yards in every game this season. Moreover, the 25-year-old has a reception greater than 15.5 yards in four of his five outings.
We’ve seen running backs burn the Jets defense in the past. Last week, Aaron Jones had a 24-yard reception, becoming the third running back this season to surpass 22 yards on one catch against them. That sets a low and achievable bar that Cook can easily reach, backing him to get more than 15.5 throughout the course of the game.
