It’s desperation time for the Cincinnati Bengals. The AFC North basement dwellers blew another lead in epic fashion last week, dropping an overtime decision to the Baltimore Ravens. That drops the Bengals to 1-4 on the season, putting their playoff hopes on life support just five weeks into the season. There’s no time to sit back and sulk though, as they’re back in action against the New York Giants on Sunday Night Football. The Giants have already overachieved relative to preseason expectations, mounting two upset victories over the last three weeks. They’ll have the home faithful at their back as they try to climb back to .500 and stay in the NFC East hunt.
This article will discuss two or more of my favorite NFL pick’ems from Sleeper Fantasy, where you can use Sleeper promo code LABS1 for a $100 deposit match.
Sleeper Fantasy Picks for 49ers vs. Seahawks
Daniel Jones More 20.5 Passing Completions
The often-maligned Daniel Jones deserves some credit for his recent accomplishments. All six of his touchdown passes have come across the past three weeks. But more importantly, that comes in contrast to just one interception. Combined with an improved completion percentage, Jones is proving naysayers wrong and turning out to be the difference-maker the Giants drafted him to be. That fine form carries him into Sunday’s interconference battle, and his sights are set on surpassing 20.5 completions at home.
Without Saquon Barkley, the Giants have adopted a more pass-heavy approach on offense. So far this season, New York is turning to the air 59% of the time, an increase from last year’s benchmark of 57%. Practically, that’s translated to a lot more pass attempts for Jones. The Giants’ signal caller is averaging 35.6 throws per game, going north of 34 in all but one game this season. More importantly, he’s made the most of those additional pass attempts over his recent sample. Jones is up to a 70.4% completion rate over his last three outings, eclipsing 23 each time out.
Jones’ lofty benchmarks are projected to continue into Week 6. The Bengals’ pass defense has been almost non-existent. Cincinnati is giving up a 67.7% completion percentage to opposing quarterbacks, translating to an average of 21 completions per game. Lamar Jackson’s performance last week underscores those concerns, but the last three quarterbacks they’ve faced have all thrown at least 21 completions.
Jones’ anticipated success is validated by the Giants’ increased reliance on the passing game and the Bengals’ inability to contain opposing quarterbacks. On that basis, we project a playable advantage in backing Jones to record more than 20.5 completions.
Tee Higgins More 4.5 Receptions
The outcomes may not be going the Bengals’ way this season, but that doesn’t diminish their offensive production. Joe Burrow is moving the offense with ease, tallying 33 points or more in three straight weeks. Not coincidentally, Cincinnati’s improved efficiency ties into Tee Higgins‘ return to the lineup, making his receptions total a must-play Sleeper pick on SNF.
As usual, Ja’Marr Chase stole the show with his electric 70-yard touchdown against the Ravens, but Higgins asserted himself as the premier option in Burrow’s progressions. Higgins led the game with 14 targets, representing a meaty 35.9% target share. This wasn’t a one-off performance for the former second-round pick either. Higgins commanded 10 targets in Week 5, also representing the high mark for the Bengals. In total, that’s 24 targets and a 34.3% target over the last two weeks.
An increased workload is a big factor in Higgins surpassing 4.5 receptions against the Giants, but there’s more working in his favor. First, he’s a natural progression candidate. The Bengals’ wide receiver is operating below his career catch rate. Through three games, he’s sitting 3.5% below his average of 63.5%. Second, the Giants have struggled to contain opposing pass catchers. Four different receivers had at least four receptions in last week’s tilt versus the Seattle Seahawks. Likewise, the Cleveland Browns had three players reach that benchmark and the Dallas Cowboys had two players max out at seven receptions across the two preceding weeks.
It’s been all systems go for Higgins since returning to the lineup. He’s been Burrow’s preferred target in each of the last two games, and the Giants don’t possess the defensive faculties to slow down his production. We wouldn’t be surprised if this was a season-best performance from Higgins, but even if it’s not, he should still eclipse 4.5 receptions.
