NFL DFS Picks: Week 6 Main Slate DraftKings Breakdown

It’s another 10-game main slate in Week 6, with four of those games having totals of at least 47 and the other six checking in at 43 or less.

That means the field will likely concentrate heavily on those four games — creating huge opportunities if we can find scores from other players. As always, it’s a 1:00 p.m. ET lock for the main slate.

In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the DFS slate.

Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.

Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.

You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:

NFL DFS Quarterback Picks

Stud: Lamar Jackson ($7,800) Baltimore Ravens (-6.5) vs. Washington Commanders (51.5 Total)

The Ravens have the highest team total on the slate, in the game with the second-highest game total — and their offense runs through their quarterback. Lamar Jackson is the no-brainer leader in median and ceiling projection at the position.

Jackson is likely to “succeed” almost regardless of the game script here. He’s topped 24 DraftKings points in four of five games this season, which would keep you on a 150-point pace based on his salary. However, his ability to post a GPP winning score comes down to the Commanders’ ability to keep pace.

In a shootout against the Bengals, Jackson stayed aggressive throughout and dropped 37 DraftKings points. In the Ravens’ two more comfortable wins, he averaged around 25. That means any Jackson-led GPP teams should have a piece or two from the Commanders offense on the other side.

You could certainly consider Jackson in cash games if going cheap elsewhere, as some options to do so are emerging. He ranks fifth in Pts/Sal projection at the position, behind a few more speculative options.

Value: Spencer Rattler ($4,000) New Orleans Saints (+3.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (41.5 Total)

The Saints played on Monday night in Week 5, which means their contest occurred after Week 6 salaries came out. That means the injury that forced Derek Carr out of action wasn’t factored into the pricing on Rattler, who gets the start in Week 6.

Anytime we have a starting quarterback at $4,000, it creates a fairly obvious value spot. He leads the position in Pts/Sal projection by a fairly wide margin. With that said, Rattler is a fifth-round pick, not particularly mobile, and taking on a reasonably tough Bucs defense that’s close to getting back to full strength from an injury standpoint.

That makes Rattler an extremely risky proposition, as his odds of disappointing, even relative to his salary, are fairly high. A game with 200 or so scoreless yards and a turnover works out to just seven points on DraftKings (plus any potential rushing production) and is well within the range of outcomes.

Of course, if he finds the end zone at all, he should produce at least an “acceptable” score at his price tag. With the talented skill players in New Orleans, that’s not hard to see happening either. I mighty plug my nose and play Rattler in cash games, but it’s going to be scary.

Quick Hits

Jayden Daniel ($7,300): Lamar Jackson 2.0 squares off against the classic version as a fairly heavy underdog. If this game turns into a shootout, it’s highly likely Daniels will also post a big score — at $500 cheaper and with lower ownership than Lamar. Both teams have fairly spread-out passing attacks, and we can’t stack both quarterbacks, unfortunately, but it’s worth some exposure to each of them.

Dak Prescott ($6,700): The Lions vs. Cowboys game has the highest total on the slate, with the clearest path to upside through the Cowboys passing attack and the Lions ground game. That makes Prescott an obvious option, with pretty clear stacking and bring-back options. I’ll be heavily invested in that angle since we can be pretty confident in how to build around it — unlike some of the other solid game environments.

Kirk Cousins ($6,200): The Falcons vs. Panthers game has sneaky shootout potential, with both teams ranking in the bottom 10 in DVOA against the pass. Cousins just put up 38 DraftKings points against the Bucs and has an even better matchup now. He probably won’t attempt 58 passes again this week (or ever), but he seems to be recovering from the Achilles injury that limited him earlier in the season. He/this game are firmly in my GPP plans this week.

Will Levis ($4,800): If you can find an extra $800 in salary from Rattler, you can get Will Levis. He hasn’t been great so far this season, but he has a few more starts under his belt, a bit more rushing upside, and an even better matchup with the Colts. His weaponry is less confidence-inspiring than Rattler’s, but I feel a bit better about his overall prospects.

Drake Maye ($5,000): If Maye were cheaper than Levis and Rattler, he’d be a no-brainer this week. While the Patriots offense is bad, Maye profiles for elite rushing production, with a 95th percentile 40-yard dash and good size (6’4″, 223 lbs). I’ll have a bit of him in GPPs since it’s always encouraging when the athletic comp for a quarterback is Josh Allen:

NFL DFS Running Back Picks

Stud: Derrick Henry ($8,000) Baltimore Ravens (-6.5) vs. Washington Commanders (51.5 Total)

Last week, pairing Jordan Mason and Brock Purdy was an easy option to secure exposure to (theoretically) all of the touchdowns from the highest-total team on the slate. This week, Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson accomplish a similar goal.

The drawback this time is that we’re forced to spend about $2,000 more in salary to get there. Still, the two have combined for at least 59 points twice this season, good enough for a 185-point pace at their Week 6 salaries.

That’s probably not winning you a GPP, but it’s an interesting thought for cash games. Henry can get there in GPPs, of course — just probably not with Jackson. Washington is a bit of a pass funnel but not because they’re a tough rushing matchup, they’re just worse at defending passes.

Henry is a solid GPP option if you’re building around the Ravens dominating this game, as that’s when he gets big volume. Given their status as heavy favorites, that’s not a crazy thing to build around. He leads the position in median and ceiling on our models.

Value: Bucky Irving ($5,400) Tampa Bay Bucs (+3.5) at New Orleans Saints (41.5 Total)

News broke somewhat late on Friday that Tampa Bay starter Rachaad White was likely to miss Week 6, creating our first obvious value spot of the slate via his backup. That would be Irving, who’s been the far better back so far this season.

Irving has looked more explosive than White by far this year, picking up 60 more yards on seven fewer carries while scoring the Bucs’ only rushing touchdown from a running back. He should have a very strong role in relief of White, with the Bucs backs collectively averaging six targets per game this year.

On top of that, Tampa’s best wide receiver, Mike Evans, should be locked down by his nemesis, Marshon Lattimore (more on that later). That likely pushes the Bucs to lean more on the ground game — as does the fact New Orleans has a fifth-round rookie at quarterback.

All in all, this is a much better situation than we’ve had in recent weeks, where less explosive players on less functional offenses emerge as values. He’s a cash game lock and an excellent GPP salary saver.

Quick Hits

Tony Pollard ($6,000): Before the value opened up on Irving, Pollard as the top Pts/Sal option on the slate. The Titans are home favorite against a bad Colts defense and would surely love to win this one on the ground rather than trust rookie quarterback Will Levis. He saw 22 carries last week in a Titans win and should have a similar workload this week.

Bijan Robinson ($6,600): Robinson is the player tied for Pollard for the second-best Pts/Sal projection at the position. His salary has finally fallen to meet his mediocre workload, with Robinson ranking 12th among running backs in market share of his team’s touches. He has an elite matchup, though, against a Carolina team that’s allowed the second-most points to the position. Robinson is a solid option in all contest types.

Chuba Hubbard ($6,300): As is his counterpart Chuba Hubbard, who ranks ninth among RBs in touch share, and has the second-best offensive line matchup on the slate. Hubbard’s salary has risen each game this season, but he’s exceeded salary-based expectations in four straight. He’s also mixing into the passing game, with 18 targets over the last four weeks. That’s not bad for $6,300.

Jahmyr Gibbs ($7,000) and David Montgomery ($6,500): “Lions RB” is my favorite play at the position, but it’s difficult picking between the two. They’re both slightly overpriced for their roles, with Montgomery averaging 18 touches per game and Gibbs 16. However, they’re facing the league’s 31st-ranked rushing defense while running behind the best offensive line. My lean is Montgomery (who gets more work in obvious rushing situations and is cheaper), but I’m tempted to have one or the other in 100% of my GPP lineups this week. Sometimes, taking a stand is the way to go.

Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:

NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks

Stud: CeeDee Lamb ($8,600) Dallas Cowboys (+3) vs. Detroit Lions (52 Total)

Lamb is the no-doubt top WR option on the Week 6 slate, thanks to his elite game environment against a bad Lions secondary. As we hit on above with his quarterback Dak Prescott, both teams in this game have an obvious edge in one aspect of the game, creating fairly obvious game stacks.

Lamb hasn’t seen double-digit targets in a game since Week 1 and hasn’t topped 100 yards all season. However, you could say almost the same thing in Week 6 last season (he had one 100 yard game prior to that). That’s when the 3-2 Cowboys decided to give up on establishing the run and feed their top player, with Lamb seeing an insane 44 targets from Weeks 6-8 last year.

The home matchup with the explosive Lions would be the perfect time to go that route this year. The efficiency should be there as well, and this is the cheapest Lamb’s been all season. He leads the position in median and ceiling projection and has a chance to break the slate in Week 6.

Value: Adonai Mitchell ($3,900) Indianapolis Colts (+2.5) at Tenessee Titans (43 Total)

The Colts injury situation has a major impact on the Week 6 DFS slate. Anthony Richardson is back, but Michael Pittman and his 23.4% target share are questionable while starting running back Jonathan Taylor is out. That should mean an increased passing rate (or at least drop back rate) with plenty of targets to spread around to other players.

The Pittman situation is worth monitoring, as initial reports had him missing multiple weeks, but he may suit up on Sunday after all.

Josh Downs ($5,500) ranks second on the Colts in target share, but Mitchell isn’t far behind while coming in $1,600 cheaper. Downs already has his own role distinct from Pittman, though, so the leftover targets could end up elsewhere.

In addition, Downs is questionable with an injury of his own. It seems likelier than not that he plays, but if he were to miss, it would open up even more looks for the cheaper Colts wideouts. Playing two of them in cash makes some sense to save salary, as does mixing and matching them in GPPs and hoping to guess right on the high-usage player.

Quick Hits

Drake London ($6,700) and Darnell Mooney ($5,300): London leads the position in Pts/Sal projection following his Week 6 breakout. I’m heavily targeting this game for GPPs, so it makes sense that both of the Falcons’ top receivers are strong options. Mooney saw a ridiculous 16 targets last week, but has averaged seven per game in the three weeks prior, making him underpriced for his role even in less of an outlier game in terms of pass rate.

Diontae Johnson ($6,100): Johnson was disappointing last week against the Bears, as the whole Panthers offense fell on his face. Still, he’s averaging 11 targets per contest in games with Andy Dalton under center. If last week was a one-game anomaly, he’s majorly underpriced. The Bears rank second in DVOA against the pass, so that seems fairly likely to be the case.

Chris Godwin ($6,900): The Bucs take on the Saints for the first time in 2024, which means Marshawn Lattimore will likely be shadowing Mike Evans ($7,300). That matchup has mostly favored Lattimore, with Evans held under 10.4 DraftKings points in his last nine games against New Orleans. This is good news for Godwin, who has hit double-digits in seven of those games, with scores of 31.0 and 22.4 in the mix. He’s not a lock for a big score, but he’s the preferred option.

Terry McLaurin ($6,400): I mentioned in the Lamar Jackson section needing Commanders bring-backs to pair with Jackson. That means McLaurin, whose 24.7% target share, is by far the best on the team. He hasn’t had a true breakout game yet, but he’s 3x’d his Week 6 salary three weeks in a row. Baltimore has an elite run defense but is fairly mediocre against the pass, making this an ideal spot for a McLaurin breakout.

Stefon Diggs ($7,400) and Tank Dell ($6,200): With the NFL’s leading receiver Nico Collins landing on IR, there are plenty of surplus targets to be had in Houston. That makes their two remaining starting wideouts both interesting options. Neither is a lock by any stretch — since the Patriots might not do enough to push the game — but both should be worth considering.

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NFL DFS Tight End Picks

Stud/Value: Jake Ferguson ($5,000) Dallas Cowboys (+3) vs. Detroit Lions (52 Total)

I’m combining these sections at tight end this week because there’s a clear best play. That would be the Cowboys’ Jake Ferguson, who leads the position in median, ceiling, AND Pts/Sal projections in Week 6.

Much of that is the game environment. As discussed above, Detroit is a tough team to run on but has a suspect secondary. Ferguson is the number two option in the Dallas passing attack, with 30 targets through four healthy games.

I’d be considering Ferguson at wide receiver, considering his salary and market share, which makes him an obvious standout at tight end. He’s nearly a full point clear of the next-best player in median projection despite being $700 cheaper.

Ferguson is a lock for cash games, and GPPs built around this game. While it’s probably worth diversifying some of your lineups, going 100% Ferguson in tournaments wouldn’t be crazy here either.

Quick Hits

Sam LaPorta ($5,500): Last year’s top fantasy tight end hasn’t lived up to expectations this season. He’s caught just 12 passes on 14 targets while failing to find the end zone. Part of that is the crowded Detroit offense, which leans on the run and has plenty of mouths to feed. That’s not going to change this week, but LaPorta is a “bet on talent” option who could easily be the focal point of the game plan this week. He’s a solid Ferguson pivot in a small portion of your GPP lineups.

Zach Ertz ($3,700): At the cheaper end of the salary scale, Zach Ertz is arguably the best option. He trails only McLaurin among Commanders receivers in targets, and we’re expecting a pass-heavy approach against the Ravens. Ertz isn’t going to blow anyone away with his athleticism, but if he happens to trip and fall into the end zone, he could win you a GPP.

Cade Otton ($3,500): Otton is the other cheap tight end catching my eye this week. It’s largely due to the matchup — New Orleans has a +4.0 Opponent Plus/Minus against tight ends. No other main salte team is higher than 0.6 (and only two teams are above 0.) He’s one of the more involved tight ends in the league (11th in target share) and could see a bump if Evans is locked down by Lattimore. As with most players at the position, it ultimately comes down to if he can find his way into the end zone.

GPP Roster Construction

It’s an interesting week for GPPs. I feel fairly confident in a few high-priced players/games, but there aren’t many cheap options I feel comfortable pairing them with.

My favorite among those is the “Dallas passing + Detroit RB” stack, which features CeeDee Lamb (with or without Dak Prescott), Jake Ferguson, and one of the Detroit backs. None of those come cheap, though.

Similarly, building around the two explosive quarterbacks in the Commanders vs. Ravens game — with or without stacking either with a wide receiver — also provides massive upside. Jackson and Daniels are the two most expensive QBs, though, so we have to make concessions elsewhere.

Finally, the Panthers vs. Falcons game is a sneaky potential shootout between two mediocre defenses. We can target that one without spending quite as much. With both passers being fairly immobile, that one calls for more double stacks at receiver.

Regardless, I’ll be building around those core options (or combinations of them) and mixing and matching a fairly wide pool of cheaper options while hoping to catch the right combination in some chunk of my lineups.

For more on my favorite GPP approaches, be sure to check out my SimLabs building blocks article.

Cash Games

With this piece being written on a Friday, there’s plenty still up in the air. Most of it comes down to the injury status of the Colts wideouts — one or both of Pittman and Downs missing the game would give us some much-needed salary relief for cash games.

As it stands, the only plays I’m especially confident in are Lamb, Ferguson, and Tampa Bay ($2,600) against Spencer Rattler and the Saints.

At running back, Irving is a borderline lock, with Pollard and Robinson also projecting well. I’d love to pivot from one of them to Henry is possible, but the salary is somewhat tough to find.

At receiver, there’s a solid group of roughly $6,000 players (Johnson, London, Mooney) and not much behind them if Pittman and Downs are active. Like with Henry at running back, I’d love to find the salary for Lamb — but it’s easier said than done.

Finally, I’m letting the rest of my lineup dictate my quarterback selection. I do not see how we could get all the way up to Daniels, but I’m fine with any of the cheaper options. I certainly prefer Levis (or even Maye) to Rattler, but if I need the $800, I’ll take my chances.