Outside of Seattle, no one was expecting this. The Seattle Seahawks head into Thursday night’s intra-divisional showdown against the San Francisco 49ers as NFC West leaders. Injuries have slowed the Niners down, but they’re healthy enough that it’s no longer an excuse for underperforming. Moreover, San Francisco’s issues run much deeper than that. The reigning NFC Champs have failed to play a full 60 minutes, blowing fourth-quarter leads in two of their last three games. They’ll need to figure things out in a hurry if they don’t want to fall further behind the Seahawks after this one.
This article will discuss 2 or more of my favorite NFL pick’ems from Sleeper Fantasy, where you can use Sleeper promo code LABS1 for a $100 deposit match.
Sleeper Fantasy Picks for 49ers vs. Seahawks
Geno Smith More 24.5 Passing Completions
Five weeks into the season, we’ve got a decent enough sample size to know what the Seahawks’ game plan will be against the Niners. Throwing. The. Football. Seattle airs it out more than any other team in the league, and they’ll be ready to pick on a San Francisco secondary that has shown weaknesses over the past few weeks.
Geno Smith has been the lynchpin on offense and is on pace for his best statistical campaign throughout his career. Already, the Seahawks pivot has a 71.8% completion rating, surpassing 70.0% in all but one of his outings. As a result, head coach Mike McDonald has been happy to air it out at any given moment, calling passing plays 67.4% of the time, most in the NFL. Those metrics correlate with substantive completion totals, as Smith has completed no fewer than 26 passes in any of the last four weeks, for an average of 31.3 per game.
While the 49ers pass defense metrics are in good shape, they continue to crumble late in games. Kyler Murray went 11-for-16 in the second half of last week’s win, leading the Arizona on sustained drives in the latter stages of the game. That’s akin to what we saw from Matthew Stafford two weeks prior, leading the Los Angeles Rams on three scoring drives on their final three possessions. In between those outings, career backup Jacoby Brissett completed 19 passes against the Niners.
We know what to expect from the Seahawks, a heavy dose of the passing attack. The 49ers have been unable to hold up against the pass, particularly as games progress, and they could run out of steam earlier than usual against a pass-laden Seahawks offense. The end result should include Geno Smith eclipsing 24.5 completions.
DK Metcalf More 5.5 Receptions
Smith has a trio of elite wide receivers that he can distribute the ball to, but DK Metcalf remains the first read in Smith’s progressions. We expect him to be featured heavily again on Thursday Night Football, surpassing his completions total against the Niners.
Metcalf ranks first on the Seahawks in target share and receiving yards while falling one short of Jaxson Smith-Njigba for the team lead in receptions. Altogether, he’s commanding 21.6% of the throws from Geno Smith while totaling 421 yards across five outings.
His elite ceiling is reflected in his game analysis too. The two-time Pro Bowler has seen no fewer than six targets in any of the last four contests, totaling 25 receptions on 39 passes thrown his way. More impressively, he’s eclipsed 100 receiving yards in all but one of those outings.
San Francisco has failed to contain opposing pass catchers this season. Michael Wilson and Trey McBride combined to catch 11 of 16 passes in Week 5, with Tutu Atwell, Justin Jefferson, Allen Lazard, and Garrett Wilson all going for at least four.
While Metcalf features a more daunting task of reaching six catches, we’ve seen three of the aforementioned players reach that benchmark. Given his more substantive workload and the Seahawks’ reliance on the aerial assault, we expect Metcalf to reach that benchmark at Lumen Field.
Brock Purdy More 20.5 Passing Completions
Over the years, Kyle Shanahan has had a clear preference for running the ball; however, the injury to Christian McCaffrey has resulted in a pivot early in 2024. The 49ers are throwing the ball more frequently to start the season, and that could be even more pronounced as they keep pace with Seattle’s unrelenting passing attack.
Inconsistency has limited Brock Purdy’s early-season performances, but he’s poised for a bounce-back on Thursday night. Over the last two games, Purdy has completed just 54.8% of his passes, a steep departure from the 75.7% he was completing the two games prior. That drops his completion percentage to 65.6% on the season, below his career average of 68.1%. Both factors point toward renewed success in the short term.
The Seahawks’ lackluster secondary will facilitate some of that progression. Seattle was overwhelmed by the New York Giants last week, giving up 257 passing yards and 23 completions to draft bust Daniel Jones. Ineffective pass coverage has been the Seahawks’ Achilles heel all year, with opponents completing 66.9% of their throws against Seattle.
Thursday’s divisional tilt is an ideal spot to buy low on Purdy and his passing totals. The Niners desperately need to move the ball more efficiently downfield, and Shanahan has deferred to his passing attack to accomplish this. Purdy’s anticipated progression, combined with the Seahawks’ poor defending, should allow him to surpass 20.5 completions.
Jauan Jennings More 2.5 Receptions
We’re taking another correlated approach with our final selection, tying Purdy’s anticipated success with one of San Francisco’s more underappreciated playmakers. With Deebo Samuel and George Kittle on the sidelines, Jauan Jennings took on a more prominent role early in the year. Even though both players have returned to the lineup, Jennings has remained a constant for Purdy and the 49ers’ passing game. That will be true once again on Thursday Night Football.
Jennings ranks second on the team in targets despite playing in only one more game than Samuel and Kittle. More impressively, he’s posted the best catch rate of any wide receiver, pulling down 71.0% of the balls thrown his way. That reliability has yielded a sustained workload for Jennings that makes him a fundamental part of the game-planning moving forward.
We’ve also seen the Seahawks’ secondary frequently lose receivers in coverage. Darius Slayton and Wan’Dale Robinson had eight and six receptions, respectively, last week, representing a 70.0% catch rate. They joined Amon-Ra St. Brown, Josh Reynolds, and Devaugh Vele as wide receivers to eclipse five receptions against the Seahawks.
Inarguably, Jennings is a superior pass catcher than all but one of those receivers. Seattle’s defense will be spread too thin to account for all of the 49ers’ weapons, and we expect Jennings to be the primary beneficiary. We’re forecasting him to easily surpass 2.5 receptions in Week 6.
