Projecting line play — or the line’s impact on fantasy scoring — is one of the more challenging tasks in all of DFS.
While quantitative measures exist, they can be lacking to an extent. On the player level, grading services like Pro Football Focus are notoriously challenged with offensive line play. It’s difficult to know which member of a line blew an assignment, for example.
Things are a bit easier on the team level, as assessing the unit’s overall success is more practical.
However, we’ll still be taking a glance at qualitative sources. Including Action Network’s Brandon Anderson ranking all 32 NFL offensive lines. On the defensive side, PFF’s defensive line rankings will be the main source.
We also have projected sacks in our NFL Player Models.
The Data
Now that we’ve crossed the magical Week 5 line, we’ll be relying heavily on the data below. It’s now matchup-adjusted, which makes it fairly reliable, barring any key injuries.
The table below includes every team’s combined adjusted line yards and sack rate with their Week 6 opponent. Let’s get to it.
Strong Offensive Line Matchups
Detroit Lions OL (#1 In Adjusted Line Yards, #6 in Adjusted Sack Rate) vs. Dallas Cowboys DL
The Lions run game is the biggest takeaway from the data this week. We rarely see double-digit numbers in the adjusted line yards column — last week’s leader was a comparatively paltry 9.6.
However, that’s what happens when the Lions’ league-best run-blocking unit takes on a Dallas team that’s struggled heavily against the run. The Cowboys rank 31st in adjusted line yards allowed, better than only their division rivals, the Eagles.
Of course, the situation isn’t that simple in terms of DFS takeaways. Detroit has a near-even backfield split with Jahmyr Gibbs ($7,000) and David Montgomery ($6,500). Montgomery has 63 carries through four games this season (Detroit had a Week 5 bye), with Gibbs at 54. Gibbs has picked up an extra target per game, though, and has a slightly higher snap share.
Given the matchup and salaries, Montgomery is likely the better option here — but I want exposure to both. I might go as far as to include a rule that every lineup I build has one or the other when using our optimizer this week. Especially since last week’s Milly Maker winner taught us the value of taking a stand.
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Atlanta Falcons OL (#3 In Adjusted Line Yards, #1 in Adjusted Sack Rate) vs. Carolina Panthers DL
We finally got the week we’d hoped for from the Falcons’ passing attack and Kirk Cousins ($6,200) in Week 5 — and by “we,” I mean my fellow Drake London ($6,700) Best Ball drafters. It looks like another great spot for that unit against a Panthers defense that can’t generate much of a pass rush.
That’s especially important for the Falcons, considering that Cousins is a 36-year-old quarterback who tore his Achilles tendon last season, plus he wasn’t exactly fleet of foot, to begin with. His only other good game came against a Bucs team that ranked 20th in adjusted sack rate and was dealing with a plethora of injuries to their front.
That makes going back to the well for the Falcons passing attack a fun way to approach GPPs this week, especially with Kyle Pitts ($4,400) still being fairly cheap despite his break out in Week 5.
Carolina Panthers OL (#2 In Adjusted Line Yards, #2 in Adjusted Sack Rate) vs. Atlanta Falcons DL
The only team generating less of a pass rush than the Panthers is their Week 6 opponent, the Falcons. The Andy Dalton ($5,200) revival took a big step back in Week 5 against the Bears but could get back on track in a softer matchup.
It’s also a good sign for DFS that both teams are set up well here. If just one offense looked promising, the odds of a lopsided score and less offensive aggression would be higher. That’s still a concern here with the Falcons as six-point favorites, but Carolina should be able to push the pace.
With a solid 47-point total that falls a bit short of the slate’s top games, this one could go overlooked. It might be my favorite game to stack for tournaments, though, especially if ownership is relatively low.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
Strong Defensive Line Matchups
Denver Broncos DL vs. Los Angeles Chargers OL (#2 in Combined Adjusted Sack Rate)
Last week, Denver ($3,200) was the obvious top play at D/ST, and they delivered with a solid 16-point performance. This week they have a slightly tougher matchup against the Chargers and a $300 bump in DraftKings salary — but still might be the best play.
The Broncos rank second in the NFL in adjusted sack rate and are facing a Chargers team that ranks 24th in adjusted sacks allowed. This should also be a slow-paced, low-scoring affair between two struggling offenses.
That makes this an excellent cash game floor play and a fringe GPP option (depending on ownership) as well.
Houston Texans DL vs. New England Patriots OL (#1 in Combined Adjusted Sack Rate)
The Patriots rank 30th in adjusted sack rate allowed and are rolling out rookie quarterback Drake Maye ($5,000) for his first career start in Week 6. It’s a tough matchup against the Texans, whose pass rush ranks seventh in the league.
That makes Houston ($3,800) a massive upside option this week. They should be able to force some mistakes out of the rookie, which raises their odds of turnovers and defensive touchdowns.
However, Maye is also interesting. He’s got elite speed at the position, and a lack of pass blocking could lead to more rushing production. I’m considering allocating a small portion of my lineups to a Houston D/Maye stack (AKA the “Jameis Winston special”). A pick-six by Maye followed by him running a touchdown in isn’t terribly unlikely — and nobody will be on that combo.
