As DFS players, we spend most of our time looking forward to the next slate, the next season, etc. Equally important, though, is looking back. Figuring out the thought process that leads to winning lineups is crucial. That’s what makes us better players long term.
Unfortunately, we had an MME-bro winner this week, as one of the 150 lineups entered by user “dustpop” took down the top prize — as well as three of the top 20 spots.
On the plus side, this gives us a chance to look at their overall exposure so we can try to reverse-engineer their lineup from an MME standpoint.
The Lineup
The Stack
While I (somewhat jokingly) complained about a 150-lineup player taking down the Milly Maker, this truly was a master class in how to play MME for first place.
All 150 lineups featured Lamar Jackson at quarterback. That was a bold stance, but it clearly paid off for him. Sticking to your read at a spot (or a few, as we’ll see shortly) is much higher EV than trying to mix and match across the board. If you’re correct in one place, like Jackson being the optimal QB, you can mix and match around it to hit the optimal lineup.
As opposed to trying to “hedge your bets” by diversifying, in which case you might get the position right in some of your lineups — but not get the right pieces around it.
“Stacking” Jackson with Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins also makes a ton of sense. Jackson scores enough with his legs that you don’t need a teammate paired with him. The Bengals passing offense is fairly concentrated between Chase and Higgins, so you can effectively get exposure to most of Joe Burrow’s production through them — while still getting Jackson’s rushing points.
The big takeaways are being “willing to lose” and taking a stand on players you like. Plus, building around rushing quarterbacks in a smart way is a valuable edge since much of the field still tries to force in a pass catcher or two.
Other Correlations
While we don’t typically think of them as correlated, there’s actually a reasonably strong correlation between opposing running backs. That was the only other correlated piece in this lineup, with both Chuba Hubbard and De’Andre Swift at running back.
I mentioned both as top options in my Week 5 Breakdown, and I was especially high on the spot for Swift. So was dustpop apparently, featuring Swift in 100% of his lineups. That also speaks to taking a stand — which we’ll be mentioning in a couple other spots in this lineup.
The Chalk
Both Denver’s defense and Tucker Kraft were pretty obviously good plays last week. They were also both projecting for high ownership. That means if you truly believe in them, you need to be even higher than the field to benefit.
This is exactly what dustpop did, rostering both in 100% of their lineups. Typically, those are positions where mixing and matching is better, but it also makes sense to take a stand. You only need to win this contest once every 20 seasons or so to be profitable max entering, so it’s OK if you’re wrong most of the time — as long as you’re right once.
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The Sleepers
One piece of this lineup I didn’t see coming — but probably should have — was Darius Slayton. With Malik Nabers and Devin Singletary out for the Giants, Wan’Dale Robinson was a pretty popular option. However, Robinson wasn’t going to get all of Nabers’ targets as well as his own, so looking elsewhere on the Giants made a ton of sense.
Especially when you consider Slayton’s profile as a deep ball receiver. He paid off in a big way as one of the “mix and match” pieces around dustpop’s core players.
The last piece was Terry McLaurin, who I mentioned in my SimLabs article as a strong tournament play. The Commanders passing offense continues to improve under rookie Jayden Daniels, with McLaurin the biggest beneficiary.
Given his solid performances the past few weeks he probably won’t be a sleeper pick anymore, but he’s a weekly GPP option.
