After an exciting stop last week in Mississippi, the PGA TOUR continues its fall schedule with a trip to Utah. The PGA TOUR is back in the Beehive State for the first time since 1963 for a brand new tournament called the Black Desert Championship.
This tournament is the third event in the FedExCup Fall in which players can secure their PGA TOUR card and improve their status for the Signature Events at the start of next season. Last week, Kevin Yu defeated Beau Hossler in a playoff at the Sanderson Farms Championship to claim his first PGA TOUR win. Yu withdrew from this event, but Hossler is still in the field along with Keith Mitchell and Lucas Glover, who finished tied for third.
This new event will be held on a new course for the PGA TOUR at Black Desert Resort. The picturesque course is laid out on a lava field in the arid desert of southern Utah, surrounded by the red rock mountains. With stunning contrasts of the lava field surrounding the wide fairways and the mountains in the distance, this resort-style course should provide plenty of outstanding views and amazing landscapes. There are only two water hazards in play on this course which is a par-71 that looks like it will be fairly scorable overall. Two drivable par 4s and risk-reward par 5s should result in low scores. Two other holes that bring distinctive looks are the par-3 third hole, which features a bunker in the middle of the green, and the par-3 17th, which was inspired by the famous “Postage Stamp” at Royal Troon.
The field this week is similar to last week’s in that it is made up mostly of fringe players looking to keep or improve their PGA TOUR status. Chris Kirk is the only player in the field who is ranked in the top 50 in the OWGR, and he’s joined near the top of the salary structure by Erik Van Rooyen, Hossler, Mitchell, Seamus Power, and Kurt Kitayama.
The focus of this post is strong GPP options who have lower ownership projections than their potential performance. Finding high-leverage plays is critical for GPP success, so the picks here go against the grain, looking for under-owned options.
All Strokes Gained metrics referenced are from the Rabbit Hole.
Usually, I rely heavily on the Stroked Gained Model in FantasyLabs, which is very predictive of results. I also tend to lean into players who excel in Strokes Gained: Approach, which is more sustainable week-to-week than a hot putter.
Since these are GPP picks, we can accept more risk in exchange for getting a higher ceiling. High-risk, high-reward options with low ownership create the “boom-or-bust” style lineups that often lead to large-field success. To find guidance for all contest types, check out our full Daily Fantasy Golf coverage each week.
No matter what type of format you prefer, be sure to use the FantasyLabs PGA Models to help you make the best choices. These models use stats and simulations to highlight different players’ strengths and weaknesses. A few critical new stats for GPP play are Perfect% and SimLeverage, which are further explained here.
As you dig into the numbers, you can enjoy the many tools FantasyLabs offers, including the Lineup Optimizer, which effortlessly creates up to 300 lineups. Alternatively, you can use the Lineup Builder if you prefer a more hands-on approach.
Check out my top picks in each price range listed below.
Editors note: SimLeverage and Perfect% numbers may change after this piece is published. Be sure to check the PGA Models for any updates to the sims.
High-Priced PGA DFS Picks
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Unless otherwise noted, all Strokes Gained metrics referenced in this article come via the Rabbit Hole.
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Erik Van Rooyan $9,900
On a new track with no course numbers or history to go on, it makes sense to stick to proven options. EVR was a regular in my picks last fall and early in the season before tailing off as the season went on. I’m back to the 34-year-old South African this week since he brings the highest SimLeverage in the field and an amazingly low ownership projection of under 12%. He has the fifth-highest Perfect% in the field, so getting him outside the top 15 in ownership projection should make him a great source of leverage.
Van Rooyen won the World Wide Technology Championship last fall and will defend his title in a month. He started 2024 hot as well, with six top-25s in his first eight events. He only had two more top 25s all year long, though, and exited the FedExCup Playoffs after the first event.
His lack of recent form may be why his ownership is expected to be low, but he did show some signs of turning things back around with a strong T12 at the Amgen Irish Open in mid-September.
Van Rooyen has typically played well on resort courses and has a good history in the desert from the DP World Tour, including top-five finishes at the 2019 Qatar Masters and the 2022 Dubai Desert Classic. He also has had success at altitude including his 2021 PGA TOUR win at the Barracuda Championship.
While we don’t know exactly how the course will play, we do know EVR excels on courses that share a number of similarities and that he can go very low to win events when he’s at his best. Given his low ownership projection, he is a solid place to start your lineups this week as a pay-up differentiator with the upside to walk away the winner.
Chris Kirk $9,800
Kirk also brings positive SimLeverage and can be the foundation of a solid lineup alongside EVR or instead of the South African. Kirk hasn’t played since the TOUR Championship, but he has enough history and potential to deserve consideration this week.
He has the sixth-highest Perfect% in the field to go, with an ownership projection of just over 15%. He’s a little chalkier than EVR since he has better recent form, but he still has a much lower ownership projection than the most popular plays.
Kirk started 2024 with a win at The Sentry and made 17-of-21 cuts with five top 25s. He trailed off a little in the middle of the season but exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his last seven events. The highlight of that stretch was a top 10 at the BMW Championship held in Colorado. He couldn’t build on that the next week at the TOUR Championship, but he’ll look to carry over that success at this course, which is also at elevation.
He may be a little rusty, but if he can shake that off, he has both a high ceiling and a high floor at Black Desert as one of the most established players in the field.
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Mid-Priced PGA DFS Picks
Michael Thorbjornsen $8,800
After his hot start to the FedExCup Fall, Thorbjornsen has the second-highest SimLeverage in the field behind only Van Rooyen. His ownership projection is under 5% since the public seems to see him as over-priced at almost $9,000.
The 23-year-old youngster made the cut and finished T50 at the Procore Championship, and he could have had a much stronger result if it wasn’t for a final-round fade. He followed that up with an impressive T8 last week at the Sanderson Farms Championship, in which he opened with a sizzling 63 and then finished with solid rounds of 69, 69, and 68.
He already has secured this PGA TOUR card for 2025 by finishing atop the Class of 2024 rankings on PGA TOUR University, where he beat out last week’s winner, Kevin Yu, among others. The Stanford Alum already has earned full status through the 2025 season, becoming the second player to get to the PGA TOUR through the program, following Lucas Aberg.
Thorbjornsen finished T11 at the Hero Dubai Desert Classic on the DP World Tour in January and also finished runner-up at the John Deere Classic. With the ability to go low and have such spike weeks, getting him at such a low ownership is a great high-risk, high-reward option for GPP lineups this week.
Harry Hall $8,400
Hall hasn’t played on the PGA TOUR since the Wyndham Championship in mid-August, but he comes into this week in good form after several strong showings on the DP World Tour. He finished T12 in the Betfred British Masters hosted by Sir Nick Faldo and T18 at the BMW PGA Championship over the last six weeks sandwiched around a missed the cut at the Amgen Irish Open.
Hall has the highest ceiling projection of all golfers under $9,000, as well as the highest floor projection in that range. He has the third-highest Perfect% and the third-highest SimLeverage of all the options in the $8,000s, which makes him a relatively safe play compared to Thorbjornsen while still bringing good upside and a little leverage.
He was already trending in the right direction before his recent European success. Over his last 20 rounds on the PGA TOUR, he ranks first in this field in Total Strokes Gained and Strokes Gained: Around the Green. His win at the ISCO Championship in Kentucky is part of that run, and he had made five straight cuts before coming up short at the Wyndham.
In college, Hall played for UNLV, so the climate and course structure shouldn’t be foreign to him. He’s one of my favorite plays of the week at any salary, and getting him under $8,500 is an exceptional value.
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Value PGA DFS Picks
Matti Schmid $7,900
Schmid is another international player I really like this week who has very low ownership projections. The 26-year-old from Germany has six top 25s on the PGA TOUR this season, including at the Sanderson Farms last week, where he finished T16.
Since the middle of July, Schmid has made the cut in all five PGA TOUR events he played, placed T26 at the Olympics in Paris, and posted a T17 at the Omega European Masters on the DP World Tour. Schmid typically excels on tracks that allow him to utilize his driving distance, as this design should. He was second in the field last week in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and should be able to bomb his way to another big finish this week.
He has climbed to No. 120 in the FedExCup Fall, and with a string of good finishes, he can secure his PGA TOUR card for next season. Schmid has the fourth-highest Perfect% and the fourth-highest SimLeverage of players under $8,000
Ben Kohles $7,200
Kohles has been locked into this spot in my picks for weeks, but he continues to show extremely well in our projections. He has steadily turned in good results and exceeded salary-based expectations after finishing T16 last week in Jackson.
He has exceeded salary-based expectations 10 times in his last 13 tournaments, making the cut 11 times during that stretch. The highlight of his season was a runner-up finish back at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, and he added a top 10 at the Puerto Rico Open as well.
Kohles’ second-place finish in Texas came on another course designed by Tom Weiskopf with easy, low-scoring conditions, so there are definitely possible parallels to this week. He looked strong across multiple aspects of his game last week, gaining 3.9 strokes on approach and also over a stroke on the field off the tee and around the green. He ranks in the top 25 in this field in Total Strokes Gained over the last 30 rounds and in the top 15 in Strokes Gained: Approach over that span.
He continues to be a steady cutmaker and brings great value and leverage. Kohles has the highest SimLeverage of any player in the $7,000s with an ownership projection under 5%.
Sleeper PGA DFS Picks
Kyoung-Hoon Lee $7,000
TPC Craig Ranch is another course designed by Weiskopf with low scoring, and it has been K.H. Lee’s personal playground in the past. The 33-year-old South Korean has two career wins on that track and has made the cut in his two other appearances at that venue. If this week’s design carries enough similarities to that layout, Lee should be in a great spot to contend from only $7,000.
He has the second-highest SimLeverage of any player with a salary of $7,000 or less and the third-highest Perfect% in that price range. His ownership projection is all the way under 3%, and he could bring great leverage as a result.
Although his season has been inconsistent, Lee has posted three top 10s and six top 25s in his 24 events. He finished in the top 25 last week at the Sanderson Farms with four rounds under 70. Over his last eight rounds, he ranks 11th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and will look to continue that success and improve his iron play to contend this week. Lee can be streaky, but I love his upside at only $7,000.
Wesley Bryan $6,600
Bryan started the FedExcup Fall ranked down at No. 156 but has climbed to No. 138 with back-to-back solid weeks at the Procore and Sanderson Farms. He only made five cuts on the season, but three of those have come in his last four events, with his best finish a T13 at the Procore Championship in Napa.
Bryan has looked good putting and off the tee during his recent success, and he can take another big step towards securing a PGA TOUR card for next year if his irons come around and he picks up his approach game this week. Over his last 12 rounds, Bryan ranks in the top 20 in this field in Total Strokes Gained, Strokes Gained: Around the Green and Strokes Gained: Putting.
While he is high-risk based on his season-long form, he has shown enough life lately to be an intriguing flier play from this salary. He has a positive SimLeverage and an ownership projection under 2%.
