NFL Week 5 wraps up with a Monday Night Football matchup between the New Orleans Saints and the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs are listed as 5.5-point home favorites, while the total sits at 43.0.
The Chiefs are currently sitting at 4-0, but it has been far from smooth sailing. They’ve been hit hard by injuries on offense, losing Rashee Rice, Hollywood Brown, and Isiah Pacheco to injuries.
On the other side, the Saints started the year with two very impressive showings, but they’ve lost their past two games.
Can they bounce back against Kansas City, or will the Chiefs continue to roll? Let’s dive in.
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You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
After the past few seasons, it was fair to wonder if Alvin Kamara was still a high-end fantasy running back. He averaged just 3.9 yards per carry – his third straight season at 4.0 or worse – and his trademark athleticism seemed all but gone. He had 180 carries in 2023, yet none of them went for longer than 20 yards.
Fortunately, Kamara looks revitalized in 2024. He’s getting one of the top workloads in football. He’s handled 62% of the team’s rushing attempts, and that number would be higher if not for two straight blowouts to start the year. He handled 93% of the attempts in Week 3 and outcarried Jamal Williams 19-to-3 in Week 4.
Where Kamara really makes his mark is in the passing game. He owns a 22% target share this season, which is the top mark at the RB position. He’s also been targeted on 28% of his routes run. The result is an average of 4.3 receptions and 43.5 receiving yards per game.
Kamara also remains one of the premier touchdown scorers in the NFL. He has six touchdowns through the first four weeks, and he’s scored at least once in three of four games. With Taysom Hill out of the lineup this week, Kamara should be even more prevalent around the goal line.
Ultimately, Kamara has quite possibly the most valuable fantasy workload in all of football. He leads all players in median and ceiling projection, and he’s first in projected Plus/Minus as well.
Patrick Mahomes is the unquestioned best quarterback in football, but he hasn’t exactly been a fantasy stud of late. He was merely QB12 in terms of fantasy points per game last season, and he’s QB17 through the first four weeks. He’s an absolute magician once the playoffs roll around, but he’s not really the same player during the regular season.
That’s not entirely Mahomes’ fault. His pass-catchers have been subpar ever since losing Tyreek Hill to the Dolphins. It looked like he was set up for success with the players the Chiefs brought in this offseason, but injuries to Rice and Brown have left the cupboard bare once again.
Mahomes is also going to have to navigate a tough matchup. The Saints are fourth in pass defense EPA, and they’ve allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to the position. Some of that stems from a matchup vs. Bryce Young, but they’ve also done a solid job against Dak Prescott (11.5 fantasy points), Jalen Hurts (11.9), and Kirk Cousins (8.5).
Add it all up, and it’s tough to get excited about Mahomes at an $11,000 price tag. He should still garner plenty of ownership on this slate, so he’s an interesting fade candidate.
Chris Olave is the Saints’ other stud skill-position player. He hasn’t had the best start to the season, starting with just 3.1 DraftKings points in Week 1 vs. the Panthers. However, his underlying metrics are still excellent. He’s posted a 31% target share over the team’s past three games, and he’s racked up 41% of their air yards.
The Saints simply haven’t thrown the ball all that often to start the year. Derek Carr attempted 25 passes or fewer in each of the team’s first three games. When he was finally forced to take to the air last week, Olave racked up 10 targets.
The Saints are listed as moderate underdogs this week, so they’re likely going to have to air it out a bit vs. the Chiefs. That makes Olave a solid bounce-back option.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Midrange Picks
Carr started the year with two extremely efficient fantasy performances, but he has a long enough track record that it was easy to write it off as a fluke. Sure enough, he came crashing back to reality over the past two weeks, finishing with less than 10 DraftKings points in both contests.
The good news for Carr is that he’ll be an underdog on Sunday night, which has historically been his best split. He’s averaged 18.86 DraftKings points as an underdog with the Saints, including more than 20 as a road underdog (per the Trends tool).
The biggest issue is the price tag. $9,600 feels like too much for Carr in a vacuum, though he does have the third-highest ceiling projection on the slate. That makes him a high-risk, moderate-reward type of play.
With Rice now sidelined, the coast is clear for Xavier Worthy to take over as the team’s top receiver. That said, it remains to be seen if he’s ready for that type of workload.
He had a season-high 85% route participation in Week 4, but he responded with just four targets. He managed to take one of those to the house for a long touchdown, but the overall volume was disappointing.
Ultimately, it seems unlikely that Worthy will step immediately into a prominent role. He’s still one of the top big-play threats in football, but he’s overpriced for his most likely outcome.
The better bet is for Travis Kelce to resume his role as the team’s top pass-catcher. He had been extremely quiet to start the year, but he broke out with nine targets, seven receptions, and 89 receiving yards last week.
We’ve seen this before from Kelce. Just last year, the Chiefs kept him under bubble wrap during the regular season before unleashing him in the playoffs. With Rice now out of the picture, the Chiefs might have to break him out a bit earlier than expected.
Kelce probably isn’t the same player that he was in his prime – he just turned 35 years old – but his chemistry with Mahomes can’t be overstated. Don’t be surprised if Kelce follows up last week’s performance with another big one vs. the Saints.
Rashid Shaheed has historically been a walking big play. He averaged 17.0 yards per touch as a rookie, and he had five touchdowns last year.
This season, Shaheed has earned a more consistent role in the Saints’ passing attack. He has an 88% route participation for the year, and he’s posted a target share of at least 22% in all four games. The big plays remain a huge part of his repertoire – his average depth of target (aDOT) is 15.6 yards downfield – but he’s establishing more of a consistent week-to-week floor.
That’s a scary combination, and Shaheed has scored at least 16.3 DraftKings points in three of his first four games. He had 11 targets last week vs. the Falcons, and he scored long touchdowns vs. the Panthers and Cowboys. That gives him multiple ways to potentially pay off his price tag vs. the Chiefs.
The Chiefs signed Kareem Hunt after the injury to Pacheco, and he was active for the first time in Week 4. After starting the game on the sidelines, he appeared to seize control of the running back job by the end of the game.
Hunt only finished with a 43% snap share, but he received 58% of the team’s carries. He also did some work in the passing game, receiving a target on 18% of his routes. The lone downside was that he lost the goal-line work to Samaje Perine, but he still seems like the back to target in Kansas City.
Perine is less involved on a play-to-play basis, but he does excel in a few key areas. In addition to getting the goal line work last week, he also played on 100% of the long down and distance situations. Those are arguably the two most valuable areas for scoring fantasy points.
Unfortunately, Perine has been priced at a level that makes him tough to target on this slate. He has the second-worst projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings, so his price tag needs to come back to reality before we can consider rostering him.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play for the single-game format. Harrison Butker and the Chiefs Defense should garner some looks, but Blake Grupe and the Saints Defense are projected for single-digit ownership.
- Carson Steele ($4,400 DraftKings) – Steele had the opportunity to start for the Chiefs last week, but he was benched after a fumble. The UDFA should see some opportunities vs. the Saints, but his days as the team’s top runner seem over.
- Justin Watson ($3,400 DraftKings) – The Chiefs have plenty of targets available with Rice out of the picture, and Watson could be one of the biggest beneficiaries. He had a 74% route participation in Week 4.
- Jamal Williams ($3,200 DraftKings) – Williams has had minimal opportunities behind Kamara this season, racking up just 16% of the snaps in back-to-back games. He’s had 10% of the rushes or fewer in both contests.
- JuJu Smith-Schuster ($2,800 DraftKings) – Smith-Schuster should also see a few more snaps following the injury to Rice. He had a 53% route participation last week but failed to earn a single target.
- Noah Gray ($2,600 DraftKings) – The Chiefs could also opt for more two-TE sets sans Rice. Gray didn’t see a huge uptick in routes last week, but he was targeted on 36% of them.
- Juwan Johnson ($2,200 DraftKings) – The Saints use a bit of a committee at tight end, but Johnson is their clear top option. He has just a 5% target share for the year, but he did have a season-high 69% route participation in Week 4.
- Foster Moreau ($1,800 DraftKings) – Moreau is the other TE option for the Saints. However, his routes have been decreasing on a weekly basis.
- Mecole Hardman ($1,200 DraftKings) – Hardman is questionable, and he’s yet to earn a target this season. However, he has elite speed, and he did have a 21% route participation in Week 4.
- Mason Tipton ($1,000 DraftKings) – Tipton is serving as the Saints’ clear WR3, posting a 53% route participation over the past two weeks. He hasn’t had a ton of production, but he’s underpriced for his role.
