It looks like a slightly easier week to find fantasy production this week, with four games featuring totals of 47.5 or higher. However, those games all feature fairly spread out offenses, creating a ton of different ways to approach the slate.
With bye weeks and a London game in the mix, we’re down to 10 teams on the main slate, with the standard 1:00 p.m. Eastern start time.
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the DFS slate.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Stud: Josh Allen ($7,700) Buffalo Bills (+1) at Houston Texans (47.5 total)
The Bills are back on the main slate for the first time since the opening week as they travel to Houston to take on the Texans. That means 2023s overall QB1 Josh Allen is in play.
Allen has had an extremely inconsistent 2024 through four weeks, with two games north of 30 DraftKings points and two games below 10 points. His bad games included a blowout win against the Dolphins and a blowout loss against the top-10 Ravens defense.
Houston has actually been better defensively than Baltimore by DVOA this year, which makes Allen not quite a sure thing this week. On the plus side, Houston is favored by a point and will almost certainly score enough to force Buffalo to stay aggressive.
Allen’s salary means he needs to clear the field by a decent amount to be a good DFS play, but this sets up reasonably well for him to do so. He leads our median and ceiling projections, though he isn’t a great Pts/Sal value.
That means my interest in Allen is limited to GPPs, where he’s worth a shot at low ownership, considering his upside.
Value: Deshaun Watson ($5,300) Cleveland Browns (+3.5) at Washington Commanders (43.5 total)
Watson has been a better fantasy quarterback than a real-life player this season, averaging around 15 DraftKings points per game in a season where quarterback scoring is somewhat down. With his bargain salary, that’s enough to be in the conversation in Week 5.
Especially considering the matchup. Washington has allowed the fourth-most points to opposing QBs and ranks 30th in DVOA against the pass. The Commanders also have a good enough offense of their own to push the scoring here, making this an ideal matchup.
Watson is no longer the massive rushing threat he once was but is still chipping in a few points per game with his legs. He can get there — relative to his salary — through the air, given the near-ideal matchup as well.
It’s ugly, but he’s a solid option with an obvious stacking partner in Amari Cooper ($6,200). He also might get tight end David Njoku ($5,000) back for the first time since Week 1. Watson leads the slate in Pts/Sal projection and is also a strong cash option.
Quick Hits
Jordan Love ($6,500): After a shaky first half, Jordan Love took over down the stretch in his return from injury last week. The Packers QB threw four touchdowns in the final 32 minutes of their win against the Vikings and their top-rated defense. Now he gets a much easier matchup against the Rams, with an extra week to knock the rust off. He’s a solid play this week but best paired with Rams pieces since Green Bay needs to be pushed on the scoreboard.
Brock Purdy ($6,200): Purdy is more floor than ceiling this week, as he should have all of his primary receivers back. I find myself interested in all of the 49ers skill position players, which probably means Purdy is the best option. They’re taking on a Rams team that ranks 31st in DVOA against the pass. I like him more for cash games, where he’s a solid pivot if you can’t stomach Watson at QB.
Anthony Richardson ($6,000): The Colts are taking on the worst defense in the NFL in the Jaguars, and it looks like Richardson could be back in at quarterback. His mobility could be a concern, given the oblique injury, but if he’s at full strength, it’s an excellent buy-low opportunity. There’s too much risk for cash games or tighter builds, but he’s a solid GPP flier with or without pass catchers from his team.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Stud: Jordan Mason ($7,400) San Francisco 49ers (-7.5) vs. Arizona Cardinals (50 Total)
Mason is the no-doubt RB1 on the team with the highest team total on the slate, making him an obviously strong play. He ranks second in our projections in median, behind only Kyren Williams ($7,600).
I prefer Mason at cost, though. While Williams has a higher market share of his team’s carries (Williams and Mason are the two leaders in that category in the NFL), the game script should lead to a considerably higher rush rate for the 49ers.
They’re the slate’s heaviest favorites and have no problem feeding Mason carries to run down the clock. He’s topped 25 DraftKings points in both 49ers wins this season. The Cardinals defense is also below average against the run, so all the signs are there for Mason.
Mason’s ownership projection and limited passing game work make him a sub-optimal GPP play, but he’s a great cash game play. I like pairing him with Purdy, thereby getting exposure to essentially every point and yard picked up by the 49ers offense.
Value: De’Andre Swift ($5,700) Chicago Bears (-4) vs. Carolina Panthers
Because fantasy football is a cruel mistress, De’Andre Swift had his best performance as a Bear last week — when coach speak had suggested he’d be taking a back seat to other Chicago running backs.
Swift saw a slight uptick in usage and a massive uptick in efficiency last week, with the former driven by the game script and the latter by the matchup against a bad Rams defense. Both of those factors persist this week, with the Bears favored against a Carolina team that ranks 31st in points allowed to running backs.
I wouldn’t be entirely shocked to see the Bears mix in their backups more this week, but it seems like Swift did enough to hold onto the RB1 role. Even if he loses some carries, he’s the Bears best receiving back by a wide margin and should be involved in the passing game.
That gives him a solid floor, with room for ceiling if he can break any of his touches into long gains or touchdowns.
Quick Hits
Kyren Williams ($7,600): While I prefer the offensive environment and price tag offered by Mason, it’s close between him and Williams for the slate’s best RB play. Williams has handled a massive workload with the Rams down their top two wide receivers, seeing 26 and 23 opportunities in the last two weeks. His passing game involvement gives him a solid floor. I just worry about his ceiling in a game where the Rams might not score much. For cash games, I want to jam in both Williams and Mason if possible.
Derrick Henry ($7,800): Henry is coming off consecutive games of at least 150 yards and two touchdowns, making him the RB1 in total DraftKings points on the season. He needs positive game scripts to get there, but Baltimore is favored by roughly a field goal this week against the Bengals. I don’t expect another 30+ point explosion from Henry, but it’s within his range of outcomes.
Chuba Hubbard ($6,100): Hubbard is no longer an obvious value play at his Week 5 salary, but he’s still 4x’d his price point in consecutive weeks. He’s been a huge benefactor of the Panthers offense becoming competent, with 100 yards rushing and a touchdown in each of the last two weeks. The Panthers have one of the best offensive line matchups of the week as well, so it could be another big week for Hubbard.
Antonio Gibson ($5,100): My favorite GPP dart-throw at running back is Gibson, who could take over as the Patriots RB1 after Rhamondre Stevenson ($6,000) has fumbled in every game this season. Of course, RB1, for arguably the league’s worst offense, doesn’t guarantee DFS goodness, but he’s worth a look. Especially against a run-funnel Dolphins defense that ranks 30th against the run but 8th against the pass in DVOA.
Tyrone Tracy ($4,300: As of this writing, we haven’t updated projections to reflect the likely absence of Devin Singletary ($6,300), who’s currently listed as doubtful. New York will certainly be without Malik Nabers, leaving them very thin at the skill positions. Enter Tracy, a former college wide receiver who will be the Giants’ lead back without Singletary while also working his way into the passing game. There’s a chance the Giants offense doesn’t produce any usable production this week, but Tracy is worth taking that risk at his near-minimum price. He leads THE BLITZ in Pts/Sal projection.
Alexander Mattison ($5,200): Mattison is hilariously $100 more than the Raiders’ starting back, Zamir White ($5,100), despite seeing 32 fewer carries and only two additional targets this year. Mattison has been far more effective though, with more than double White’s fantasy score. White is now listed as doubtful for the game, which could see Mattison absorb most or all of his carries. Like Tracy, this could be a spot where nobody does anything against a tough Broncos defense, but it’s worth keeping an eye on.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Stud: Nico Collins ($7,700) Houston Texans (-1) vs. Buffalo Bills (47.5)
Wide recevier has been relatively thin at the top over the past few weeks, after a few years of “must play” studs with massive price tags routinely putting up big scores. Injuries have played a big part, with wide receivers on solid offenses getting hurt (Rashee Rice, Cooper Kupp) or quarterback injuries tanking someone’s fantasy value Tyreek Hill ($7,600).
On the flip side of the injury coin, Collins benefited from reduced target competition last week with Tank Dell ($5,400) out of action, making it a two-man wide receiver room for the Texans. Collins drew 15 targets last week en route to a monster game.
Dell is back this week, which means Collins likely falls in the 8-10 target range he had through the first three weeks of the season. That makes him more of a solid play than an obvious smash, but he could still get there through scoring and efficiency.
The game against the Bills might be the best DFS game on the slate, with shootout potential from two solid offenses. If that happens, there’s a strong chance Collins was part of it.
I’m more interested in Collins for team/game stacks built around this game than as a one-off, but he leads the position in median and ceiling projection in our models.
Value: Tre Tucker ($4,100) Las Vegas Raiders (+3) at Denver Broncos (36 Total)
While I obviously would rather not target receivers in a game with a 36 total, the value on Tucker might be too hard to pass up on this week. He’s seen 15 targets and scored a rushing touchdown over the last two weeks, with his role expanding due to the likely trade of Davantae Adams away from Las Vegas.
The 2023 3rd round pick is fast:
That gives him the ability to score from anywhere on the field, though it’s tough betting on big plays against a tough Denver defense. I normally wouldn’t have a ton of interest in Tucker, but there are not many obvious values at the position this week.
He leads our models in Pts/Sal projection, though his range of outcomes is fairly wide.
Quick Hits
Jayden Reed ($6,500) and Dontayvion Wicks ($5,000): We saw how good the Packers passing offense is with Jordan Love last week. This week, targets could be even more concentrated, with Christian Watson doubtful and Romeo Doubs ($5,400) questionable after neither practiced so far this week. We have Wicks projecting as a better value but Reed the better raw play, but both are solid options assuming Watson misses. They go from “good” to “great” if Doubs is also out.
Diontae Johnson ($6,100): Johnson has gone from a great play at his salary to just a great play overall since Andy Dalton took over in Carolina. Johnson has seen an absurd 27 targets over two weeks as Carolina skews pass-heavy with Dalton, and Johnson has limited target competition with Adam Thielen hurt. He’s not cheap anymore, but he’s been producing enough to justify his price tag. I worry a bit about his production against a run-runnel Bears defense, but Johnson’s lower-end score probably won’t kill you.
Tutu Atwell ($4,900) and Jordan Whittington ($4,600): With the Rams missing their top two wideouts, Whittington and Atwell have emerged as (temporary) top options. They have 11 targets each over the past two weeks, though the type of targets is very different. Atwell is a deep threat, with an average depth of target (aDOT) of 14.3 yards. Whittington sees more short area looks, with an aDOT of just 5.3. That gives Atwell the higher ceiling and Whittington the higher floor, but both are solid values at their prices. Be sure to consider their range of outcomes when building around them or the Packers/Rams game.
Wan’Dale Robinson ($5,600): Robinson has drawn 38 targets through four games this year, which is enough to make him a strong value at $5,600. He earned those while competing with the NFL’s most targeted wideout (Malik Nabers), who’s out for Week 5. Robinson is a near-lock for double-digit targets this week with the Giants as seven-point ‘dogs. He trails only Whittington in Pts/Sal projection in THE BLITZ.
Amari Cooper ($6,200): I alluded to Cooper above when discussing his quarterback, but the Browns passing game might have the best possible matchup this week against Washington. Cooper has managed to be a DFS asset despite poor quarterback play, popping up for big games every few weeks. He has an elevated chance to do so, given the matchup and game environment, and he has seen at least eight targets in every game this year.
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NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Stud: Trey McBride ($5,900) Arizona Cardinals (+7.5) at San Francisco 49ers (50 Total)
It’s an ugly week at the top of the tight end salary scale, with the best options facing difficult matchups. Las Vegas’ Brock Bowers ($5,500) is taking on a tough Broncos defense in a game with a 36 total, while McBride draws the 49ers unit.
That game has a total of 50, though, With Arizona’s team total nearly a touchdown higher than the Raiders’. That makes a big difference, with McBride also averaging an extra target per game relative to Bowers.
Neither is a great value relative to their price, but that doesn’t make them bad plays. Both are a touchdown away from being major separators at tight end. Given how bad the position is this (every) week, that makes them worth rostering. I prefer McBride, given the game environment, but Bowers is also in consideration.
Value: Tucker Kraft ($3,500) Green Bay Packers (-3) at LA Rams (48.5 Total)
We talked about the Packers receivers who could benefit from diminished target competition above, with that logic extending to Tucker Kraft. He saw nine targets in a similar spot in Week 4 after earning just seven combined through the first three weeks.
Part of that was due to the game script. Green Bay was chasing points for most of their Week 4 contest against the Vikings. Still, he’ll be more involved in the offense that’s down at least one wide receiver. I’d set his target line around five for this contest, given all the factors.
This doesn’t seem like much, but given the state of the position is fairly solid. He leads most projection systems in Pts/Sal at TE.
Quick Hits
Colby Parkinson ($3,700): The thesis for Parkinson is similar to that of his opposing number Kraft. He’s also playing for a team that’s thin at receiver, which should send some targets his way. Parkinson gets a boost by playing for the Rams, who could be chasing points in this one and thus throwing more. Considering his lower ownership, he’s an excellent GPP pivot from the chalky Kraft.
George Kittle ($5,600): The opposite end of the spectrum is Kittle. He’s a far better player than Parkinson or Kraft but has way more target competition with Deebo Samuel ($6,800) and Brandon Aiyuk ($6,300) active. When the 49ers are at full strength, all of their primary targets will pop up for the occasional big game; it’s just hard to predict who on any given week. He won’t be very popular though, making him worth a look.
Evan Engram ($4,600): One way I can tell at a glance that tight end has been bad this year is by looking at Opponent Plus/Minus. Just one team has allowed more points than expected to the position: The Colts. They’re facing the Jaguars and Engram, who’s been out since Week 1 with an injury. Engram led all tight ends in receptions last year, though. He should step back into that role with a discounted price tag due to injury.
GPP Roster Construction
I’m looking forward to building my GPP rosters this week, as there are a lot of opportunities to build around games in creative ways.
There are three teams with implied totals north of 25 points: the Packers, Ravens, and 49ers. We’re reasonably sure where those points will come from with the Ravens — with Lamar Jackson ($7,500) and Derrick Henry likely to account for most of their scoring.
The other two teams are more up in the air. You could build around either team’s ground game + defense, assuming they control the game through the run. Or, you could take a shot at stacking their quarterbacks with a bring-back from the other team, assuming that the underdogs keep pace and push the scoring.
We also have a Bills vs. Texans game that could produce a ton of points, with two very spread-out offenses. Six different players have caught touchdowns for the Bills this year, while Houston has three wide receivers capable of putting up a big score in any given contest.
Hitting the right combination of pass catchers from both teams is tricky, especially when “naked Josh Allen” is also a potential right answer. I like targeting that game for MME play, where I can get a bit of exposure to all the permutations. It’s a solid place to use SimLabs to generate lineups and take some of the guesswork out.
For more on my favorite GPP approaches, be sure to check out my SimLabs building blocks article.
Cash Games
For the first time all season, cash games seem truly wide open. Part of that is all the injury uncertainty on the slate — this piece is written on Fridays.
Even putting that aside, there are a number of different builds that are reasonable this week. At quarterback, Watson, Richardson, and Purdy are my likeliest options, but with value opening up, I can see a case for paying up for Love or Allen.
I thought it was going to be an obvious week at running back, with Williams and Mason as top plays and Swift underpriced for his role. However, the possible emergence of Tyrone Tracy and Alexander Mattison means there are decisions to be made, namely on whether you want to play two cheap backs or two expensive ones.
The matchup for Swift is so good it’s hard to come off of him at his price tag, but he could be paired with Williams and Mason while saving salary elsewhere or matched up with one of Tracy or Mattison along with one of the more expensive options.
I feel considerably better about Mason than Williams this week, but they’re projecting extremely similarly, so it’s a tough call.
It’s a similar story at receiver, with Robinson, the Rams discounted wideouts, and the Packers options all in the mix. Robinson is my priority, given the pass rate from the Giants this year, and Reed would be as well if both Watson and Doubs are ruled out.
That still leaves at least one spot open, where Whittington/Atwell from the Rams and Tre Tucker as cheap options. It’s also fairly easy to find the salary to get up to Nico Collins in a solid game environment, though his target competition is slightly worrisome.
At least tight end is easy. It’s one of the two from the Packers vs. Rams game, with most projections favoring Tucker Kraft. I’d argue Parkinson has more upside due to the game environment, but it’s a 51/49 decision at a very similar salary.
Defense might be the most obvious spot, with Denver ($2,900) an elite unit (5th in overall DVOA) at home against a dysfunctional Raiders team. You could make a similar case for New England ($2,900) or Washington ($3,000), but the Broncos pass rush is considerably better.
