Week 5 presents a 10-game main slate on DraftKings, and below, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools to find some of the best NFL DFS leverage targets for Week 5.
Specifically, I will be focusing on players’ ownership projections and Leverage Scores within our FantasyLabs Models to identify these contrarian targets. Leverage Scores are a combination of a player’s projected ceiling and ownership. In other words, a high ceiling combined with a low ownership projection means a high leverage score.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups for single-entry or 3-entry max tournaments and our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments. Our optimizer allows you to create up to 300 lineups with the click of a button.
The Lineup Optimizer has endless customization opportunities.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS High-Leverage Stack
Jordan Love ($6,500) + Dontayvion Wicks ($5,000) + Jordan Whittington ($4,600)
With this matchup between the Packers and Rams carrying the second-highest total on the slate (49 points), combining these three players in the same lineup as a game stack is a sharp strategy that doesn’t break the bank. Love, Wicks, and Whittington are all expected to be decently popular options, but very few lineups should feature all three players together.
Love returned from a two-game absence due to a knee injury last week, and the quarterback erupted for a career-best 34.16 DraftKings points in a subpar matchup vs. the Vikings. Love threw for 389 yards and four touchdowns – both of which are also career highs – and he is now averaging 7.4 yards per pass in his two starts this season. Plus, Love ranks 10th among quarterbacks in DraftKings points per dropback (0.54).
After shredding a Minnesota defense last week that is giving up the 11th-fewest yards per pass (6.2), Love gets the ultimate matchup for a quarterback this Sunday, with Los Angeles allowing the most yards per pass in the NFL (8.6). Green Bay boasts the second-highest implied team total on the slate in this spot (26 points), and this is the largest implied total Love has ever played behind as a starter. The quarterback should flourish again this Sunday and is arguably the best quarterback value on the board.
With Christian Watson (ankle) only available for 12% of the snaps last week, Wicks was thrust into a full-time role and went off for 24.5 DraftKings points vs. the Vikings. The wideout ran a route on a season-high 80% of his team’s dropbacks, and he garnered a target on a team-high 29% of his routes. Wicks saw great opportunity in both scoring territory and as a deep threat, with three red-zone targets and an eye-popping five targets over 20 yards. This is truly elite usage, and with Watson not expected to play this Sunday – he has yet to practice this week as of Thursday – Wicks brings massive upside in this superb spot vs. the Rams.
On the other side of this Packers stack, Whittington is a very appealing bring-back option. With Cooper Kupp (ankle) and Puca Nacua (knee) on the shelf, Whittington took a step forward last week as one of the Rams’ primary weapons. The wideout led his team with an 89% route rate and a 27.6% target share, including one red-zone target. Whittington turned this into 12.2 DraftKings points vs. a stout Bears defense that is allowing the ninth-least yards per pass this season (6.0). Now, the receiver gets the luxury of facing a Packers defense that is yielding the eighth-most yards per pass (7.1) in one of the highest totals of the week. In this spot, Whittington brings awesome upside relative to his affordable salary.
NFL DFS Running Back Leverage Pick
James Conner ($6,500)
Conner is expected to get way overlooked this week – he is expected to be only around 2% owned on DraftKings – and is a sensational way to differentiate yourself in GPPs. Conner has been great to start this season, scoring at least 19 DraftKings points in three of his four starts. The veteran has remained a workhorse back for the Cardinals, averaging 16 carries per game and logging 65.3% of the snaps. Conner has handled 66% of Arizona’s running back carries, including 13 red-zone carries, which ranks sixth in the league. As a receiver, Conner has run a route on 47% of his team’s dropbacks, and he has seen a target on 11% of those routes.
Conner faces the 49ers this weekend, who are allowing the 10th-least yards per rush. However, San Francisco has still given up four touchdowns to running backs this season, and the 29-year-old posted 17.9 DraftKings points when he faced the 49ers last season. Furthermore, this game’s total is the highest on the slate (49.5 points), and Conner is averaging a terrific 21 DraftKings PPG for the last seven times he has played in a total of at least 45 points, via the Trends Tool. In fact, only once in those seven games did Conner not recorded at least 17 DraftKings points. In our NFL models, the veteran’s leverage score is the second highest on the slate among running backs.
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Leverage Pick
Brian Thomas Jr. ($5,900)
Thomas Jr. is coming off a season-best 21.9 DraftKings point showing vs. the Texans, and he brings great upside again this Sunday vs. the Colts. The rookie has seen tremendous usage over the last two weeks, seeing nine targets in back-to-back games, including one red-zone target and three targets over 20 yards. During this stretch, Thomas Jr. has been targeted on 27% of his routes, while running a route on 77% of his team’s dropbacks.
This AFC South matchup between the Jaguars and Colts is a clash of two fast-paced teams that presents the fifth-highest total on the slate (46 points). Jacksonville’s implied team is the fifth largest on the board (24.5 points), and Indianapolis is giving up the eighth-most yards per pass this season (7.1). The Colts defense also uses zone coverage at the highest rate in the NFL, and Thomas Jr. has been a stud against zone, ranking 11th in receiving yards vs. zone coverage this season (206). Overall, 74% of Thomas Jr.’s receiving yards and 13 of his 18 receptions have come against zone coverage. This is a prime spot for the LSU product, and he is a sharp way to gain a share of one of this high total, with our projections slating him for single-digit ownership on DraftKings.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Leverage Pick
Cole Kmet ($4,300)
Outside of Kmet’s 25.7 DraftKings point explosion vs. the Colts in Week 3, his numbers haven’t been great this season. However, the tight is due for some positive regression, and this Sunday’s matchup vs. the Panthers is a perfect spot for him to get back on track. This season, Carolina is allowing the sixth-most yards per pass (7.3). Additionally, to tight ends, the Panthers are tied for the most touchdowns allowed (two) and the eighth-most catches allowed (21).
After starting the season in a near timeshare with Gerald Everett, Kmet has returned to being the Bears’ top pass-catching tight end, with his route rate increasing each week to a season-high 77% this past Sunday. Kmet has been targeted on a strong 20% of his routes this season, including four red-zone targets, which is tied for the most among tight ends this season. The Bears carry a solid implied team total of 22.25 points Sunday vs. the Panthers, and Kmet has the potential to be the highest-scoring tight end on the slate in this spot. With the opportunity cost low at tight end and with our projections forecasting him to be only around 6% owned on DraftKings, Kmet is a worthwhile gamble for GPPs.
Note: player and ownership projections may change leading up to lock. Be sure to check out the Player Models for any changes.
