UFC 307 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Pereira vs. Rountree, More Saturday Fights

The UFC takes its annual trip to Salt Lake City, where UFC 307 is headlined by title fights in the light-heavyweight and women’s bantamweight divisions.

The former features Alex Pereira attempting to defend his title for the third time this year, while the latter features former champion Julianna Pena vs. Racquel Pennington.

We have a 6:30 p.m. ET start time and 12 total fights this time around.

We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.

The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:

  • Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
  • Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
  • Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under

These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example. We’ve also added ownership projections by yours truly to help find leverage spots for GPPs.

You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.

Become an All-Access Member Today

Lineup builder and optimizer

Real-time DFS models & projections

Data-driven analysis & tutorials,
 

Main Event

Alex Pereira ($9,600) vs. Khalil Rountree ($6,600)

When the UFC needs a champion to defend their belt to make a PPV card work, they call Alex Pereira. “Poatan” is comepting in his fourth title fight in the last 11 months, while most divisions are lucky to see two title fights in a year.

The drawback of that schedule is that eventually, you run out of entirely deserving challengers, which is arguably the case here. Khalil Rountree is currently ranked eighth in the UFC’s official light heavyweight rankings but is stepping in to challenge for the title.

That explains the outsized price tag on the champion, who has moneyline odds of around -500. With the fight -1100 to end inside the distance, it’s also highly likely that he gets a finish to go with the win. At his price tag, it needs to come early, though, making him a somewhat shaky GPP option.

With two five-round fights, it’s hard to stack both for cash. I prefer taking the favorite here while stacking the women’s title fight. On the GPP front, I want to be over the field on Rountree. Like Pereira, he’s a powerful striker, giving him a puncher’s chance at pulling an upset. When you consider the salary he opens up, he’s worth mixing in at low ownership.

Co-Main Event

Raquel Pennington ($8,400) vs. Juliana Pena ($7,800)

The other title fight on the card is the first defense of Raquel Pennington’s bantamweight crown, which she won following the retirement of former champion Amanda Nunes.

We got the full Raquel Pennington experience in that fight, with “Rocky” controlling the action on the feet with range and volume while mixing in the occasional takedown. It’s not the most impressive style to watch, but Pennington has never lost to a non-champion in the UFC and has consistently handled her business against lesser competition.

Juliana Pena is a former champion, though, winning the title against Amanda Nunes in one of the biggest upsets in UFC history. She then got absolutely battered in the rematch and has sat out for more than two years.

Stylistically, Pena should have the edge on the ground, with Pennington being the better striker. Both typically put up solid scores on a per-minute basis, with decent activity rates. With this fight favored to go the distance, it’s a near-ideal cash game stack.

For GPPs, the winner should find her way into the optimal on this 12-fight slate. The salary is about right for both fighters, so I’ll have a relatively even mix of the two.

The Easy Chalk

Cesar Almeida ($9,400)

Cesar Almeida followed in the footsteps of Israel Adesanya and Alex Pereiera in coming to the UFC. The high-level kickboxer had a trilogy with Pereira in the kickboxing ring, winning one of three fights (with all three going the distance).

He hasn’t found the immediate success Pereira did, with a 1-1 record in the UFC after losing a split decision to Roman Kopylov last time out. The Dagestani-born Kopylov took him down five times, with Ameida unprepared to deal with the grappling.

The UFC gave him a much easier matchup this time around with a fellow striker in Ihoe Potieria ($6,800). “The Duelist” has never landed a takedown in the Octagon and is 3-4 in the promotion with three knockout losses.

Like Pereira, it’s more a matter of “when” than “if” Almeida pulls off the knockout. If it’s in the first round, he’s a great play at his salary. If it’s later, you’re probably a bit disappointed in his score. Either way, he has a rock-solid floor for cash games, though.

The Upside Play

Ryan Spann ($9,200)

Ryan Spann might be the best example of what we call a “glass cannon” in the UFC. He is a powerful fighter with limited defensive ability, whose style typically leads to a finish — just not always for him.

Nine of his 12 UFC fights have ended inside the distance, with Spann providing a near-even mix of knockouts and submissions in both his wins and losses. He’s a heavy favorite to be on the right side of the ledger against Ovince Saint-Preux ($7,000) this time.

“OSP” is 2-3 in his last five, with three knockout losses and two split-decision wins. He’s also 41 years old and declining relatively quickly.

Saint-Preux is a solid grappler who could slow down the pace here, but Spann has massive power, speed, and athleticism advantages. Spann is a bit risky for cash games, given his ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, but he’s a solid GPP option with -160 odds to win by finish.

The Value Play

Carla Esparza ($7,500)

We have plenty of options for cash game salary savers on this card, with eight of the 12 fights favored to go to the judges. The atomweight prelim bout between Esparze and Tecia Pennington ($8,700) — wife of Racquel — is the most likely, though.

I have my concerns about Esparza, who’s making her return after giving birth and has already announced this is her retirement fight. Those are both bad signs for a fighter, at least in terms of actually winning the fight.

However, Esparza doesn’t need to win to be a solid value. Of all the cheap fighters who are likely to last a full 15 minutes, she has by far the most grappling upside, averaging more than three takedowns per 15 minutes in the UFC.

She could put up solid scores even in rounds she loses, which is more than enough at her salary. Other fighters in her price range have more upside for GPPs, but they also carry more risk.

The Contrarian Choice

Joaquin Buckley ($8,800)

Given all of the heavy favorites on the slate, I expect “New Mansa” to get lost in the shuffle. He’s a “pay up to be contrarian” option against Stephen Thompson ($7,400) in the featured prelim of UFC 307.

Buckley started his UFC career at middleweight, where he had a respectable 5-4 record, including possibly the best knockout ever in the UFC:

He’s been even better at welterweight, with four straight wins, including two knockouts and three DraftKings scores of at least 95 points. That’s happened due to his newfound love of wrestling, with eight takedowns in his four fights at 170 pounds.

That could be the key here against Thompson, a Karate stylist who’s been taken down 14 times in his last four fights. Thompson is also 41 years old, putting him at a huge athletic disadvantage to Buckley at this point in his career.

Buckley has both knockout power and takedown upside, making him an ideal DFS option. That makes him an elite play relative to his likely ownership.

Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper promo code LABS1 for a $100 deposit match.

 

The Swing Fight

Kevin Holland ($8,300) vs. Roman Dolidze ($7,900)

The lack of fights likely to end inside the distance outside of those with a heavy favorite makes picking a “swing fight” hard on this card. I typically target fights where I want near-100% exposure to the fight but a somewhat even split between both combatants.

I’m not quite there with this fight, though I’ll have a good amount of both fighters. It’s a somewhat binary matchup between the grappling of Dolidze and the striking of Holland, which gives both fighters a path to upside depending on where the fight takes place.

The drawback is that Dolidze has never been finished as a pro, while Holland has underrated grappling in his own right. Still, both have fairly cheap prices and could pay them off in a decision win.

This isn’t the “no-brainer” fight we sometimes have, but this will most certainly be the non-title fight I have the most exposure to.

The UFC takes its annual trip to Salt Lake City, where UFC 307 is headlined by title fights in the light-heavyweight and women’s bantamweight divisions.

The former features Alex Pereira attempting to defend his title for the third time this year, while the latter features former champion Julianna Pena vs. Racquel Pennington.

We have a 6:30 p.m. ET start time and 12 total fights this time around.

We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.

The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:

  • Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
  • Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
  • Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under

These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example. We’ve also added ownership projections by yours truly to help find leverage spots for GPPs.

You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.

Become an All-Access Member Today

Lineup builder and optimizer

Real-time DFS models & projections

Data-driven analysis & tutorials,
 

Main Event

Alex Pereira ($9,600) vs. Khalil Rountree ($6,600)

When the UFC needs a champion to defend their belt to make a PPV card work, they call Alex Pereira. “Poatan” is comepting in his fourth title fight in the last 11 months, while most divisions are lucky to see two title fights in a year.

The drawback of that schedule is that eventually, you run out of entirely deserving challengers, which is arguably the case here. Khalil Rountree is currently ranked eighth in the UFC’s official light heavyweight rankings but is stepping in to challenge for the title.

That explains the outsized price tag on the champion, who has moneyline odds of around -500. With the fight -1100 to end inside the distance, it’s also highly likely that he gets a finish to go with the win. At his price tag, it needs to come early, though, making him a somewhat shaky GPP option.

With two five-round fights, it’s hard to stack both for cash. I prefer taking the favorite here while stacking the women’s title fight. On the GPP front, I want to be over the field on Rountree. Like Pereira, he’s a powerful striker, giving him a puncher’s chance at pulling an upset. When you consider the salary he opens up, he’s worth mixing in at low ownership.

Co-Main Event

Raquel Pennington ($8,400) vs. Juliana Pena ($7,800)

The other title fight on the card is the first defense of Raquel Pennington’s bantamweight crown, which she won following the retirement of former champion Amanda Nunes.

We got the full Raquel Pennington experience in that fight, with “Rocky” controlling the action on the feet with range and volume while mixing in the occasional takedown. It’s not the most impressive style to watch, but Pennington has never lost to a non-champion in the UFC and has consistently handled her business against lesser competition.

Juliana Pena is a former champion, though, winning the title against Amanda Nunes in one of the biggest upsets in UFC history. She then got absolutely battered in the rematch and has sat out for more than two years.

Stylistically, Pena should have the edge on the ground, with Pennington being the better striker. Both typically put up solid scores on a per-minute basis, with decent activity rates. With this fight favored to go the distance, it’s a near-ideal cash game stack.

For GPPs, the winner should find her way into the optimal on this 12-fight slate. The salary is about right for both fighters, so I’ll have a relatively even mix of the two.

The Easy Chalk

Cesar Almeida ($9,400)

Cesar Almeida followed in the footsteps of Israel Adesanya and Alex Pereiera in coming to the UFC. The high-level kickboxer had a trilogy with Pereira in the kickboxing ring, winning one of three fights (with all three going the distance).

He hasn’t found the immediate success Pereira did, with a 1-1 record in the UFC after losing a split decision to Roman Kopylov last time out. The Dagestani-born Kopylov took him down five times, with Ameida unprepared to deal with the grappling.

The UFC gave him a much easier matchup this time around with a fellow striker in Ihoe Potieria ($6,800). “The Duelist” has never landed a takedown in the Octagon and is 3-4 in the promotion with three knockout losses.

Like Pereira, it’s more a matter of “when” than “if” Almeida pulls off the knockout. If it’s in the first round, he’s a great play at his salary. If it’s later, you’re probably a bit disappointed in his score. Either way, he has a rock-solid floor for cash games, though.

The Upside Play

Ryan Spann ($9,200)

Ryan Spann might be the best example of what we call a “glass cannon” in the UFC. He is a powerful fighter with limited defensive ability, whose style typically leads to a finish — just not always for him.

Nine of his 12 UFC fights have ended inside the distance, with Spann providing a near-even mix of knockouts and submissions in both his wins and losses. He’s a heavy favorite to be on the right side of the ledger against Ovince Saint-Preux ($7,000) this time.

“OSP” is 2-3 in his last five, with three knockout losses and two split-decision wins. He’s also 41 years old and declining relatively quickly.

Saint-Preux is a solid grappler who could slow down the pace here, but Spann has massive power, speed, and athleticism advantages. Spann is a bit risky for cash games, given his ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, but he’s a solid GPP option with -160 odds to win by finish.

The Value Play

Carla Esparza ($7,500)

We have plenty of options for cash game salary savers on this card, with eight of the 12 fights favored to go to the judges. The atomweight prelim bout between Esparze and Tecia Pennington ($8,700) — wife of Racquel — is the most likely, though.

I have my concerns about Esparza, who’s making her return after giving birth and has already announced this is her retirement fight. Those are both bad signs for a fighter, at least in terms of actually winning the fight.

However, Esparza doesn’t need to win to be a solid value. Of all the cheap fighters who are likely to last a full 15 minutes, she has by far the most grappling upside, averaging more than three takedowns per 15 minutes in the UFC.

She could put up solid scores even in rounds she loses, which is more than enough at her salary. Other fighters in her price range have more upside for GPPs, but they also carry more risk.

The Contrarian Choice

Joaquin Buckley ($8,800)

Given all of the heavy favorites on the slate, I expect “New Mansa” to get lost in the shuffle. He’s a “pay up to be contrarian” option against Stephen Thompson ($7,400) in the featured prelim of UFC 307.

Buckley started his UFC career at middleweight, where he had a respectable 5-4 record, including possibly the best knockout ever in the UFC:

He’s been even better at welterweight, with four straight wins, including two knockouts and three DraftKings scores of at least 95 points. That’s happened due to his newfound love of wrestling, with eight takedowns in his four fights at 170 pounds.

That could be the key here against Thompson, a Karate stylist who’s been taken down 14 times in his last four fights. Thompson is also 41 years old, putting him at a huge athletic disadvantage to Buckley at this point in his career.

Buckley has both knockout power and takedown upside, making him an ideal DFS option. That makes him an elite play relative to his likely ownership.

Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper promo code LABS1 for a $100 deposit match.

 

The Swing Fight

Kevin Holland ($8,300) vs. Roman Dolidze ($7,900)

The lack of fights likely to end inside the distance outside of those with a heavy favorite makes picking a “swing fight” hard on this card. I typically target fights where I want near-100% exposure to the fight but a somewhat even split between both combatants.

I’m not quite there with this fight, though I’ll have a good amount of both fighters. It’s a somewhat binary matchup between the grappling of Dolidze and the striking of Holland, which gives both fighters a path to upside depending on where the fight takes place.

The drawback is that Dolidze has never been finished as a pro, while Holland has underrated grappling in his own right. Still, both have fairly cheap prices and could pay them off in a decision win.

This isn’t the “no-brainer” fight we sometimes have, but this will most certainly be the non-title fight I have the most exposure to.

About the Author

Billy Ward writes NFL, MLB, and UFC DFS content for FantasyLabs. He has a degree in mathematical economics and a statistics minor. Ward's data-focused education allows him to take an analytical approach to betting and fantasy sports. Prior to joining Action and FantasyLabs in 2021, he contributed as a freelancer starting in 2018. He is also a former Professional MMA fighter.