It’s crazy that we’re already four weeks into the NFL season! Week 5 is the first part of the middle section of the season, which regularly includes bye weeks and early games from London. As a result, the main DFS fantasy football slate on DraftKings in Week 5 is 10 games instead of the 12 games we’ve had on the board in for each of the last two weeks. It should still be a busy Sunday, though, with six games in the early wave at 1:00 p.m. ET and four games kicking off after 4:00 p.m. ET in the later wave.
With 20 teams in the Week 5 player pool, it’s never too early to start strategizing for your NLF DFS lineups for Week 5. Some potential values are already popping in our early projections, and you definitely want to have these values on your radar for this week.
Throughout the season, every Wednesday, I’ll be taking a look at the players who are standing out as top values for the coming week by using the early projections in our NFL Player Models. Of course, these models update frequently.
Things will likely change between now and Sunday, but it’s still good to have a plan of attack.
If there’s news between now and lock — and there will be — the models will update to reflect that.
As always, they’re powered by Sean Koerner — one of the most accurate fantasy rankers in the industry.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Values
Brock Purdy ($6,200) San Francisco 49ers (-7.5) at Arizona Cardinals (49.5 total)
It sets up to be a wild week when different sets or projections point in different directions. Koerner’s projections give Anthony Richardson ($6,000) the highest Projected Plus/Minus of any quarterback, while Raybon’s projections point to Justin Fields ($5,800), and Carty’s give the edge to Brock Purdy ($6,200). While all three have nice upside and great potential this week, this is exactly where a blended aggregate can really help us out. If you evenly blend the three projections together, Purdy gets a slight advantage at this point in the week. Things shift, though, and all three are solid options, so be sure to check back before locking in your final answer.
Purdy gets a boost from playing the Cardinals, who have been the fourth-best matchup for QBs so far this season. They were torn apart by Jayden Daniels ($6,800) last week and have allowed an average of 220 passing yards each week while giving up five passing scores and three QB rushing touchdowns in their four games this season.
As he leads his 49ers into Arizona for this divisional matchup, Purdy should have an almost full set of playmakers. While Christian McCaffrey (Achilles) is still out, Deebo Samuel Sr. ($6,800) and George Kittle ($5,600) both returned from injury last week. Purdy threw for 288 yards and one touchdown in San Francisco’s 30-13 win over New England and now has over 280 passing yards and over 15 fantasy points in three straight games.
Purdy doesn’t usually bring the high ceiling that some of the dual-threat options offer, but for now, at least, his matchup is enough to make him the best value in our combined projections for this Sunday.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Values
Diontae Johnson ($6,100) Carolina Panthers (+4) at Chicago Bears (41.5 total)
Like at QB, the different projections point different directions at receiver, with Dontayvion Wicks ($5,000), Josh Downs ($5,100), and Tutu Atwlel ($4,900) standing out as good values along with Johnson, who takes the top spot in Projected Plus/Minus in the aggregate for the second straight week.
Johnson has been revitalized since Andy Dalton ($5,400) replaced Bryce Young ($4,900) in Week 3. He went off for 29.2 DraftKings points in Week 3 and 21.3 DraftKings points in Week 4 after producing just 3.9 DraftKings points and 4.5 DraftKings points in the first two weeks of the season. He has been targeted a massive 27 times in the two games that Dalton has started and found the end zone in each contest.
With Adam Thielen (hamstring) on IR, Johnson should continue to get plenty of passes thrown his direction again on Sunday in Chicago. The Bears have been solid on defense in the first four weeks of the season but have allowed an average of 10.3 catches per game to opposing WR. Last week, Atwell had 82 yards, and Jordan Whittington ($4,600) also had solid numbers with six catches for 62 yards.
It’s clear that the Panthers aren’t afraid to let Dalton throw the ball around since he has attempted 37 and 40 passes in his first two starts. With so much volume available and in his role as the clear go-to option, Johnson is a great play again this week at barely over $6,000.
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NFL DFS Running Back Values
Kyren Williams ($7,600) Los Angeles Rams (+3) vs. Green Bay Packers (48.5 total)
It’s important to remember that value doesn’t always equal cheap. The top two options in Projected Plus/Minus at running back this week are the second and third most expensive plays at the position but both are poised for huge games and are projected to outproduce salary-based expectations significantly. Both Williams and Jordan Mason ($7,400) are strong plays to consider, but Williams edges Mason out in the aggregated projections for the best Projected Plus/Minus and most Pts/Sal.
Williams has been the focus of the Rams offense this season with injuries wiping out the team’s receivers. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his first four games this season with 31.7 DraftKings points and 20.4 DraftKings points in the past two weeks.
He has five rushing touchdowns and a receiving score in those four games, with 13 catches on 14 targets out of the backfield. The Rams will have to continue to lean on him heavily since both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua are a ways from being able to return.
The Packers have given up huge games to opposing running backs against Saquon Barkley and Jonathan Taylor in the early part of the season, and Aaron Jones had almost 100 rushing yards against them last week as well.
Facing Green Bay at home should be a heavy-usage, high-upside place to build around Williams as a pay-up play in Week 5.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Values
Tucker Kraft ($3,500) Green Bay Packers (-3) at Los Angeles Rams (48.5 total)
Kraft has the highest Projected Plus/Minus in Raybon’s projections at tight end this week and the highest Projected Plus/Minus in the three-way aggregate as well. He has emerged as a key part of the Packers passing game, which looked very good in the second half against the Vikings in Jordan Love’s ($6,500) return.
Throughout the season, Kraft has been the team’s top tight end ahead of Luke Musgrave ($2,700). Kraft has produced multiple catches in every game this season, even while Love was out. He had a total of six catches for 77 yards in his first three games and then went off for six catches for 53 yards in Week 4 against the Vikings. He also scored his first touchdown of the season, making him the highest-scoring TE of the week.
This week, he and the Packers will take on the Rams, who have given up an average of 51.75 receiving yards per week to the position. Kraft could get more work for the next few weeks if Christian Watson (ankle) is sidelined as expected. He’ll be one of several Packers pass catchers to consider for Week 5 if Watson is ruled out.
