Last NFL season, our new SimLabs tool went live to the public. It’s a powerful new feature that allows casual players to build competitive lineups effortlessly — or serious players to leverage their convictions more effectively. This week, we’ve also added the feature of being able to export lineups from SimLabs directly to our models for easy tweaking of lineups.
I broke down some general uses of the tool from an evergreen perspective earlier in the year. Moving forward, we’ll be checking out some suggested starting points for building lineups.
The process is simple: from the SimLabs home screen, first select the field size and desired range of outcomes for your lineups. The field size depends on the contest type, while the “results range” allows you to customize how unique you want your lineups to be.
Then, find the box titled “include players” and type your preferred options — then sit back and let the sims do their thing. You can generate as many or as few lineups as you want, then upload directly to DraftKings to be entered into contests.
For more on what SimLabs is and how it works, check out our user guide.
Let’s check out some potential starting points in Week 4.
Terry McLaurin + Jayden Daniels
One of my favorite features of SimLabs is the “Optimal vs. Projected Ownership” chart on the side of the home page. Trying to decide if a player is a value relative to their ownership is a tricky task, and doing it by ranking rather than how often they appear in the optimal lineup isn’t an ideal method.
Looking at that data this week, the top quarterback is Jayden Daniels, and the top wide receiver is Terry McLaurin. Daniels is expected to be popular, with the highest ownership projection on the slate. However, not popular enough based on our sims.
McLaurin is not expected to draw much attention despite a high ceiling and a $5,800 price tag. It’s somewhat rare to see a top receiver so much less popular than their quarterback since we get to play three or four wideouts but just one QB.
It makes some sense here, as Daniels produces a lot of fantasy points with his legs. However, to get to a slate-winning score at his $6,500 salary, he’ll need to produce points through the air. This is where McLaurin and his league-leading air yards share come in.
On the flip side, it’s highly unlikely that McLaurin has a good game, but Daniel doesn’t, so it makes sense to play them together.
Check out how our SimLabs Lineup Generator works:
Kyler Murray + Brian Robinson
With the Commanders-Cardinals game having the highest total on the slate by a decent margin, I’m interested in both sides of the contest. At quarterback, that means Murray, who gets to face the league’s worst passing defense.
However, with Murray $300 more expensive than Daniels, rostering Murray is a bet on Daniels failing — or at least falling short of Murray’s score. That’s important to think about, as a game where one QB goes off likely leads to increased pass rates — and thus fantasy production — from the other.
So, how does Daniels fail when Murray succeeds? The most likely method is through the Commanders scoring points on the ground. This is where Robinson comes in. He should have the backfield mostly to himself, as Austin Ekeler is out with a concussion.
After locking in that pairing, we still might get some pass catchers from Washington and will almost certainly get some from Arizona, but that’s what the sims are for.
Be sure to check out all the pick ’em Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper promo code LABS1 for a $100 deposit match.
Caleb Williams + James Conner
Caleb Williams is on a similar trajectory as Daniels, with noticeable improvements each game of his rookie career. He doesn’t provide as much with his legs, but he’s got a talented pass-catching corps and a strong matchup against an injury-riddled Rams team.
Of course, for him to win a GPP that means neither Murray nor Daniels is posting a massive score. That could happen from that game simply falling short of expectation — but that’s not the only way.
The other method is that the Cardinals control the game and the clock on the ground with Conner. A game where Conner is going off means limited possessions for the Commanders and limited production from Murray for the Cardinals.
It seems like an unrelated pairing with Williams, but by rostering Williams, you’re also betting on the other quarterbacks not to outscore him. Therefore, it’s worth thinking through how that could happen.
