The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL DFS product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling, and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings and values for this week’s slate.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the week after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Top Ceiling: Jayden Daniels at Arizona – $6,500 on DraftKings, $8,200 on FanDuel
Daniels looked exceptional on Monday Night Football, leading his Commanders to a win over the Bengals in an awesome game. He finished with an impressive stat line and gets a good matchup on Sunday, so he takes the top ceiling spot.
Throughout this post, I’ll be using an evenly balanced, three-way aggregate of Chris Raybon’s, Sean Koerner’s, and THE BLITZ’s projections. In that aggregate, Daniels has the highest median and ceiling projections of all quarterbacks on DraftKings’ main slate. He also has the highest Projected Plus/Minus and Pts/Sal at the position on DraftKings.
He only has the sixth-highest salary on both DraftKings and FanDuel and should be able to outproduce that price point if he can build on Monday’s strong showing. In that breakout performance, Daniels threw for 254 yards and two touchdowns while completing 21-of-23 pass attempts. He added 39 yards and a third touchdown on the ground to total 28.06 DraftKings and FanDuel points.
He exceeded salary-based expectations in two of his three games this season and has a very high ceiling with his dual-threat potential. In Week 1, the Cardinals defense struggled to contain dual-threat Josh Allen, and they have given up the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing QBs per game this season.
Daniels and Kyler Murray should both be strong plays as they meet in the matchup with the highest over/under on Sunday’s slate. This game also sets up as a potential revenge game for Commanders OC Kliff Kingsbury, so Daniels should have the chance to pile up plenty of points.
Top Value: Justin Fields at Indianapolis Colts – $5,500 on DraftKings, $6,800 on FanDuel
The Steelers are a surprising 3-0 behind a strong start to the season from Justin Fields and a stingy defense. Fields has the highest Projected Plus/Minus and Pts/Sal of all QBs in the aggregate on FanDuel and the third-highest on DraftKigns behind only Daniels and Murray. He stands out as the best low-cost option on both sites.
Last week, Fields had his best statistical game of the season, totaling 19.4 DraftKings points by throwing for a season-high 245 yards and a touchdown while also rushing for a touchdown as part of his six carries for six yards. He ran for over 50 yards in Week 1 but has been able to run less and throw more each week. He can be effective and productive as either a rusher or passer, which gives him a high ceiling, especially for a play so cheap.
Fields will face another dual-threat QB on Sunday as he takes on Anthony Richardson. The Colts defense gave up 363 passing yards and two passing touchdowns to rookie Caleb Williams last week and also gave up multiple passing scores when they faced C.J. Stroud in Week 1. While Malik Willis didn’t light them up in Week 2, he did run for 41 yards on six rush attempts.
The Colts defense has allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to opposing QBs and should be a good matchup for Fields to attack in Week 4. If you’re going with a cheap QB to build stars into other spots, Fields brings plenty of upside since he is a dual threat like Daniels, Murray and most of the other top fantasy plays.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Top Ceiling: Kyren Williams at Chicago Bears – $7,300 on DraftKings, $8,100 on FanDuel
Williams is one of several star running backs in smash spots this week. Jordan Mason should have a strong bounce back against the Patriots, and Alvin Kamara could chew up the Falcons as long as he’s healthy, but Williams is my favorite of the group coming off his monster performance last week into this week’s battle with the Bears.
In THE BLITZ projections, Williams has the highest ceiling projection of all running backs, while he has the fifth-highest in the aggregate on DraftKings and the fourth-highest on FanDuel. He also has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position on FanDuel.
With both Puka Nacua (knee) and Cooper Kupp (ankle) sidelined, Williams carried the load as the focus of the offense last week. He took 24 carries for 89 yards and two touchdowns against the 49ers and added a pair of receptions for 27 more yards and a third touchdown. He finished with 31.6 DraftKings points, the third-highest total of the week at running back.
Williams also scored a rushing touchdown in each of the first two weeks of the season and has dominated the backfield, playing at least 90% of the team’s snaps in the Rams’ two competitive games. He’s an every-down back in Sean McVay’s offense and will get a heavy workload again this week.
The Bears gave up three RB touchdowns last week to the Colts and have given up an average of 96.3 rushing yards per week to the position. With limited options at other playmaking positions, the Rams will rely on Williams this week, making him the safest play with the highest upside on the main slate.
Top Value: Chuba Hubbard vs. Cincinnati Bengals – $5,700 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel
Hubbard was a great option as my value play in Week 3, and he’s back in this spot again after his breakthrough performance. Going back to our aggregate projections, he has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all running backs with salaries under $6,000 on DraftKings and the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus overall on FanDuel.
Even though Miles Sanders has gotten a few carries, Hubbard has gotten most of the work for the Panthers while rookie Jonathan Brooks (knee) works his way back from injury. While Brooks could return as soon as next week, Hubbard should again lead the way against the Bengals this week.
With Andy Dalton taking over for Bryce Young last week, the Panthers offense looked much more viable. Hubbard started the season slowly against the Saints in Week 1 but exceeded salary-based expectations in Week 2 before breaking out with 114 rushing yards, five catches, and a receiving touchdown last week. His 30.9 DraftKings points were the fourth-highest at the position, so getting him so cheap is a play with great upside in Week 4.
The Bengals gave up a pair of RB touchdowns to the Commanders last Monday and also let Daniels run for a score. They have averaged 107 rushing yards allowed to running backs in their three games this season, so Hubbard should find room to operate for a second straight week as Andy Dalton goes for a potential revenge game against the Bengals this week.
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Top Ceiling: Rashee Rice at Los Angeles Chargers – $7,300 on DraftKings, $8,500 on FanDuel
Rice has the second-highest ceiling projection in the aggregated projections on DraftKings and the third-highest on FanDuel. He makes sense as a potential pay-up play, especially on DraftKings where he brings a 71% Bargain Rating.
Rice has exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his three games this season and clearly remains the go-to receiver in the Chiefs passing game. He finished with 12 catches and 110 receiving yards on 14 targets last week against the Falcons and found the end zone for a second straight week. Rice ended up with more than half of Patrick Mahomes’ passing yards in the Chiefs’ narrow win, and he’ll continue to be the focus of the offense, especially with Isiah Pacheco (fibula) on IR and Travis Kelce continuing to struggle.
The Chargers don’t look like a favorable matchup at first glance since they have limited opposing receivers, but in reality, they are very untested since they have only faced the Raiders, Panthers (pre-Dalton era), and Steelers. They let Calvin Austin III get loose for a long touchdown last week and gave up 183 receiving yards to Pittsburgh’s receivers.
Since Rice should continue to get plenty of targets, the dynamic playmaker is a great option to build around at WR and offers significant savings compared to Justin Jefferson at the top of the salary structure.
Top Value: Diontae Johnson vs. Cincinnati Bengals – $5,600 on DraftKings, $6,200 on FanDuel
Johnson got a huge boost last week from getting Dalton at QB instead of the struggling Bryce Young. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all receivers on both DraftKings and FanDuel in the aggregate, Raybon’s and Koerner’s projections.
After totaling just 34 yards in the first two weeks, Johnson went off for 122 receiving yards and a touchdown. He finished with a team-high 14 targets, while no other Panther got more than five targets. With Adam Thielen (hamstring) on IR, Johnson should get plenty of volume this week against the Bengals.
Last week, Cincinnati gave up 12 catches for 189 yards and a touchdown to the Commanders receivers and were beaten up by Rice and the Chiefs in Week 2.
Johnson is likely to be a chalky value play at receiver, but his volume makes him very hard to overlook since he has both a high ceiling and a high floor. If you want an option with much lower projected ownership for more leverage, value options to consider on DraftKings include Elijah Moore of the Browns, Ray-Ray McCloud of the Falcons, and Gabe Davis of the Jaguars. On FanDuel, Drake London, Demarcus Robinson, and Moore stand out as high-leverage alternatives.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Top Ceiling: Dallas Goedert at Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $5,100 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel
Tight end has been a rough position so far this season, with lower production from several big names. In addition, many of the top options are now dealing with injury question marks. The top option I’m confident in this week is Goedert, who started the year slowly but dominated last week after DeVonta Smith (concussion) left with an injury, joining A.J. Brown (hamstring) on the sideline.
Goedert has the second-highest ceiling projection on both DraftKings and FanDuel in the aggregate projections and should get all the work he can handle if Smith and Brown are both ruled out.
Last week, Goedert caught 10 of his 11 targets for 170 yards and a massive 30 points on DraftKings. It was the best tight-end score of the week and moved him all the way up to the top spot of the position on the season. Production has been so inconsistent at this spot all season that getting someone coming off a big game with a big expected opportunity is too good to pass up.
Top Value: Colby Parkinson at Chicago Bears – $3,700 on DraftKings, $5,200 on FanDuel
With tight-end production down overall, getting cheap production has been almost impossible. Parkinson has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all tight ends on DraftKings and the third-highest on FanDuel.
He should get plenty of targets coming his way without Nacua and Kupp. Last week, he only had three catches for 21 yards but did draw five targets, including one in the red zone. He has a red-zone target in each of the last two weeks, so he has touchdown potential even though he hasn’t scored yet this season.
The Bears gave up four catches to tight ends in both Week 1 and Week 2 before the Colts didn’t use their tight ends much last week. Since the Rams are so thin at receiver, Parkinson and Williams both should benefit from the addition work in Chicago.
