It’s somewhat of an ugly slate, with only three games with totals over 45 points on the 12-game slate. We also don’t have many obvious values — depending on some late injury news — so we’re likely to see some lower winning scores on the week.
As always, the 12-game slate locks at 1:00 p.m. ET.
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the DFS slate.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Stud: Jayden Daniels ($6,500) Washington Commanders (+3.5) at Arizona Cardinals (50.5 Total)
The price tag on electric rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels continues to rise after he was just $5,700 in Week 1. Something tells me $6,500 isn’t the high water mark, as Daniels has topped 28 DraftKings points in two of his first three starts.
He’s run for 171 yards and three touchdowns through three games, putting him at just under 12 points per game before he ever throws a pass. Daniels has made big strides as a passer already though. He’s increased his accuracy rate and yardage in each of the Commanders first three games and threw his first two touchdown passes last week.
While there’s not much room to improve on the 91.3% completion rate from last week, we could see an even bigger yardage number this time around. Besides his continued progression as a passer, this is also the best matchup of the season for Daniels.
Arizona ranks 29th in DVOA against the pass, and this game has the highest total on the slate by a solid margin. It’s hard to ask for much more.
Daniels will deservedly be the most popular quarterback on the slate, as he also leads the field in Pts/Sal and median projections. He’s a near-lock for cash games and should be a major part of your GPP plans with or without a stacking partner.
Value: Andy Dalton ($5,300) Carolina Panthers (+4.5) at Cincinnati Bengals (47.5 Total)
The only thing preventing Daniels from being a total lock in cash games is Andy Dalton. It’s a revenge game for the Red Rocket, as he travels back to Cincinnati to take on his former team.
Dalton is obviously nowhere near as dynamic a player as Daniels. He’s also $1,200 cheaper and looked good in his first start of the year. He put up 319 yards and three touchdowns while leading the Panthers to their first win of the season.
He draws a similar matchup on paper this week against the Bengals, who rank 26th in DVOA against the pass, with the Raiders at 27th. This game also features a solid 47.5 total (second best on the slate), with the Panthers as slight underdogs.
That should make a near-perfect game environment for the Panthers to air it out, with a quietly solid group of weapons for Dalton and the Panthers. If rostering Dalton in GPPs, I prefer him as part of full game stacks based around this one going off.
Quick Hits
Kyler Murray ($6,800): Murray would be a lot more attractive if he weren’t $300 more than Daniels on the other side of the same game. However, that makes him an awesome leverage play. The Commanders are the best matchup in the league for opposing QBs, ranking 32nd in DVOA against the pass after finishing 2023 32nd in DVOA. They’ve allowed two of three opposing QBs to break 28 DraftKings points, and the third was Daniel Jones, who had a strong (for him) 18.32 points. Kyler could go absolutely nuclear here.
Caleb Williams ($5,600): Williams is basically Daniels without the rushing upside. Like Daniels, he’s improved his stat line every game this season, culminating in 363 yards and two touchdowns in Week 3. Also, like Daniels, he gets the best matchup of his young career against a depleted Rams team that ranks 31st in DVOA against the pass. The $900 in savings from Daniels doesn’t really justify taking less rushing upside and a worse game environment — but the much lower ownership might.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Stud: Saquon Barkley ($8,000) Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5) at Tampa Bay Bucs (43 Total)
Our projections prefer Alvin Kamara ($7,600) at the top of the RB scale, but I’m more interested in Barkley. Largely thanks to the injury situation on both teams.
Kamara missed Wednesday’s practice and was limited Thursday, and is officially questionable. He’s very likely to play but could see a reduced workload, especially with Taysom Hill ($3,800) expected back.
On the Philly side, the Eagles will likely be without their top two wideouts in AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith, a situation that led to an increased rush rate last week for Barkley. He’s been one of a few true workhorse RBs left in the league, with an 85% snap share and a league-high 73 touches through three weeks.
I also like the situation better for Barkley. His Eagles are a slight favorite (the Saints are underdogs) in a game with a slightly higher total. That’s enough for me to justify the extra $400 in salary, though Kamara is a fine play at his price tag as well.
Value: Najee Harris ($5,600) Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.5) at Indianapolis Colts (40 total)
This pick comes with a caveat, as it hinges on the health of fellow Steelers back Jaylen Warren ($5,100). Warren was a DNP both Wednesday and Thursday, and is looking doubtful for Sunday’s game.
If he misses, Harris has a chance to see a near-workhorse role on Sunday at a bargain price. As it stands, he has a 54% snap share this year, yielding around 35% to Warren and another 20% to Cordarelle Patterson ($4,300).
This being an Arthur Smith offense, Patterson will certainly absorb some of the leftover touches if Warren misses, but we should still see Harris in the 65%-70% range in terms of RB opportunities. Quarterback Justin Fields ($5,500) will vulture some rushing too — but at Najee’s price point, we can deal with that.
Harris has somewhat limited upside, thanks to the offense he plays for, but his solid pass-game role gives him a strong floor. He’s a great cash game play if Warren misses, with some GPP utility if spending up at other positions.
Quick Hits
Kyren Williams ($7,300): The case for Williams is similar to that for Barkley. His team is missing its two top wide receivers, leaving Williams as the most dynamic weapon on an offense that should shift heavily to the run. He leads all running backs in snap share and share of his team’s rushing attempts, and unlike Barkley, doesn’t have to worry about his quarterback culturing goal-line touchdowns. He’s also facing a Bears team with the worst Opponent Plus/Minus scores against RBs on the slate. Williams is a priority play for me in all contest types.
Breece Hall ($7,800): Hall is slowly ceding carries to rookie Braelon Allen ($5,400), who’s seen his carry count increase each game of the 2024 season. However, Hall is still averaging more than six targets per game and is effectively the Jets’ #2 receiver at this point. Given Hall’s explosive ability, he could still easily pay off his salary, though the emergence of Allen makes him a bit thinner of a play than Barkley/Kamara/Williams. Allen is also a sneaky GPP play if you think the Jets (7.5-point favorites) blow out the Broncos here, as he would see the bulk of the garbage time carries.
Aaron Jones ($6,400) Jones leads our projections in Pts/Sal as of Friday afternoon, though we’re still giving some points to Warren, which means Harris will pass Jones should Warren miss. Jones is still a solid play, though, with an average of 14 carries and just under five targets per game. He seems to randomly pop up for a couple of slate-winning scores per season, and a revenge game against the Packers is as good a spot as any for it to happen.
Chuba Hubbard ($5,700): Hubbard is the other cheap option I’m interested in this week, as he’s instantly more valuable with Andy Dalton under center than Bryce Young. The improved game script last week led to a season-high 21 carries for Hubbard, and he added an additional five targets. The Bengals are a tougher run defense than the Raiders, so his efficiency might not be there, but he’s projecting for a lot of volume relative to his price tag.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Stud: Rashee Rice ($7,300) Kansas City Chiefs (-7) at Los Angeles Chargers (40 Total)
Rashee Rice is having quite the sophomore season. With the Chiefs adding deep threat Xavier Worthy ($5,700) to draw defensive attention and Travis Kelce ($5,800) having a limited role early in the season, the stars have aligned for Rice to emerge as the #1 passing option for Patrick Mahomes ($7,100) and the Chiefs.
Rice is one of just two players with a 30% target share so far this season, the other being Malik Nabers, who played Thursday night. Those targets are far more valuable coming from Mahomes as well, giving Rice the best workload in the NFL at the position.
His 5.2 aDOT leaves plenty to be desired, but on full-PPR DraftKings, I’ll take the easy catches. Rice also has the yards after catch (YAC) ability to turn short passes into big gains, with his 7.8 YAC/reception a top-10 mark among receivers with at least two catches per game.
The Chargers are on the tougher side of the matchup spectrum, but Rice still brings an elite floor thanks to his volume. He’s a solid cash game play if you have the salary, though I’m less enthused about his GPP outlook.
Value: Diontae Johnson ($5,600) Carolina Panthers (+4.5) at Cincinnati Bengals (47.5 Total)
One of the reasons I’m prioritizing Jayden Daniels over Andy Dalton at quarterback in cash is due to the ability to capture most of Dalton’s production through other means. Dalton doesn’t really run, but he will lock in on his top receiver.
In this case that’s Johnson, who saw 14 targets on 37 Dalton pass attempts last week, good for a 38% target share. While he’s unlikely to see that many again, he’d be a solid play at roughly half that workload.
As we discussed with Dalton, it’s a similarly attractive matchup through the air for the Panthers, as we saw last week. It’s also an excellent game environment, and the underdog Panthers should be forced to throw for most of the game.
Johnson is about $1,000 too cheap here and is a cash game lock with plenty of GPP upside. He leads our Pts/Sal projections by a comfortable margin.
Quick Hits
Greg Dortch ($4,300): With tight end Trey McBride and his 23% target share out for Week 4, there’s plenty of opportunity to be had in the Cardinals passing game. Some of that should fall to Dortch, who’s already averaging just over five targets per game. Now he gets the best matchup in the league and less target competition at a cheap salary, making him an excellent play. The same can be said for Cards #1 WR Marvin Harrison ($7,500) at the other end of the salary scale.
Stefon Diggs ($6,600) and Nico Collins ($7,200): Tank Dell will be out for the Texans this week, after missing practice every day through Friday. That makes it a bit easier to target the Texans’ remaining wideouts due to less target competition. I prefer Diggs since Collins is also dealing with an injury and could be limited, but both are worth a look. The Texans’ 25.5 team total is tied for third on the slate, with the Jaguars as a heavy pass-funnel defense.
Rome Odunze ($5,200): Odunze doesn’t get the most targets in the Bears offense — that distinction belongs to DJ Moore ($6,700). He gets the most valuable targets, though, with an aDOT of 16.6. That makes him a boom-or-bust GPP option and an excellent stacking partner for Caleb Williams.
Terry McLaurin ($5,800): Current ownership projections have the field continuing to sleep on McLaurin, who’s the clear leader in Optimal vs. Projected Ownership in SimLabs. He’s the obvious #1 option in the Commanders passing attack and leads the entire NFL in share of his team’s air yards. It’s rare to see a team’s top WR project for lower ownership than their quarterback, but that makes McLaurin an elite GPP play.
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NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Stud: Dallas Goedert ($5,100) Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5) at Tampa Bay Bucs (43 Total)
With Trey McBride out and Travis Kelce ($5,800) taking a back seat in the Chiefs offense, Goedert is emerging as one of the league’s top fantasy tight ends. At least for as long as the Eagles continue to be extremely thin at WR.
Goedert was effectively the entire Eagles passing offense once DeVonta Smith exited the game in Week 3 and finished with ten catches on 11 targets for 170 yards. He managed to be a GPP winner without catching a touchdown pass, a rarity at the tight end position.
That usage should remain high this week in a solid matchup against the Bucs. If he finds the end zone on one of his catches, the sky is the limit for his fantasy production.
Value: Tommy Tremble ($2,700) Carolina Panthers (+4.5) at Cincinnati Bengals (47.5 Total)
Nobody is going to be excited to roster Tommy Tremble, a player who I wouldn’t recognize if he was in front of me in line at the grocery store. With that said, he’s the TE1 on a suddenly functional NFL offense — with a $2,700 price tag.
Tremble has drawn seven targets in two games played this season and finished between five and six DraftKings points each time. He probably won’t win you any tournaments, but he has a reasonable floor at a near-minimum price.
The cheapest tight end with a projection better than Tremble is $800 more expensive, so if you’re looking to free up some salary for cash games, he makes sense. Tremble leads the position in Pts/Sal projection by a decent margin.
Quick Hits
Kyle Pitts ($4,800): On the one hand, it might be time to admit that Pitts isn’t that good at football:
Kyle Pitts has a 0.000 separation score against both man and zone coverage (per @fantasyptsdata) https://t.co/xericthO8K pic.twitter.com/rOr3KLUgkl
— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) September 26, 2024
On the other hand, tight end as a position has been awful this season, and the Saints are the best matchup in terms of Opponent Plus/Minus allowed to the position on the slate. Pitts has seen his targets increase every game this season, so he has a slim chance at the breakout we’ve all been waiting for.
Pat Freiermuth ($3,900): Freiermuth has one more target and four more catches than Pitts on the season but is $900 cheaper. He’s not the athlete Pitts is, but he’s been more productive this season. The Steelers tight end has a high enough salary that he probably needs a touchdown to pay it off, but his odds are as good as any sub-$5,000 tight end.
Mike Gesicki ($3,500): Gesicki is quietly the TE7 in overall scoring this season and TE6 on the slate in DraftKings PPG. Some of that could be due to injuries to Bengals pass catchers freeing up targets. However, the counterpoint is that Ja’Marr Chase ($7,700) and Tee Higgins ($5,900) drawing defensive attention will open up more space for Gesicki over the middle. He’s worth some exposure.
GPP Roster Construction
I plan on having 100% (or very close to it) exposure to the four quarterbacks mentioned above: Murray, Daniels, Dalton, and Williams.
That leaves me with a fairly tight pool of games to build around and relatively obvious stack/bring-back options in terms of pass catchers.
However, I’m casting a much wider net at running back this week, with all of the players mentioned above, as well as a handful of others mixing and matching throughout my lineups. Some of that will be dictated by the game stack they’re attached to — you need cheaper backs if playing Kyler Murray and Marvin Harrison than if you’re playing Andy Dalton and Diontae Johnson, for example.
At tight end Goedert (and possibly Kittle, if he’s healthy and AJ Brown is out) is one of the only players capable of separating. That means I want to be well over the field on him, plus my usual assortment of sprinkles on all the cheaper options.
At defense, goal #1 is to avoid the chalk, so less-popular units like Chicago ($3,100) and Cleveland ($3,500) are my favorite options, but I want to diversify as much as possible.
For more on my favorite GPP approaches, be sure to check out my SimLabs building blocks article.
Cash Games
Assuming Warren is ruled out and Harris takes over as lead back, the structure of cash games feels fairly obvious here, if not the individual players.
By that, I mean with Harris and punts at defense and tight end, we can roster the top quarterback (Daniels), the top wide receiver (Rice), and two of the top group of running back. Picking among that group is probably what separates the winners from the losers this week, with Barkley, Kamara, Williams, Hall, and Jordan Mason ($6,700) all projecting within a two-point window.
Barkley is my favorite of the group, but he’s also the most expensive, so it ultimately comes down to where the salary would be most valuable. If you have cheaper wideouts you’re comfortable playing you can splurge at the position, otherwise Mason and Williams are the better options.
I consider Diontae Johnson a near-must at receiver along with Rice, leaving one open position but not much salary to spend. I like Greg Dortch in the last spot, but there’s a handful of players you could go with.
That leaves me with Tremble at tight end, though I could see a case for rostering a cheaper back if it gets you to Goedert. Defense, as always, remains a crap shoot. Atlanta leads our Pts/Sal projection by a fairly wide margin, but plug in whichever unit you have salary for and hope for the best.
