Nailing the running back spots is essential for constructing a solid DFS lineup. It’s a bit easier to project than the receivers, where touchdowns and big plays are going to result in weekly variance. The workloads for the top running backs are much more stable, so they’re typically more consistent fantasy producers.
However, that also results in some of the heaviest chalk you’ll see across the industry. How do you handle those players each week?
In this piece, I highlight running backs who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
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Jordan Mason ($6,700 DraftKings, $8,800 FanDuel)
Another week, another opportunity for Mason to claim the top spot at running back on DraftKings. He remains a steal at just $6,700, resulting in a 99% Bargain Rating, and he leads the position in projected Plus/Minus.
With Christian McCaffrey out of the lineup, Mason has served as the team’s clear feature back. He’s played on 80% of the team’s snaps, and he’s handled 80% of the team’s rushing opportunities. That includes all of the short-yardage work. He’s had at least 19 carries in all three games, and he’s averaged more than 100 rushing yards per contest with two total touchdowns.
Mason is in a potential smash spot Sunday vs. the Patriots. The 49ers are currently listed as 10.5-point favorites, which has historically led to big production for running backs. Running backs with comparable price tags have averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.61 when favored by more than a touchdown (per the Trends tool).
The only thing that Mason hasn’t done this season is catch passes, but that really hasn’t hurt him too much: he’s still averaging 18.8 DraftKings points per game. He should be looking at a sizable workload on the ground, making him a tough fade in cash games for the third straight week.
Kyren Williams ($7,300 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel)
On FanDuel, Williams gets the nod for the top spot at the position. He’s not quite as good of a value as Mason is on DraftKings, but he leads the position in projected Plus/Minus. His 12 Pro Trends are also tied for the most at the position.
On paper, the Bears aren’t a great matchup. They were an excellent defensive team last season, and they’re ninth in rush defense EPA through the first three weeks. However, the matchup is a bit friendlier for fantasy purposes. The Bears have trailed a lot through the first three weeks, giving RBs the opportunity to rack up fantasy points. Jonathan Taylor had 110 yards and two scores against Chicago in Week 3, while Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears combined for seven catches, one touchdown, and more than 100 yards against them in Week 1. Overall, the Bears have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to the position this season.
The bigger factor working in Williams’ favor is the Rams’ injury report. They’re still without Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, which opens up a lot of opportunities.
Williams was the primary beneficiary of their absence last week, finishing with 24 carries and two targets vs. the 49ers. He also scored three times in that contest, and he’s found the paint in all three games this season.
Ultimately, Williams has picked up right where he left off last season. He’s the No. 3 RB in PPR scoring per game, yet he’s priced significantly cheaper than the other top backs on FanDuel. He’s just the seventh-most expensive back on the FanDuel main slate, making him an excellent option in all formats.
Aaron Jones ($6,400 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel)
For years, fantasy players were forced to endure Jones losing touches to A.J. Dillon. The Packers were obsessed with giving Dillon a good chunk of carries each week, even though Jones was the far superior back. He’s averaged more than five yards per carry for his career, yet the weeks where he was able to touch the ball 15+ times were few and far between.
Jones is now nearly 30 years old, but he remains as explosive as ever. He’s averaged 5.4 yards per attempt in his first season with the Vikings, and thankfully, they seem a lot more committed to getting him the football.
Jones is coming off a monster workload last week, racking up 19 carries and six targets in a comfortable win over the Texans. It was his second straight game with six targets, while his 19 carries was a new season-high. The Vikings did run the ball more than usual in that contest – thanks largely to building a big lead – but Jones saw 68% of the team’s rushes. If he can continue to see that kind of share moving forward, he has the potential for a huge year.
Jones will have the opportunity to get his revenge on the Packers this week. They opted for Josh Jacobs instead of him in free agency, and while I tend to think “revenge games” are silly, there could be some legit motivation here. The Packers wasted a good part of his prime, and this is a chance for him to show them that they made a mistake.
Now available: our NFL DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
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Alvin Kamara ($7,600 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel)
Kamara looked like a shell of himself last season, but he’s back to his old ways so far in 2024. He leads the league in both scrimmage yards (417) and touchdowns (five), and he trails only Saquon Barkley in fantasy points per game.
Kamara’s workload remains extremely valuable for fantasy purposes. He’s capable of doing damage in a multitude of ways. He can rush for 100+ yards. He can score multiple touchdowns. He can rip off five catches. Ultimately, he excels at doing all the things that running backs need to do to put up big performances.
Kamara draws a matchup vs. a Falcons defense that has been underwhelming to start the year. They’re 20th in EPA per play defensively, and they’ve been below average against the run and the pass.
Kamara checks in with the top ceiling projection at the position in our NFL Models, yet he’s projected for less than 10% ownership on DraftKings. That’s an extremely tantalizing combination.
Breece Hall ($7,800 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel)
Hall is not going to catch anyone off guard on FanDuel. At just $8,000, he represents one of the biggest discounts of the entire week. He was priced at $8,500 for each of his past two contests, and despite posting a positive Plus/Minus in both, his salary has decreased by -$500 for his matchup vs. the Broncos.
That doesn’t make much sense. Hall has been extremely productive this season, particularly as a pass-catcher. He’s racked up at least five targets in all three games, and he’s averaged 5.3 receptions and 40 receiving yards per game. Add in 56.7 rushing yards and three total touchdowns, and Hall is the No. 5 running back in PPR scoring.
Hall will take the field as a favorite vs. the Broncos, which is a role he hasn’t had a ton of experience with. However, he’s absolutely smashed in those opportunities. He’s averaged 19.13 FanDuel points in six previous occasions, good for an average Plus/Minus of +5.92.
Hall has lost a bit of work to Braelon Allen over the past two weeks, but he’s retained most of the vital pass-catching and goal-line duties. Even if he doesn’t get to 20+ carries most weeks, he’s still going to be an elite fantasy running back.
Chuba Hubbard ($5,700 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel)
The Panthers offense sprang to life last week with Andy Dalton under center, racking up 36 points vs. the Raiders. Dalton threw for 300+ yards and three touchdowns, but he also breathed life into their running game. Hubbard erupted for his first 100-yard game of the season while he added five catches, 55 yards, and a touchdown through the air.
Hubbard started the year splitting work with Miles Sanders, but he continues to carve out a larger workload each week. It’s hard to argue against that. Hubbard has averaged 5.2 yards per attempt, while Sanders has managed a paltry 3.1. With that in mind, I would expect Hubbard’s carry share to continue to increase, at least until Jonathon Brooks eventually enters the rotation.
Hubbard draws a phenomenal matchup this week vs. the Bengals, who have been unable to stop a nosebleed in 2024. They’re 31st in rush defense EPA, and they were the worst run defense in football over the past two years with D.J. Reader off the field. With Reader now in Detroit, expect the Bengals to continue to hemorrhage fantasy points to opposing running backs.
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Najee Harris ($5,600 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel)
Harris has long been an inefficient running back. He put together a strong fantasy season as a rookie, but he did it through sheer volume: he led the league with 381 touches. Since then, his workload has steadily declined each season, culminating with just 284 touches last year.
However, Harris’ primary competition in the backfield has been Jaylen Warren, who seems unlikely to suit up vs. the Colts. He exited last week’s game with a knee injury, and he’s been unable to return to practice this week.
With Warren limited to just three carries in Week 3, Harris responded with 23 opportunities vs. the Chargers. He could be looking at that type of workload once again in Week 4, which makes him an appealing option at a reasonable salary across the industry.
Cam Akers ($5,300 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel)
Akers drew the start at RB for the Texans in Week 3, and he finished with 9.9 DraftKings points vs. the Vikings. He wasn’t very productive – he managed just nine carries and three targets – but he was able to salvage his day with the team’s lone touchdown.
That said, Akers was basically taken out of the equation by the scoreline. The Texans trailed throughout, so they simply didn’t have a lot of opportunities to lean on their run game. When they did hand it off, Akers had 82% of the team’s rushing attempts.
That could spell success in Week 4. The Texans are favored by nearly a touchdown vs. the Jaguars, so it should be a much friendlier game script. With Joe Mixon and Dameon Pierce both expected to sit again, it’s an elite bounce-back spot.
James Conner ($6,500 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel)
Conner finally came crashing back to reality in Week 3. He managed just nine caries and one reception in a game where the Cardinals had minimal opportunities. The Lions ran the ball 43 times for 187 yards, leaving the Cardinals with just 23.2 minutes of possession.
Conner had at least 19.3 DraftKings points in his first two outings, so he’s an excellent buy-low candidate vs. the Commanders. This game has the highest total of the week at 50.5 points, and the Cardinals are 3.5-point home favorites. Their 27-point implied team total is the top mark on the slate, and the Commanders have been the worst defense in the league in terms of EPA per play.
Conner almost never garners as much ownership as he should, and he checks in with positive leverage in SimLabs once again in this matchup. The passing attacks should be a lot more popular in this contest, which makes pivoting to the run games an interesting option.
Brian Robinson ($6,100 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel)
On the other side of that matchup, Robinson is one of my personal favorite targets of the week. The Cardinals defense hasn’t been quite as bad as the Commanders’, but we just saw them get torn to shred by the Lions ground game. While Detroit can certainly run the football, they’ve got nothing on the Commanders. With Jayden Daniels at the helm, the Commanders have been the No. 3 rushing team in football in terms of EPA, No. 5 in yards per game, and No. 11 in yards per carry.
Robinson doesn’t bring much to the table as a pass catcher, but he’s taken on the majority of the team’s rushing attempts in their backfield. He played on a season-high 75% of the team’s snaps last week, and he handled 61% of the carries. Austin Ekeler had just 12% of the rushing attempts, so he was well behind Robinson.
Robinson also stands out as the team’s preferred option around the goal line, handling 100% of the short-yardage snaps. He’s a threat for multiple scores and 100+ yards in this matchup.
