Since we have two games on Monday, DraftKings is offering a two-game MNF slate including some big prize pools. There are a lot fewer players to choose from, of course, but we’ll still break down the top plays from both a GPP and cash game standpoint.
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the DFS slate.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Stud: Josh Allen ($7,800) Buffalo Bills (-5.5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (45.5 Total)
This one isn’t much of a debate, with the Bills do-everything quarterback leading all projection systems by a wide margin. Of course, his salary is a cut above the field as well. The other three quarterbacks on the slate range between $5,700 and $6,300 on DraftKings, with Allen a full $1,500 clear of anyone else.
Thus, the question becomes whether Allen can do enough to justify his price tag. His odds are helped by how loose salary is on the slate — there are only two other players with salaries above $7,000. Ultimately, it probably comes down to whether the visiting Jaguars can keep pace.
In Buffalo’s competitive Week 1 win against the Cardinals, Allen attempted 23 passes and ran the ball nine times. In the easy Week 2 win against the Dolphins, he carried it just twice while throwing it only 19 times.
Therefore, if playing Allen, it’s a must that you include multiple Jaguars bring-backs. There are very few scenarios where Allen finishes as the top QB without any strong scores from Jacksonville, so build accordingly.
Value: Joe Burrow ($6,300) Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5) vs. Washington Commanders
It’s close between Burrow and his counterpart Jayden Daniels ($6,000), both of who are projecting as solid values. Burrow edges him out in Pts/Sal in our models, though, and the $300 price difference is fairly inconsequential on this slate.
While Burrow is averaging just over 13 DraftKings points this season, there’s plenty of room for optimism. The biggest reason is the matchup. Burrow has faced back-to-back tough pass defenses in the Patriots and Chiefs, while Washington ranked 32nd in DVOA against the pass last season. Lest you think they shored up that weakness in the offseason, they also rank 32nd through the first two weeks.
The other factor for Burrow is the return of Tee Higgins ($5,900) for the Bengals. With Higgins sidelined, opposing defenses have been able to key in on Ja’Marr Chase ($7,500) and force Burrow into short throws. That won’t be the case this week –though even if Washington did lock in on Chase, it might not matter.
Quick Hits
Jayden Daniels ($6,000): Daniels’ rushing upside keeps him in the conversation in nearly any slate. Obviously, he’s worth considering with just four quarterbacks to choose from. He’s produced 25 DraftKings points with his legs through two games, giving him a healthy 21-point overall average. That’s despite not throwing a touchdown yet this season, which is sure to change soon. He’s an excellent GPP pivot since Burrow and Allen are projecting to combine for more than 70% ownership.
Trevor Lawrence ($5,700): Lawrence is both the cheapest and the least popular quarterback on Monday’s slate, which is the biggest selling point for him. I’m not especially interested myself since it’s hard to see a scenario where the Jaguars keep pace, but Allen doesn’t post the far better score. Since Lawrence doesn’t run much, it makes more sense to roster his pass catchers to get exposure.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Stud: James Cook ($6,800) Buffalo Bills (-5.5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (45.5 Total)
Cook’s game logs this season are a near-perfect mirror of Allen’s. When Buffalo controlled the game in Week 2, he put up 28.50 DraftKings points. In a closer Week 1 contest, he was held to just 13.30.
Assuming you’re playing multiple lineups on the Monday slate, rather than try to predict the game flow here I prefer to split my exposure between Cook and Allen. Sure, they could both hit together (especially in the context of a two-game slate), but it’s not especially likely based on how the Bills use Allen.
Thus, Cook makes sense in rosters built around the Jaguars failing — or, in other words, when heavily targeting the Commanders-Bengals game. I’ll be including exactly one of Allen or Cook in all of my lineups, but it’s important to build appropriately around them.
Value: Zack Moss ($5,600) Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5) vs. Washington Commanders
What we thought would be a timeshare in Cincinnati has turned into former Bills RB Zack Moss emerging as a true lead back in the Bengals offense. Through two weeks, he has a roughly 75% snap share, though it’s led to just 26 total opportunities so far.
Of course, the Bengals are 0-2 and have spent the bulk of their time either trailing or trying to keep pace with an explosive Chiefs offense. As 7.5-point favorites this week, they should have a game script more conducive to a heavy dose of Moss.
Of course, it’s much easier to throw the ball on Washington than run it, so I’m not overly confident in his efficiency. Still, given his price point and workload, he’s the best overall running back play on the slate.
Quick Hits
Brian Robinson ($5,900): Unlike Moss, Robinson’s salary is more appropriate for his role. He’s in a close to even timeshare with Austin Ekeler ($5,400), seeing 56% of the snaps and an equal number of targets. He’s handled 29 carries to Ekeler’s 10, though. That suggests Washington uses Ekeler more in obvious passing situations as a blocker — which doesn’t score fantasy points. Therefore, playing Robinson in builds where we expect the game to stay close and/or Washington to lead makes a lot of sense.
Travis Etienne ($7,000): Etienne is the most expensive back on the slate, and he’s a bit overpriced for his likeliest role. He’s not overly involved in the passing game, with just seven targets through two weeks, and the Jaguars are road underdogs. However, backup Tank Bigsby ($5,000) is on the wrong side of questionable this week, which could leave Etienne in a workhorse role. He makes sense as a bring-back in Josh Allen lineups since early Etienne production could force the Bills to be more aggressive.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Stud: Ja’Marr Chase ($7,500) Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5) vs. Washington Commanders
Chase has been a bit of a letdown so far this season but for understandable reasons. He was holding out for a new contract for much of training camp, so he has a slow start to the season. He also dealt with an illness before Week 1.
More importantly, fellow receiver Tee Higgins ($5,900) was inactive for Weeks 1 and 2, leading to coverage being heavily shifted to Chase, as we discussed above.
This week, Higgins is back, and they’re taking on the league’s worst pass defense. Chase is a near must regardless of lineup construction, while I’d pair him with Higgins in lineups built around Burrow.
Value: Gabe Davis ($4,200) Jacksonville Jaguars (+5.5) at Buffalo Bills (45.5 Total)
Both Davis and Brian Thomas Jr. ($4,900) are undepriced for their role here. While they’ve seen just 18 targets between them (10 Davis and 8 Thomas), they’re extremely high-value looks. Both players have an aDOT of around 15.
Since we expect Jacksonville to be chasing points, it makes sense to target one or both of them on this slate. Picking between them is fairly difficult — though I’d expect the rookie Thomas to pull away as the season progresses.
For now, though, Davis has the slightly better projections. He’s a solid one-off regardless of lineup construction, while playing the two together makes sense in Josh Allen lineups.
Quick Hits
Terry McLaurin ($5,700): McLaurin has been held back by poor quarterback play so far this season, turning his 12 targets into just 39 yards. He has the speed to break free anytime he has the ball in his hands, though, and his rapport with Daniels should continue to improve. He’s not a high-confidence play, but he’s worth a look on a small slate.
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NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Stud: Dalton Kincaid ($5,300) Buffalo Bills (-5.5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (45.5 Total)
It’s not a great tight end slate, but Kincaid leads the position in median and ceiling projection by a decent margin. He’s priced a bit too high to be a “good play,” but given the loose pricing, it might not matter.
His 13.2% target share in no way justifies his price tag, but he’s the nominal TE1 for the offense with the highest total on the slate. Tight end probably comes down to whoever scores a touchdown (if anyone), so picking the highest game total to target makes sense.
Value: Brenton Strange ($2,900) Jacksonville Jaguars (+5.5) at Buffalo Bills (45.5 Total)
Trevor Lawrence likes throwing to tight ends. He fed Evan Engram a league-leading 143 targets last season, and Engram also led the position in receptions.
Engram is out for Week 3, with Brenton Strange as the next man up on the Jags depth chart. If he gets the full Evan Engram role, he’s a steal at $2,900. If he shares time with Luke Farrell ($2,500)…he’s, at worst, fairly priced.
Either guy makes sense as a bring-back for Allen lineups or as a one-off salary saver when targeting other high-priced players.
Quick Hits
Mike Gesicki ($3,600): Gesicki has a solid 13 targets through two weeks, which he’s converted into 10 catches and 109 yards. That’s not bad at his price point. The good news is he has the easiest matchup of the season this week, while the bad news is Higgins’ return likely cuts into his target share. I’ll have some Gesicki, but he won’t be a priority.
GPP Roster Construction
I’ve alluded to my GPP construction thoughts throughout this article, but I’ll dive a bit deeper here. The key to a small slate like this is to “tell a story” with your lineups and think about what else is likely to happen based on the “bets” you make on an individual player.
Fading a player is also a “bet” on them to fail (relative to their salary), so who benefits if that happens? What does a game look like where Josh Allen isn’t the highest-scoring quarterback? (For example.)
Beyond that, if playing the massive GPPs, avoiding duplicate lineups to whatever extent possible is crucial. It’s even more important on two-game slates than Showdowns since the lack of positional flexibility and larger rosters make for less possible lineup builds.
Leaving a chunk of salary on the table is one way to do so, but be mindful of ownership in general. A slightly lower chance of taking down a GPP by yourself is worth way more than a higher chance of sharing it ten ways — so don’t be afraid to give up some projection in order to be contrarian.
