Sunday Night Football features one of the more intriguing matchups of NFL Week 3. The defending champs will take their 2-0 record on the road to square off with the Falcons. Atlanta entered the year with big expectations, but they have not really lived up to them to start the year. They dropped their first game of the year vs. the Steelers, but they managed to steal a victory on their final drive in Week 2.
The Chiefs are listed as three-point road favorites in this matchup, while the total sits at 46.5
Can the Chiefs continue to roll towards another championship run, or will the Falcons put up a fight? Let’s dive in.
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Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
Bijan Robinson was a top-10 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, but he was a slight disappointment as a rookie. He racked up fewer than 1,000 rushing yards despite playing all 17 games, and the rushing attack was less successful with Robinson on the field than off. That’s not exactly what you’re looking for.
However, Robinson has looked significantly better to start his sophomore season. He’s averaged 5.2 yards per carry through his first two games, including a massive 6.9 last week vs. the Eagles. He’s also been highly involved as a pass catcher, racking up 10 total targets.
Overall, Robinson’s utilization numbers are very close to elite: 82% snap share, 65% carry share, 21% target share. He’s also run a route on 76% of his team’s dropbacks, which is the top mark in the league at the running back position.
Robinson draws an extremely favorable matchup Sunday vs. the Chiefs. They’ve been gouged by the run for most of the past half-decade, and they were 28th in rush defense EPA last season. They’ve shown zero improvement in that department this year, ranking 29th in rush defense EPA through the first two weeks.
The Chiefs don’t grade out quite as poorly in terms of fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs, but that’s largely due to game script. With the Chiefs’ offense routinely giving them the lead, opposing offenses can’t run the ball for the full four quarters.
That’s where Robinson’s pass-catching skills should come into play. It makes him immune to bad game scripts. If the Falcons are competitive, he can handle his usual workload of carries. If they’re not, he’ll make up for it with receiving work. He’s scored at least 16.1 DraftKings points in back-to-back games this season despite failing to find the end zone. If he can get in the paint vs. the Chiefs, he has the potential for a huge game.
Patrick Mahomes is the other stud option in this game, and he stands out as the clear top choice in our NFL Models. He leads all players in median projection, and his ceiling projection clears the field by more than five full points. That makes him an elite value on DraftKings, where he’s just the second-most-expensive player.
That said, Mahomes has yet to have a truly huge game this season. He’s been at 16.14 DraftKings points or fewer in back-to-back weeks, resulting in a negative Plus/Minus in both outings. He’s also thrown three interceptions through his first two contests, resulting in a career-worst 5.7% interception rate.
From a matchup standpoint, the Falcons stand out as neutral. They have a talented secondary, but their pass rush was among the worst in football last season. Add those together, and the Falcons are 19th in pass defense EPA so far this season. Overall, Mahomes’ Opponent Plus/Minus of +0.9 is the second-best mark on the slate.
The bigger factor working in Mahomes’ favor is the team’s injury situation. Isiah Pacheco is going to miss an extended period with an injury, while Clyde Edwards-Helaire is currently on IR. That leaves the team with a really weak group at running back.
The response could be to have Mahomes drop back more vs. the Falcons. His passing volume has been underwhelming through the first two weeks, averaging just 26.5 attempts per game. If the Chiefs can get that figure into the low-to-mid 30s, Mahomes should produce his best fantasy performance of the season.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Midrange Picks
Despite Mahomes’ pedestrian start to the year, Rashee Rice has established himself as a stud fantasy receiver. He’s scored at least 17.3 PPR points in back-to-back weeks, resulting in a top-14 finish at the position.
Rice has emerged as the team’s clear-cut No. 1 pass catcher. He has 30% of the team’s targets in 2024, and he’s racked up a healthy 37% of the team’s air yards. Rice has at least 100 yards or a touchdown in both games this season, and he accomplished that feat in four of his final six regular-season games last year, too.
It seems the Kirk Cousins obituaries were written a bit too soon. After a dreadful performance in Week 1 vs. the Steelers, Cousins bounced back in a big way vs. the Eagles. He completed 20 of 29 passes for 241 yards a two touchdowns, resulting in 17.54 DraftKings points. He provides absolutely nothing with his legs, but he can still punish defenses with his arm in the right matchups.
Unfortunately, the Chiefs are not the right matchup. Their defense has historically been awful against the run, but they’ve been elite against the pass. They were fourth in pass defense EPA last season, though they did lose top corner L’Jarius Sneed to free agency. They’re down to 17th in pass defense EPA through the first two weeks, but they’re still much tougher to throw on than run on.
The good news for Cousins is this game will take place at home. He’s historically been better in that split, averaging nearly an additional 1.25 DraftKings points at home (per the Trends tool).
Drake London is the Falcons’ top receiver, and he was a massive breakout candidate in his third professional season. He has the talent of a top NFL receiver — he was selected eighth overall in the 2022 NFL Draft — but he has been sabotaged by poor quarterback play for his entire career. With Cousins under center, London was finally expected to reach his lofty ceiling.
Things haven’t quite worked out that way so far this season. He did manage to find the end zone in Week 2, but his underlying utilization is disappointing. He’s received just 21% of the Falcons’ targets and just 22% of the team’s air yards.
His numbers did take a step forward last week, but he has a long way to go to justify his lofty salary.
Is it time to buy low on Travis Kelce? His salary has dipped to $8,200 on DraftKings after starting the year at $9,600. Of course, his salary didn’t dip for no reason. He’s garnered just seven total targets to start the year, and he’s responded with just four catches for 39 yards. He’s yet to crack 6.4 DraftKings points in a game, and at nearly 35 years old, it’s fair to wonder if his best days are behind him.
Still, Kelce has seen a red-zone look in back-to-back weeks, and his chemistry with Mahomes is undeniable. He’s far from a must-play at this point, but it should surprise no one if he posts his best game of the season. The Falcons were also a strong matchup for TEs last season, allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per game to the position.
Xavier Worthy rounds out the Chiefs’ aerial attack, and he brings game-changing speed to the table. He scored two touchdowns in his first game as a professional, including one of his very first touch.
Big plays are going to be a part of his skill set, but he looks poised for a boom-or-bust role in Year 1. His underlying utilization numbers are weak: 73% route participation, 14% target share, 25% air yards share. He’s a far better play on FanDuel, where his $9,500 salary comes with a slate-high 90% Bargain Rating.
Is Kyle Pitts ever going to be a thing? It’s starting to look like no. He entered the league as the most-hyped TE prospect in history, combining elite size, athleticism, and college production. Unfortunately, that’s yet to result in much tangible production.
Pitts did snag a touchdown in Week 1, but he’s seen just seven total targets through the first two weeks. He has just a 13% target share and a 10% air yards share over that time frame, both of which are extremely disappointing. That could change moving forward, but it’s getting harder and harder to click this guy’s name on a weekly basis.
Carson Steele is the presumptive starter in the Chiefs’ backfield following the injury to Pacheco. He dominated the carries after Pacheco left last week, finishing with 24 yards on seven carries.
Still, it’s hard to imagine a massive role for Steele vs. the Falcons. He was an undrafted rookie free agent, and the team still has other bodies available in the rotation. Specifically, Samaje Perine should steal away most of the receiving work. Steele could punch in a touchdown, but that seems like the only path for him to pay off his current salary.
There’s not much separating London and Darnell Mooney from a utilization perspective. Both players have been on the field for almost 100% of the team’s passing plays, and Mooney has the same number of targets.
The big difference is that Mooney has done more work down the field. His average depth of target (aDOT) is more than double that of London (16.0 vs. 7.9), giving him a significant edge in air yards. Mooney was able to cash in one of those long targets for a touchdown vs. the Eagles, and he has plenty of upside at his current price tag.
Perine has basically been a non-factor through the first two weeks, playing on just 12% of the team’s snaps. However, Steele has played on almost none of the “pass-catching” snaps. Pacheco handled most of those while healthy, and now that he’s out, Perine should step into that void. That gives Perine a smidge of value, especially if you think the Chiefs could trail in this contest. He’s a very interesting option to pair in lineups with a lot of Falcons.
Tyler Allgeier rounds out this price range, but he’s not really playable at this salary. While he was a solid part of the team’s rushing attack last year, Robinson has taken over as the clear bellcow through the first two weeks. He’s not getting any of the short-yardage or passing-game work, so it’s tough to see a scenario where he provides value, barring an injury to Robinson.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play in the single-game format. The Chiefs defense stands out as the most “undervalued” flex play using SimLabs, while the Falcons defense isn’t far behind.
- Ray-Ray McCloud ($3,600 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) – McCloud is actually the leader in targets for the Falcons through the first two weeks. He was also on the field for 100% of the team’s pass plays in Week 2, making him significantly underpriced vs. the Chiefs.
- Justin Watson ($2,800 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) – Watson has operated as the Chiefs’ clear No. 3 receiver, running a route on 54% of the team’s pass plays. That’s yet to result in much production, but anyone with that many opportunities to catch passes from Mahomes is worth considering.
- Noah Gray ($2,600 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) – Gray has a solid 41% route participation this season, and he was at 50% in Week 2. He has two touchdowns in each of the past two years, so he’s likely to find the paint at least once in 2024.
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