Nailing the running back spots is essential for constructing a solid DFS lineup. It’s a bit easier to project than the receivers, where touchdowns and big plays are going to result in weekly variance. The workloads for the top running backs are much more stable, so they’re typically more consistent fantasy producers.
However, that also results in some of the heaviest chalk you’ll see across the industry. How do you handle those players each week?
In this piece, I highlight running backs who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
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Jordan Mason ($6,200 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel)
For the second straight week, Mason leads the way at the RB position. He’s seen a pretty significant price increase on FanDuel, but he still leads all options in terms of projected Plus/Minus. The gap is even larger on DraftKings, where his $6,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%.
With Christian McCaffrey sidelined, Mason has operated as the 49ers’ feature back. He’s played on 81% of the snaps in each of the first two weeks, and he’s handled 84% of the team’s carries. That includes 91% of the rushing attempts in Week 2 vs. the Vikings.
Mason has handled that workload with aplomb, averaging 5.1 yards per attempt with two touchdowns. He’s had at least 100 rushing yards in both contests, and he’s scored at least 20.4 DraftKings points in each. For the year, he’s the No. 7 running back in PPR formats; not bad for someone who likely went undrafted in a lot of leagues this summer.
Mason has the potential to absolutely feast against the Rams in Week 3. Their defense has been one of the worst in football through two weeks, ranking 30th in rush defense EPA. The 49ers are also favored by nearly a touchdown, so it’s an elite combination of opportunity, matchup, and potential game script. There’s no reason to overthink this one.
Alvin Kamara ($7,500 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel)
The Saints offense has been an absolute juggernaut through two games. They’ve racked up 91 points, and they’re No. 3 in yardage. They’ve ripped off numerous big plays against the Cowboys and Panthers, with Kamara doing most of the damage in Week 2. He scored four touchdowns, including a 57-yard touchdown catch.
The big question is – can the Saints keep it going? That remains to be seen, but their offense is set up for success once again in Week 3. The Eagles have been a disaster defensively since the middle of last season, and they’ve shown zero improvement in 2024. They’re 29th in defensive EPA through the first two weeks, and they’re 31st specifically against the run.
Kamara isn’t a true bell-cow back, garnering just 55% of the team’s rushing attempts through the first two weeks. However, that number is likely deflated by back-to-back blowouts. He could see a larger share of the total rushing work if this week’s game is more competitive.
Kamara also supplements his rushing workload with his elite pass-catching prowess. He’s been targeted on at least 30% of his routes in back-to-back games, and his 33% targets per route run (TPRR) mark is easily the best among full-time running backs. He’s underpriced across the industry, particularly in another great matchup.
Zach Charbonnet ($6,000 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel)
Kenneth Walker is expected to miss his second straight game, which opens the door for Charbonnet. He wasn’t overly impressive last week – he finished with 38 yards on 14 carries – but he managed to salvage his day with a touchdown.
However, his underlying metrics were outstanding. He was on the field for 95% of the Seahawks’ offensive snaps, which is an absolutely elite figure. Saquon Barkley currently leads the league in snap share at running back, and he’s at just 86%.
Charbonnet also did solid work in the passing game. He had five targets, and he managed to secure all of them. Ultimately, Charbonnet is one of the few backs in football who can claim nearly all of the pass-catching and goal-line work at the moment, which is an extremely appealing combination.
The Dolphins have been far better against the run than the pass this season, making this a slightly tougher matchup for Charbonnet. Still, they’re without their starting quarterback, so it could set up a favorable game script.
Now available: our NFL DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
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De’Von Achane ($7,000 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel)
The Dolphins’ backfield is a huge question mark at the moment. Raheem Mostert has been limited at practice after missing Week 2, and the most recent reports are pessimistic about his chances of suiting up vs. the Seahawks. If he’s out once again, the coast would be clear for Achane to assume another massive workload.
Without Mostert in Week 2, Achane handled 70% of the team’s rushing attempts and was targetted on 33% of his routes run. He was on the field for just 63% of the team’s snaps, but that number was impacted by the team being blown out: just five of his 29 opportunities last week came in the fourth quarter.
If the Dolphins had Tua Tagovailoa under center in this matchup, Achane would be a slam-dunk, no-doubt smash play. He’s an elite talent, and despite dealing with an injury of his own, the Dolphins ran him into the ground last week.
But with Tua sidelined, there are some questions about how efficient this Dolphins offense will be. They’re 4.5-point road underdogs vs. the Seahawks, and their 18.5-point total is the sixth-lowest on the main slate.
Still, Achane is too talented to ignore. He has the second-highest DraftKings optimal rate in SimLabs, and he’s No. 1 on FanDuel. The sky is the limit.
Rachaad White ($6,100 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel)
White is another one of the many running backs currently dealing with an injury. He injured his groin in Week 2, but he’s been able to get in two limited practices on Wednesday and Thursday. That at least puts him on track to be on the field on Sunday.
White has pretty much performed like he always has to start the year. He’s left a lot to be desired as a runner, averaging just 2.0 yards per carry, but he’s made up for it with his work as a pass-catcher. He had six catches for 75 yards in Week 1, giving him 13.5 PPR points before factoring in any of his rushing statistics.
The Buccaneers offense has looked fantastic through the first two weeks, and they’ll take the field as sizable favorites vs. the Broncos. White has only been a favorite of greater than a field goal three times since the start of last season, but he’s averaged 16.5 DraftKings points and a +2.94 Plus/Minus in that split (per the Trends tool).
As long as White is healthy enough to suit up, he has plenty of upside for tournaments. He’s popping with the third-highest optimal rate at the position on DraftKings and fourth-highest on FanDuel.
Josh Jacobs ($6,700 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel)
The Packers managed to survive in their first game without Jordan Love, mainly due to their defense and run game. They rattled off 261 yards on the ground, with Jacobs doing most of the damage. He finished with 151 yards, though he’s still looking for his first score of the season.
His overall rushing share of 65% doesn’t jump off the page, but that’s due mostly to Malik Willis siphoning off six carries at QB. No other running back was remotely close to Jacobs’ output; he had 32 carries, while the next closest running back was MarShawn Lloyd at six.
There’s a chance that Love returns to the lineup this week, but it would be a remarkably quick turnaround on what was believed to be a four-week injury. The most likely scenario is another start for Willis, which would result in another huge workload for Jacobs. The Titans do have a sneaky-good defense – they’re No. 1 in yards allowed through the first two weeks – but the Jets’ running backs combined for three touchdowns against them last week.
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Tony Pollard ($6,000 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel)
If not for all the other injuries at the position, Pollard would be garnering a lot more attention on this slate. As things stand currently, he’s projected for single-digit ownership across the industry.
Pollard has been the 1A in a committee backfield through the first two weeks, but that should change with Tyjae Spears now sidelined. Pollard has already provided solid fantasy production with Spears, scoring 18.4 and 15.2 DraftKings points in the first two weeks, and he could easily see 20+ opportunities vs. the Packers.
Pollard’s work as a pass catcher has been particularly useful for fantasy players. He’s been targetted on 29% of his routes this season: only Kamara and Achane (30%) have a better mark among RBs with at least a 50% snap share. If Pollard can maintain that level of involvement with an increase in snaps, he has the potential for a big outing.
D’Andre Swift ($5,600 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel)
The Bears offense has been a mess through the first two weeks, with Caleb Williams struggling to adjust to the NFL level. Swift has yet to score more than 8.2 DraftKings points, though he did show some positive signs in Week 2.
For starters, his role in the backfield took a sizable jump. He handled 74% of the team’s rushing attempts after being at just 50% in Week 1. He was also more involved as a pass catcher out of the backfield, racking up four catches on five targets.
The Bears still have to prove that they can move the ball consistently, but they’ll have their best matchup of the early season vs. the Colts. They were obliterated by the Packers’ run game in Week 2, so expect the Bears to try a similar strategy in Week 3.
James Conner ($6,600 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel)
Conner is the Honda Civic of fantasy running backs. No one is ever excited to get behind the wheel, but Conner is going to get you where you need to go. He’s had 19.3 and 22.4 DraftKings points in his first two outings, and he’s found the paint in both.
The Cardinals are expected to play in a lot of high-scoring games this season, and this week’s showdown with the Lions is no exception. That game leads the slate with a 51.5-point total, with the Lions listed as three-point road favorites. Overall, it’s a game where both offenses should be expected to provide some value.
Conner stands out specifically on DraftKings, where his salary comes with an 80% Bargain Rating. However, he’s projected for just 2.5% ownership, making him a sneaky way to get exposure to the best game of the week.
Rico Dowdle ($4,800 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel)
This has less to do with Dowdle himself and more to do with lineup construction. Very few DFS players are going to be playing a sub-$5k running back this week. If there are a bunch of high-scoring, expensive options at other positions, you don’t even necessarily need a bunch of production from Dowdle to find yourself near the top of the leaderboard.
Dowdle’s role has remained consistent through the first two weeks, handling approximately 35% of the team’s carries in both contests. That includes the majority of the short-yardage work, although Ezekiel Elliott did get the team’s lone carry from inside the five-yard line.
If Dowdle can add the goal line carries to his resume, it’s enough to put him in the conversation for fantasy purposes.
