Week 3 delivers a 12-game main slate on DraftKings, and below, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools to find some of the best NFL DFS leverage targets for Week 3.
Specifically, I will be focusing on players’ ownership projections and Leverage Scores within our FantasyLabs Models to identify these contrarian targets. Leverage Scores are a combination of a player’s projected ceiling and ownership. In other words, a high ceiling combined with a low ownership projection means a high leverage score.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups for single-entry or 3-entry max tournaments and our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments. Our optimizer allows you to create up to 300 lineups with the click of a button.
The Lineup Optimizer has endless customization opportunities.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS High-Leverage Stack
Dak Prescott ($6,600) + CeeDee Lamb ($8,800) + Zay Flowers ($6,800)
Prescott has been quiet thus far, but this has been a product of two poor matchups vs. the Browns and the Saints, who are both top-10 defenses in PFF grade and least yards per pass allowed this season. On the menu for this Sunday is a perfect get right spot for Prescott, hosting a Ravens defense that has become a pass funnel. So far this season, Baltimore is allowing the fourth-most yards per pass (7.8) and the least yards per rush (2.7). Attacking the Ravens through the air is going to be the Cowboys’ game plan this week, and Prescott and Lamb should flourish on their home turf.
Prescott has notably been 6.5 DraftKings PPG better at home over the last three seasons, for an average of 23.1 DraftKings PPG, and this game’s total is the second highest on the slate (48 points). For the last five occasions, Prescott has competed at home, and in a total of at least 48 points, he has topped 30 DraftKings points three times. In our models, Prescott’s projected ownership is around 1%, and his leverage score is the highest on the slate among quarterbacks.
As for Lamb, he has remained Prescott’s clear No.1 option this season, leading Dallas with a 23.6% target share. Lamb has seen one red-zone target, three targets over 20 yards, and he ranks 12th in air yards (202). Before opening this season with two tough matchups, Lamb had tallied at least 23.5 DraftKings points in four consecutive games. According to our projections, Lamb is only slated to be around 7% owned on DraftKings.
Given this game’s high total, rostering a Raven in the same lineup as Prescott and Lamb as a game stack has a ton of merit, and Flowers is without question the top choice from Baltimore. In his second year, Flowers has become the Ravens’ clear No. 1 wideout, leading the team with a 29.6% target share and three red-zone targets, both of which rank 10th in the NFL. Flowers has exceeded 20 DraftKings points in seven of his last 10 games, and he shouldn’t disappoint in this elite setting. Just like Prescott and Lamb, Flowers is expected to get overlooked this Sunday, with our projections forecasting him to be only around 5% on DraftKings.
NFL DFS Running Back Leverage Pick
James Conner ($6,600)
With Jordan Mason, De’Von Achane, and Zach Charbonnet soaking up all the ownership at running back this week, Conner is expected to be massively slept on. Our projections are slating the veteran to be only around 2% owned on DraftKings, and he is a tremendous contrarian option that needs to be rostered. This season, Conner has remained a workhorse for the Cardinals. Among running backs, the veteran ranks seventh in carries per game (18.5), seventh in red-zone carries (8), and 17th in snap share (64.6%). Conner has also run a route on 44% of his team’s dropbacks, and he has garnered a target on 14% of those routes. Conner ranks ninth in DraftKings PPG at his position this season (19.9), and he has recorded at least 17 DraftKings points in seven straight starts.
Conner faces a tough Lions run defense this Sunday that ranks third in least yards per rush allowed (3.3), but this game should be a fast-paced and high-scoring environment, with this contest’s total being the highest on the slate (51.5 points). Conner is amassing 17.8 DraftKings PPG in totals over 45 points or greater over the last two seasons (eight games) – via the Trends Tool – and the running back is a -130 favorite on the DraftKings Sportsbook to score a touchdown this Sunday, which will be his eighth touchdown in his last eight games if he finds the paydirt. Conner is a threat for over 20 DraftKings points in this potential shootout and needs to be included in your GPP pool for Week 3.
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Leverage Pick
Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($5,400)
Smith-Njigba is expected to take a big leap in his second season for the Seahawks, and his potential was on full display this past Sunday in a subpar matchup vs. the Patriots. In the victory in New England, Smith-Njigba caught 12 of his career-high 16 targets for 117 yards, resulting in 26.7 DraftKings points. The 22-year-old has now been targeted on a team-best 26% of his routes this season while running a route on 90% of his team’s dropbacks, including three targets north of 20 yards. 84.4% of Smith-Njigba’s routes have come from the slot, which is great news for this Sunday’s matchup vs. the Dolphins, as star Miami cornerback Jalen Ramsey rarely plays in the slot – only 12% of his snaps have come from the slot this season. DK Metcalf and Ramsey should battle on the outside all day long, and naturally, Geno Smith should heavily rely on Smith-Njibga in the middle of the field. Under new HC Mike Macdonald, the Seahawks have been a pass-heavy offense this season, ranking fourth in PROE and Miami’s coverage grade is the fourth-worst on PFF. Additionally, Seattle’s implied team total is set at a healthy 23 points.
All signs are pointing to Smith-Njigba having another monster showing this weekend and with our projections forecasting him for single-digit ownership on DraftKings, the receiver is a must-have for GPPs.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Leverage Pick
Tucker Kraft ($3,200)
Kraft took over as the Packers’ tight end during Week 12 of last season, and he has not looked back, logging at least 80% of the snaps in every game since. During this 11-game stretch, Kraft has seen a target on 16% of his routes while running a route on 82% of his team’s dropbacks, which is the highest route participation for Green Bay during this time frame. Plus, in this 11-game sample, Kraft has seen great usage in scoring territory with 11 red-zone targets. The tight end is clearly underpriced for his full-time role and for this Sunday, Kraft meets a Titans’ defense that is the third-worst graded defense on PFF. Furthermore, there is a real possibility that Jordan Love (knee) is back under center for Green Bay, with the quarterback returning to practice this week after missing last Sunday vs. the Jets.
Love’s presence would be an obvious boost for Kraft – the tight end is averaging 8.8 DraftKings PPG in the 10 starts he has made with Love – but either way, Kraft is a viable tight end target this Sunday, with the main slate severely lacking appealing cheap options at the position. To add to his appeal, Kraft is expected to come with essentially no ownership on DraftKings according to our projections.
Note: player and ownership projections may change leading up to lock. Be sure to check out the Player Models for any changes.
