We are back with, inarguably, the best main slate of the year. Week 4 signals the start of most conference schedules, amplifying the already high stakes, but there are also a handful of Top 25 matchups and intriguing non-conference affairs to choose from. Most prominently, the Utah Utes and Oklahoma State Cowboys battle it out for Big 12 supremacy while the USC Trojans take on the Michigan Wolverines at the Big House in their inaugural Big Ten contest. But that’s just a taste of what’s in store on another jam-packed Saturday schedule.
We’ve got you covered for DFS purposes, highlighting our preferred players from Saturday’s main slate.
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Let’s dive into this week’s slate!
CFB DFS Quarterback Picks
Tyler Shough (Louisville Cardinals): $7,200 DraftKings
The Louisville Cardinals’ gentle start to the 2024 season continues with Saturday’s ACC showdown versus the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets. Senior quarterback Tyler Shough has had no problems getting the Cardinals’ offense downfield, and he’ll face little resistance from the Yellow Jackets at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium.
In his first season in Louisville, Shough’s been incredibly efficient. The 24-year-old has completed 39 of 57 passes for 581 yards, six touchdowns, and zero interceptions. His 10.2 yards per pass attempt put Shough on pace for a career-best, netting him an 83.6 QBR, which is 13th-best in the country.
Moreover, the Cardinals continue to deploy a pass-heavy approach in their game-planning, ratcheting Shough’s ceiling even higher. Louisville has won its first two games by a combined 111-14 margin, recording at least 49 points in each game. Despite the onslaught, Louisville has called passing plays 49.3% of the time. That dedication to the aerial assault ensures Shough achieves the best possible fantasy score on the main slate.
Georgia Tech’s defense has been ineffective at limiting opposing quarterbacks. In Week 2, Syracuse Orange pivot Kyle McCord threw for 381 yards and four scores in a 31-28 victory. Likewise, Christian Veilleux and DJ Uiagalelei both enjoyed some level of success in the two preceding weeks.
Shough projects as our median and ceiling leader and should have no problem reaching the upper limit of his fantasy potential against the Yellow Jackets.
Taylen Green (Arkansas Razorbacks): $7,500 DraftKings
The Auburn Tigers’ glory days are behind them. The former SEC juggernauts haven’t finished with a winning season since 2020 and haven’t been to the conference championship game since 2017. More relevantly, the Tigers made New Mexico Lobos quarterback Devon Dampier look like a Heisman Trophy candidate last week, bolstering the outlook for Taylen Green in Week 4.
The junior signal-caller has had moments of brilliance in his first season with the Arkansas Razorbacks, but we expect it to all come together on Saturday. Green struggled in last week’s outing, completing 11 of 26 passes for 161 yards and an interception, setting Week 4 up as a solid bounce-back spot. In his two previous games, Green had completed 61.8% of his pass attempts for 645 passing yards and three touchdowns. Included in that was his 416-yard effort against the 16th-ranked Oklahoma State Cowboys.
Further, the Tigers’ pass defense has looked toothless to start the season. Not including Week 1’s FCS opponent, Auburn is allowing 262.0 passing yards per game, ranking 92nd out of 134 teams. Both of the quarterbacks they’ve faced have attempted at least 36 throws, underscoring their inability to defend the pass.
There are some more noteworthy quarterbacks available on the main slate, but few can compete with Green’s ceiling. We expect the modestly priced pivot to vastly exceed the implied value of his salary and end the day as one of the top fantasy performers in Week 4.
CFB DFS Running Back Picks
Cam Skattebo (Arizona State Sun Devils): $7,300 DraftKings
Rushing yards will be plentiful when the Arizona State Sun Devils take to the field against the Texas Tech Red Raiders, and both primary running backs are priced accordingly. While you wouldn’t be wrong for targeting Tahj Brooks, we’re giving the edge to Cam Skattebo in this Big 12 showdown.
First, Skattebo comes in at a lower salary than his Red Raiders counterpart, checking in $500 cheaper at $7,300. Secondly, the Sun Devils running back has a more prominent role on offense relative to Brooks. Skattebo averages more carries per game, as well as a significantly higher ceiling in the passing game. Already, the senior is up to 22.6 carries and 3.8 targets per game, above Brooks’ respective benchmarks of 22.0 and 2.0. Not surprisingly, that has yielded superior metrics, with Skattebo averaging 148.7 total yards per game to Brooks’ 138.0.
Lastly, Texas Tech has looked completely inept when it comes to defending the run, pushing us further toward Skattebo. The Washington State Cougars obliterated the Red Raiders for 301 rushing yards in Week 2, with North Texas churning out 130 last week despite facing a deficit from the outset.
If you can find a way to afford both, Skattebo and Brooks look almost equally appealing on the main slate. However, the Red Raiders’ porous defense approach, combined with Skattebo’s increased usage, should afford him all the time and space he needs to end the day as one of the top running backs.
Phil Mafah (Clemson Tigers): $6,000 DraftKings
We’re bypassing Ollie Gordon and his $9,600 salary for a more cost-effective option on Saturday’s main slate. The Clemson Tigers enter the day as one of the steepest favorites, priced at -18.5 chalk to get past the North Carolina State Wolfpack. That’s foreshadowing a run-heavy approach, helping Phil Mafah reach his full potential as an underappreciated running back.
Mafah is the undisputed leader in the Tigers backfield. The senior out-paces the next closes back by over 20 carries and has out-gained his Clemson teammate by 130 yards. Although we have yet to see Mafah maximize production in 2024, Week 4 presents as the ideal circumstance for the Georgia native.
In addition to the run-first game-planning, NC State has looked out of sorts trying to contain the run. Week 2’s showdown against the Tennessee Volunteers is the best example of that ineffective play. The Volts torched the Wolfpack for 249 yards on 44 rushing attempts, equaling 5.7 yards per carry. The Western Carolina Catamounts looked even better the week before, toting the ball 18 times for 120 rushing yards, or 6.7 yards per carry.
Through two games, Mafah is averaging the most yards per carry of his career. An increased workload against an underwhelming Wolfpack defense should facilitate the best performance of his season so far. We’re adding the Clemson running back as one of our preferred RB options in Week 4.
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CFB DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Xzavier Henderson (Cincinnati Bearcats): $6,700 DraftKings
Already coming off his second 100-yard receiving effort of the year, Xzavier Henderson is poised to replicate his early-season success against the Houston Cougars.
Henderson leads the Cincinnati Bearcats in nearly every pass-catching metric. His 23 receptions, 292 receiving yards, and 34 targets are tops by a wide margin, while his 33.0% target share is 13.0% higher than the next closest Bearcat. Moreover, Henderson has recorded no fewer than six receptions in any of his three outings, absorbing nine or more targets each time out.
The Cougars pass defense has stood up through the first three games of the season, allowing a paltry 123.7 passing yards per game, but Henderson stands up as the best receiver they’ve faced this season. Oklahoma Sooners wideout Deion Burks’ performance in Week 2 sheds a light on what to expect from Henderson on Saturday. The Sooners’ top pass-catcher hauled in nine of 12 targets against the Cougars, albeit for 53 yards.
Henderson is operating at peak efficiency right now. He’s the team leader in the passing attack and has posted a solid 67.6% catch rate so far in 2024. The senior will be targetted early and often as Cincinnati breaks down a Houston defense that has broken down in two of the first three weeks. Henderson is the wide receiver to target on Saturday’s slate.
Ja’Corey Brooks (Louisville Cardinals): $4,800 DraftKings
DFS punters get to take advantage of a solid correlated duo at a discounted rate. As discussed, Tyler Shough is one of the top quarterbacks available on Saturday. Stacking him with his preferred pass-catching option, Ja’Corey Brooks, should yield one of the most profitable entry points on Week 4’s main slate.
Brooks has been a game-changer in the Cardinals’ passing attack. The senior has totaled 172 receiving yards and a touchdown on just 13 catches, highlighting his ability to use his 6’3″ frame to his advantage and break away for yards after the catch. Like most Louisville players, we haven’t seen the best Brooks has to offer early this season, as the ACC contenders have taken on two lesser-than opponents to start the year. Still, the Cardinals should have no problem moving the ball against an inferior Yellow Jackets pass defense.
When Georgia Tech traveled to take on Syracuse in Week 2, they allowed two pass-catchers to record at least six catches, 88 yards, two touchdowns, and 26.5 fantasy points. Worse, the top three Orange receivers combined for 17-for-20 in the passing game for 248 yards.
Brooks represents the pinnacle of the Cardinals’ passing game production, and we’re expecting him to deliver with a slate-best effort against Georgia Tech.
Kyren Lacy (LSU Tigers): $8,100 DraftKings
We’re going back to Kyren Lacy well with our final pick, highlighting the LSU Tigers wide receiver as the top performer he is. He should have no problems exposing the UCLA Bruins defense in what will end up being one of the most one-sided affairs of the day.
Entering the contest as -22.5 chalk, the Tigers are primed to trounce the Bruins. As usual, Lacy will be the focal point on offense as LSU plans its attack. He leads his team in targets while tied with Mason Taylor for the most receptions and falling one yard shy of Aaron Anderson for the lead in receiving yards. But Lacy separates himself from the pack in terms of fantasy production. His five touchdowns are four more than the next closest Tiger. As such, he’s averaging 23.1 fantasy points per game while never falling below 17.3 in any contest.
UCLA has fallen on hard times. The once-proud college football titans gave up 430 yards to the Indiana Hoosiers in Week 3, with 307 yards coming through the air. That’s the low end of the spectrum of what to expect from Lacy and the Tigers on Saturday. The SEC foes should move the ball with ease, helping Lacy reach his fantasy ceiling and end the day as the premier pass catcher on the main slate.
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