The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL DFS product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling, and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings and values for this week’s slate.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the week after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Top Ceiling: Jalen Hurts at New Orleans – $7,300 on DraftKings, $8,500 on FanDuel
With Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes in primetime, Jalen Hurts takes the top spot in the ceiling projections on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Hurts edges out Lamar Jackson in Chris Raybon’s and Sean Koerner’s projections, while THE BLITZ projections give Jackson a slight edge. In an evenly-blended three-way aggregate, Hurts holds the top spot by a narrow margin and also offers just a little bit of savings compared to Jackson on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Despite the Eagles Week 2 loss, Hurts’ fantasy numbers were solid. He made up for only 183 passing yards by running for 85 yards and a touchdown in addition to his passing touchdown. His 24.8 DraftKings points were one of the best QB performances of all of Week 2.
Without A.J. Brown (hamstring) at WR and behind an inconsistent offensive line, Hurts was forced to run more. His added rushing production adds to his fantasy upside and makes him a top option this week despite his team’s disappointing Monday night loss.
He and the Eagles will be on a short week as they take on the surging Saints this Sunday. It is expected to be a high-scoring game in the Superdome with the second-highest over/under on the board, behind only the Cardinals and Lions. In their 2-0 start, the Saints have been solid against the pass, although they did allow 293 passing yards to Dak Prescott last week as the Cowboys tried to rally.
Hurts is the top ceiling play on Sunday’s slate with all that rushing potential in a matchup where he’ll need to put up big numbers to keep up with the Saints’ new-look offense.
Top Value: Sam Darnold vs. Houston Texans – $5,500 on DraftKings, $7,100 on FanDuel
After leading the Vikings to a 2-0 start, Darnold has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all Sunday’s quarterbacks in the three-way aggreate projections on DraftKings and the second-highest on FanDuel behind only Justin Fields. Darnold takes the top spot in Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings in both Raybon’s and Carty’s projections while coming in third in Koerner’s.
One huge boost to Darnold will be the expected availability of Justin Jefferson, who was forced to leave last week’s game with a quad injury. While Jordan Addison (ankle) could still be out, Darnold should have his No. 1 receiver ready to roll as the Vikings host the Texans in a battle of undefeated teams.
Last week, Darnold led the Vikings past his former team, the 49ers, by throwing for 268 yards and two touchdowns and adding 32 yards on the ground as well. He’s typically not a huge rushing threat, but he could get more chances to scramble in this offense under Coach Kevin O’Connell. Darnold also should continue to get plenty of opportunities to throw the ball since he’s averaging 25 passes per game this season.
He comes into this week as the No. 10 QB so far this season, ranking third in yards per attempt and seventh in fantasy points per dropback. Even in a tough matchup against the Texans, he deserves attention as a cheap play. He has the 15th-highest salary of starting QBs on DraftKings and the 17th-highest on FanDuel, so he should be able to outproduce his price point.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Top Ceiling: Jordan Mason at Los Angeles Rams – $6,200 on DraftKings, $8,300 on FanDuel
Mason was in my picks last week as a top value at running back, and he delivered 100 yards and a touchdown in a tough road matchup against the Vikings. Shockingly, his salary barely moved on DraftKings, where he has a 99% Bargain Rating and only the 13th-highest RB salary.
Even though he’s so cheap on DraftKings, he has the second-highest median, ceiling, and floor projections of all running backs on the main slate, behind only Alvin Kamara. He also has the top Projected Plus/Minus and Pts/Sal at the position in the three-way aggregate. On FanDuel, he’s a little more expensive but has the highest median and ceiling projection of all running backs and still the highest Projected Plus/Minus.
Mason has stepped in beautifully for the injured Christian McCaffrey. He put up 25.2 DraftKings points in Week 1 with 147 rushing yards and a touchdown against the Jets, and he followed that up with 20.4 DraftKings points in Week 2.
He should be in a much better place to produce in Week 3 since the 49ers are expected to play from ahead against the Rams, rather than from behind as they did last week in Minnesota. He could also get extra work with Deebo Samuel Sr. (calf) and George Kittle (hamstring) battling injuries. Mason only has two catches through the first two weeks on two targets, so some extra work in the passing game could take his fantasy production to an even higher level.
Top Value: Chuba Hubbard at Las Vegas Raiders – $5,200 on DraftKings, $5,800 on FanDuel
Not much has gone right for the Panthers this season, and they’re making a QB change from Bryce Young to Andy Dalton. Hubbard could get a nice boost from a more effective offense around him and end up a strong value play in Week 3. In the aggregate projections, he has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of the running backs under $6,000 on FanDuel and the fourth-highest overall on DraftKings.
With rookie Jonathan Brooks (knee) still on the NFI list for at least two more games, Hubbard should continue to dominate playing time in Carolina’s backfield. After an ugly Week 1, he had 64 rushing yards on 10 carries and added 12 receiving yards by hauling in 4-of-5 targets in Week 2. He had a solid 11.6 fantasy points, even without the help of a touchdown.
Hubbard should be in a favorable matchup against the Raiders this week, who have given up the 11th-most DraftKings points to opposing running backs this season and also let Lamar Jackson post a strong rushing game against them last week. In addition to Jackson’s 45 rushing yards, the Raiders have given up over 100 rushing yards and a touchdown to running backs in each of their first two games this season.
Since we’re not sure how much of the problem Bryce Young was, the Panthers could still struggle this week, but Hubbard could be a great value play if he builds on last week’s momentum and gets loose for some big runs in Vegas this week.
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Top Ceiling: CeeDee Lamb vs. Baltimore Ravens – $8,800 on DraftKings, $9,300 on FanDuel
If you’re playing Darnold at QB, partnering him with Justin Jefferson gives you great correlation and is a strong option. However, Lamb is a safer play with a higher ceiling overall even though he also missed practice this week with an ankle injury. Coach Mike McCarthy said the issue is “not of high concern,” though, and his Cowboys will be desperate to bounce back after a brutal home loss last week to the Saints.
Lamb brings the highest ceiling projection of all wide receivers on both DraftKings and FanDuel in the three-way aggregate and has an ownership projection under 10% on each site as well.
Lamb had five catches for 61 yards but did draw 10 targets in Week 1. In Week 2, he had only seven targets but turned them into four catches for 90 yards and a touchdown.
It’s clear that Lamb is still the go-to option in the Cowboys passing game, and he will be in a very favorable matchup against the Ravens, who have allowed the sixth-most DraftKings points in the NFL to wide receivers this season. They gave up Xavier Worthy‘s big two-touchdown game in Week 1 and were shredded by Davante Adams for 110 yards and a touchdown on nine catches last week.
This late afternoon matchup will be fascinating to watch and has the third-highest total on the slate. Lamb should get as many targets as he can handle and be ready for a signature performance.
Top Value: Brandon Aiyuk at Los Angeles Rams – $6,200 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel
As is often the case with value picks at WR, it’s all about increased opportunity. With Samuel expected to miss multiple games and Kittle also now ailing, Brandon Aiyuk will likely be asked to carry more of the work for the 49ers. As a result, he has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all WR on FanDuel and the third-highest on DraftKings behind only a pair of extremely cheap plays.
Aiyuk has had a quiet start to the year, with just two catches for 28 yards in Week 1 and four catches for 43 yards in Week 2. Part of his slow start may be due to his holdout, which sidelined him for all of training camp and the preseason before getting his contract extension in August. He’ll have to shake off that slow start this week, though, and help cover for the absence of Samuel, who had 19 targets in the first two weeks of the season and posted 110 receiving yards in Week 2.
The 49ers won’t get any injury sympathy from the Rams, though, since they’re without their top two receivers as well coming into Sunday’s matchup. The Rams’ secondary is healthy but should be a favorable matchup for Aiyuk after giving up a monster two-touchdown game to Marvin Harrison Jr. last week.
If you can afford to target Aiyuk in the midrange, he brings elite upside. However, if you need a cheaper play at WR on DraftKings, check out Elijah Moore, who I highlighted in my early Week 3 values. Rashid Shaheed and Tank Dell also offer boom-or-bust upside based on their big-play potential. On FanDuel, Diontae Johnson of the Panthers has the best Projected Plus/Minus under $6,000 with Jordan Whittington also worth a flier if he can get more involved for the Rams.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Top Ceiling: Trey McBride vs. Detroit Lions – $6,200 on DraftKings, $6,800 on FanDuel
Travis Kelce is included on the FanDuel slate in the Sunday Night Football game and has the highest projections on that site, but on Sunday afternoon, Trey McBride stands out as the top ceiling play on both sites in our aggregated projections. McBride also has the top Projected Plus/Minus at the position on FanDuel and the ninth-highest on DraftKings.
McBride has been a target magnet for the Cardinals since emerging in the middle of last season, and that trend has continued this year. He had nine targets even in a down game in Week 1, finishing with only five catches for 30 yards. Last week, while his teammate Marvin Harrison was tearing up the Rams, he also had a good game by catching all six of his targets for 67 yards.
Even though he only found the end zone on a fumble recovery in Week 2, McBride’s heavy involvement and relative health make him the top ceiling play on Sunday.
Top Value: Greg Dulcich at Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $2,900 on DraftKings, $4,500 on FanDuel
Dulcich’s final stat lines from the last two weeks have definitely not been pretty, but he does bring promising potential value this week. He has the top Projected Plus/Minus at the position on DraftKings, where he’s extremely cheap, under $3,000. On FanDuel, he has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of tight ends with salaries under $5,000.
His totals haven’t been great, with just 12 yards in Week 1 and 16 yards in Week 2. However, the reason for optimism on the third-year tight end from UCLA is that he was more heavily involved in Week 2 with a team-high eight targets. He had a pair of drops in that game, but his average depth of target (aDOT) of 7.9 yards shows the potential for more if he can convert targets into catches.
He seems to be a favorite option for rookie QB Bo Nix, and as the offense grows, he could end up being a solid option. This week, he’s a flier cheap play with upside, and he’s popping in our projections due to the potential he showcased last week.
