The quarterback position is one of the most flexible in NFL DFS. You can go in a variety of different ways. Do you pay up for one of the top studs or try to save some money with a value option? Do you eat the chalk or look for a low-owned option with upside? There’s no 100% one-size-fits-all answer, so each slate and contest type is going to require thought and consideration.
In this piece, I highlight quarterbacks who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
Top NFL DFS Cash Game Options
Patrick Mahomes ($7,000 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel)
Jalen Hurts ($7,300 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel)
Hurts was the No. 2 quarterback in fantasy leagues last season, trailing only Josh Allen, and he’s picked up basically right where he left off in 2024. He’s the QB3 for fantasy purposes through the first two weeks, while the Eagles’ offense ranks in the top six in yards and points per game.
Hurts has always provided elite fantasy value with his legs, but he’s taken things to another level this season. He’s averaged 13.0 carries through the first two weeks, which would put him on pace for a new career high. His average of 59.0 yards would also be a new high, while he found the endzone for the first time this season in Week 2. If he can continue to score the ball at a high frequency – he’s had at least 10 rushing touchdowns in three straight years – he has the potential for one of the best QB rushing seasons in fantasy history.
Hurts will take the field as an underdog in Week 3, but there are still reasons to be optimistic. For starters, the game between the Eagles and Saints has the second-highest total of the week (49.5). Hurts is also the rare quarterback who has performed better as an underdog than a favorite. He’s averaged 24.02 DraftKings points per game in that split, good for an average Plus/Minus of +2.11 (per the Trends tool).
As usual, paying up for a quarterback is a much more viable strategy on FanDuel than DraftKings. However, if you’re going to do it, Hurts stands out as the preferred option. He leads the position in median and ceiling projection, and he has the third-highest projected FanDuel Plus/Minus. His 73% Bargain Rating is also tied for the third-highest mark at the position.
Geno Smith ($5,600 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel)
Spending down at QB is typically the preferred strategy on DraftKings, and Smith stands out as the best option in Week 3. His $5,600 salary comes with a position-high 96% Bargain Rating, and he leads all passers in projected DraftKings Plus/Minus.
His matchup vs. the Dolphins doesn’t stand out as a good one on paper. They’ve allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to the position through two weeks, and Smith owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of -5.0.
That said, the Dolphins appear due for serious regression in that department. They’re 31st in pass defense EPA; opposing quarterbacks just simply haven’t thrown the ball much against them. Trevor Lawrence attempted just 21 passes vs. Miami in Week 1, and Allen threw just 19 passes in Week 2.
Smith has dropped back at an above-average frequency this season, and he attempted 44 passes against the Patriots last week. He’s responded with at least 18.84 DraftKings points in back-to-back games, and with one of the best receiver trios in football at his disposal, there’s no reason to expect much to change moving forward. He’s simply too cheap at $5,600, tying him with Caleb Williams for the 13th-priciest option on the main slate.
Now available: our NFL DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
Top NFL DFS Tournament Options
Jared Goff ($6,500 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel)
The game between the Cardinals and Lions should be a very popular target this week. The game leads the slate with a 51.5-point total, and the Lions are listed as three-point road favorites. That suggests a back-and-forth affair with plenty of potential on both sides.
The Lions lead the slate with a 27.25-point implied team total, which definitely puts Goff on the radar. He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.08 with a comparable total as a member of the Lions.
The matchup also stands out as elite. The Cardinals have allowed the third-most fantasy points to the position so far this season, and they were the fourth-friendliest matchup in 2023.
Goff is coming off a disappointing performance in Week 2, but there were still a lot of positives to take away. For starters, he threw the ball 55 times in a game where the team ran 82 plays. They also rolled up 463 yards of total offense, so the fact that they scored just 16 points is a bit fluky. They’re currently No. 2 in the league in yards per game and No. 16 in points, and that gap will likely close by the end of the season.
Kyler Murray ($6,900 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel)
Murray is on the other side of that matchup, and he’s been excellent to start the year. He was especially good in his last contest, racking up 28.54 DraftKings points while posting a perfect passer rating. It’s a good reminder of the kind of player that Murray can be when he’s at full strength.
Murray doesn’t possess quite as high of a rushing ceiling as someone like Hurts, but he’s not that far behind. He’s had five carries in both games this season, and he’s provided an eye-popping 11.6 yards per attempt. He’s likely due for a bit of regression in that department, but he could make up for it with a bit more volume: His 5.0 attempts per game is the lowest mark of his career.
Murray is also capable of doing damage with his arm. He has two excellent pass-catchers at his disposal in Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride, and he’s leaned on both heavily to start the year.
Murray draws one of the best pure matchups on the slate in Week 3. He leads the position in Opponent Plus/Minus (+2.1), while the Lions allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing QBs last season. They’re 24th in pass defense EPA through two weeks, so they don’t seem much improved in 2024.
Murray is priced in a clear tier below Hurts and Lamar Jackson, but I’m not 100% sure he deserves it at this point. Taking the slight discount makes a lot of sense.
Patrick Mahomes ($8,700 FanDuel)
Mahomes is only available on the FanDuel main slate this week, which includes the Sunday Night Football matchup between the Chiefs and Falcons. It goes without saying that Mahomes is always worthy of some DFS consideration.
He hasn’t exactly lit up the box score through the first two weeks, but the Chiefs’ passing attack has passed the eye test. They look more explosive than they have over the past few seasons, with Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy giving Mahomes a few dynamic playmakers. Travis Kelce has yet to get in on the fun, and if they can add him to their young receiver duo, this could be the best version of the Chiefs’ passing attack since the Tyreek Hill days.
That’s good news for the Chiefs, who are dealing with some key absences in their backfield. Isiah Pacheco is going to miss an extended period with a broken fibula. Clyde Edwards-Helaire is already on the non-football injury list, leaving the team with UDFA Carson Steele as the presumed starter.
Without Pacheco to lean on, Andy Reid could veer a bit heavier into the pass moving forward. The Falcons are 20th in dropback EPA through the first two weeks, so it would be hard to argue against that strategy with Mahomes under center.
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Contrarian NFL DFS Tournament Options With Upside
Sam Darnold ($5,500 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel)
I’m all aboard the Darnold hype train. The former No. 3 overall pick has found new life in Minnesota under head coach Kevin O’Connell. He’s coming off 20.92 DraftKings points in a tough win over the 49ers in Week 2, despite being without Jordan Addison and losing Justin Jefferson to an in-game injury. Even without his top pass-catchers, Darnold was still throwing dots:
Sam Darnold. 4th quarter. 3rd and 8. No Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison or TJ Hockenson on the field.
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) September 16, 2024
🎯 pic.twitter.com/czIeoIwUt0
The Texans-Vikings contest for Week 3 has a healthy 46.0-point total, and the line is moving in Minnesota’s favor. They’re down to just two-point home underdogs, so the sharps seem to believe Minnesota can win this contest.
The Texans D looked amazing against the Bears in Week 2, but they were pretty well shredded by Anthony Richardson in Week 1. If Darnold continues to thrive in the O’Connell offense, $5,500 is simply too cheap of a price tag for him.
Brock Purdy ($6,000 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel)
The 49ers offense has not looked like the same machine that it did last season, churning through opponents en route to the No. 1 mark in EPA. Of course, they haven’t had Christian McCaffrey for their first two contests, and Deebo Samuel will join him on the sidelines in Week 3.
This will arguably be the worst supporting cast of Purdy’s career, so we’ll start to get some answers about whether or not he’s just a byproduct of his environment.
The good news is that Purdy will still have Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle, which is more than most quarterbacks can say. He also draws an excellent matchup vs. the Rams, who were shredded by Murray last week. Kyle Shanahan has historically had Sean McVay’s number, so it would not be surprising to see Purdy find success in this spot. Purdy is projected for less ownership than the optimal lineups suggest he should be in SimLabs.
DeShaun Watson ($5,500 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel)
It feels truly gross to click on Watson at this point, let alone choose him for a write-up. But the numbers don’t lie, and SimLabs likes Watson as a contrarian tournament option in Week 3.
While Watson wasn’t good last week vs. the Jaguars, he was at least slightly better; he got to 15.44 DraftKings points thanks to a rushing touchdown.
The best thing he has going for him this week is the matchup. The Giants were absolutely shredded by the Commanders in Week 2, even though they didn’t put up any touchdowns. They had six separate trips in the red zone, and their only drive that didn’t end in points was a kneel-down before the end of the half. They ultimately rattled off 425 yards of total offense, and the Giants defense is 30th in EPA per play through the first two weeks.
If Watson can’t find success in this spot, we can probably just cross him off for the rest of the season. That said, I’m willing to give him one more chance at just $5,500.
