Thanks to a MNF double-header, we’re down to 12 games on the Week 3 main slate, though there are plenty of high-scoring contests to choose from. As always, lock is at 1:00 p.m. ET on Sunday.
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the DFS slate.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Stud: Kyler Murray ($6,900) Arizona Cardinals (+3) vs. Detroit Lions (53.5 Total)
The three top quarterbacks on the slate are all projecting within a point of each other. Jalen Hurts ($7,300) leads the way followed by Lamar Jackson ($7,500), with Murray a close third.
However, the combination of salary, matchup, and game environment makes Murray the best high-end DFS play. He’s taking on a Lions team that has allowed opposing quarterbacks a positive 2.1 Opponent Plus/Minus, while both Jackson and Hurts have negative matchups.
Plus, Lions-Cardinals is the only game on the slate with a total of 50 or more, with both teams capable of putting up points fast. Detroit has also been a bit of a pass funnel early in the season, ranking third in DVOA against the run but 16th against the pass.
Throw in a concentrated pass-catching corps (only three players with more than five targets on the season) that makes for easy stacking, and you have a near-perfect QB run-out for Murray.
Value: Geno Smith ($5,600) Seattle Seahawks (-4.5) vs. Miami Dolphins (41.5 Total)
Seattle is 2-0, with both wins between three and six points this season, meaning they’ve had fairly similar game flows in both games. In Week 1, Smith threw for 171 yards on 25 pass attempts. In Week 2, he threw it 44 times for 327 yards.
The difference between those games is largely explained by the absence of lead back Kenneth Walker. Without Walker, Seattle switched to a more pass-heavy approach. Walker has yet to get in a practice this week, and seems to be on the wrong side of questionable.
This sets up nicely for Smith, despite the low total in the Dolphins-Seahawks game. The total is held down by Miami’s quarterback situation, but they still have plenty of offensive weapons. Plus, Skyler Thompson ($5,100) should be better with a full week of practice.
The ceiling on Smith is much lower than Murray’s, but so is his salary. He has a fairly solid floor, assuming Walker misses, and makes sense as a cash game option if the $1,300 in salary saved helps your lineup elsewhere.
Quick Hits
Jared Goff ($6,500): The other side of the week’s highest-total game is Goff. He’s been a bit of a disappointment so far, failing to crack 14 DraftKings points in either game. However, Detroit has left plenty of touchdowns on the board, going 3-11 in trips to the red zone this season. The good news is the 11 trips are tied for the league lead, and the touchdowns should regress positively any minute now.
Derek Carr ($5,800): Carr is still underpriced for being the quarterback of the highest-scoring team in the league. Most of that has come through the run game, but he’s still topped 20 points on DraftKings in both games this season despite attempting just 39 total passes. He should get more volume against an Eagles team that can score themselves, which could lead to a huge score if his elite efficiency holds up. His 98% Bargain Rating leads the slate for QBs.
Jalen Hurts ($7,300): While I mentioned Hurts above, he deserves a bit more discussion this week. The Saints’ high-scoring offense could create a perfect situation for Hurts this week. Philly has been a bottom-10 team in passing rate this season but might have to open up a bit more if New Orleans keeps up the scoring. Rostering Hurts naked with some Saints skill position players is a sneaky, though expensive, way to target this contest.
Sam Darnold ($5,500): The other cheap QB worth a look this week is Darnold. Minnesota hasn’t been forced to throw the ball much in two fairly easy wins this season, but that should change against a strong Texans offense. The health of his pass catchers is somewhat concerning, but he has a better game environment and weaker defensive matchup than Geno Smith at $100 cheaper.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Stud: Alvin Kamara ($7,500) New Orleans Saints (-2.5) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (49.5 Total)
As I alluded to above, one of my favorite ways to build for GPPs this week is Hurts with a Saints bring-back. The obvious one is Kamara, who put up 47 DraftKings points last week and is the overall RB1 by a wide margin.
It feels a little like chasing last week’s production to get back to the well with Kamara, but that (and his salary) should keep his ownership fairly reasonable. He almost certainly won’t score four touchdowns again this week, but that doesn’t mean he can’t be a GPP winner.
Kamara has seen at least 20 touches in both of the Saints games so far this season despite the blowout scores. He’s functioning as their primary red-zone weapon, with Taysom Hill ($3,800) mercifully not seeing a touch inside the 20 this year.
If this is as close as the spread indicates, Kamara should have an even bigger role this week. That keeps him in the conversation for all contest types.
Value: Jordan Mason ($6,200) San Francisco 49ers (-7) at Los Angeles Rams (44 Total)
Mason’s salary is up $1,000 this week after he was massively owned in Week 2 in an obvious value scenario. While he didn’t light the world on fire, he did win someone a million dollars, so it’s hard to complain about his production.
It’s an even better situation this week for Mason. The matchup is softer — Minnesota ranks 12th in DVOA against the run, while the Rams rank 20th. Plus, de facto RB2 Deebo Samuel is doubtful to play this week and will likely be out for a couple of games.
Throw in a likely positive game script, and we should see a massive workload for Mason. He handled 28 carries in the Week 1 win over the Jets, throwing in a target for good measure. He has a high likelihood of approaching those numbers again while also seeing an uptick in efficiency in a soft matchup.
Quick Hits
Zack Charbonnet ($6,000): Charbonnet is the GPP pivot from Mason this week. The situation is similar, a backup running back with an injured starter, in what should be a positive game script against a team bad at stopping the run. Seattle’s line/offense as a whole isn’t nearly as good as the 49ers, but Charbonnet is more involved in the passing game. He’s also projecting for much lower ownership, which is the big appeal.
Derrick Henry ($6,500): Henry has played less than 50% of the Ravens’ snaps this season, but he still has a touchdown in both games and a respectable 14.4-point average score on DraftKings. Crucially, Baltimore is also 0-2, meaning the game script hasn’t worked out well for the bruising Henry. Now he faces a Cowboys team that just allowed Alvin Kamara to score thrice on the ground as a slight favorite. This is the perfect buy-low opportunity on “King Henry.”
Jahmyr Gibbs ($6,800) and David Montgomery ($6,100): The Lions’ dual RB1s have combined for 70 opportunities this season, with a near-even split (37 for Gibbs and 33 for Montgomery). That makes it hard to feel great about either of them at their salaries. Still, they’re a combined 4/4 in beating their salary-based expectations this season. I highlighted Detroit as one of the top offensive line mismatches this week, so one or both could have a big day. I prefer to mix and match between the two, with Gibbs, a solid stacking partner for Goff and Montgomery pairing well with Murray. Gibbs sees the field more in negative game scripts (which also increases the Lions pass rate), and vise versa.
D’Andre Swift ($5,600): As someone who was very high on Swift for Best Ball, I can tell you that he has not lived up to expectations thus far. He’s somehow averaging a miserable 2.0 yards per carry, with four catches across two games. However, he has one of the best possible RB matchups this week against the Colts, who’ve given up 53.5 points to the position across two games. It’s a solid buy-low spot on a player who shouldn’t see much ownership.
De’Von Achane ($7,000): Miami seems comfortable giving Achane a large workload at the moment. He saw 29 opportunities in Week 2 with Raheem Mostert ($5,700) injured, including seven targets. I’m probably out on Achane, considering his cost if Mostert makes it back in time for Week 3, but it’s looking like a true game-day decision. This is a late-window game, so being able to pivot to Achane could be a big edge.
Cam Akers ($4,700): Both Joe Mixon ($6,900) and Dameon Pierce ($4,800) were DNPs in Wednesday and Thursday’s practice sessions, with Akers taking reps with the first team. Akers looked good in a limited role in Week 2, picking up 32 yards on seven carries while catching his lone target. He’s not quite the bargain he would’ve been a few years ago when backup RBs were priced near the minimum, but he’s still a screaming value if both Mixon and Pierce are out.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Stud: CeeDee Lamb ($8,800) Dallas Cowboys (+1) vs. Baltimore Ravens (48 Total)
Lamb was the pick in this section of the column last week, with mixed results. He went 4/90/1 on seven targets but didn’t play much down the stretch in what turned out to be a blowout loss for the Cowboys. Had he caught just one more ball for at least 10 yards (thus hitting the 100-yard bonus), it would’ve been considered a strong showing.
This week, the WR position isn’t quite as strong at the top, with Lamb and Justin Jefferson ($8,600) having the two highest median and ceiling projections. Jefferson could be at less than full strength after leaving Week 2 with a quad injury and getting in only limited practices this week.
The bad news for Lamb is the Ravens pass defense, which finished first overall in DVOA in 2023. The good news for Lamb is the Cowboys can’t run the ball, can’t stop the run, and are aware of both of those factors. Dallas needs to get out to an early lead, which should lead to an aggressive approach to the passing game like we saw in the back half of 2023.
All of which gives Lamb a somewhat broad range of outcomes here. At his price point, something like six catches for 85 yards is a big disappointment, but he’s also capable of a 35+ point explosion. That makes more more interested in him for GPPs than cash. He’s not a bad cash game play by any stretch, just a risky one.
Value: Elijah Moore ($3,600) Cleveland Browns (-6.5) vs. New York Giants (39.5 Total)
Just like on the top end, there’s not an obvious value play at wide receiver this week. There are a few in the mid-range with solid Pts/Sal projections that we’ll get to below, and some thinner cheap plays. One of those is Moore, who leads the FantasyLabs projections in Pts/Sal and checks in at second in THE BLITZ.
Moore has somewhat quietly seen 14 targets through two games this season, as the Browns have been uncharacteristically pass-heavy due to game flow and lack of a quality running back. They’re fairly heavily favored against the Giants, though, which calls the game flow part of that equation into question.
Still, given his minuscule price tag, Morre could get there on three or four catches. His ceiling is limited unless the Giants keep pace, so I’d only consider him in GPPs with a Giants piece like Malik Nabers ($6,400).
However, he doesn’t need a big day to be a good play in cash games, where he makes sense as a one-off option.
Quick Hits
Jordan Whittington ($4,200): After Cooper Kupp went down, Whittington played every snap for the Rams in Week 2. That led to just two catches on two targets in a game that was mostly out of hand but it is a strong sign for his production going forward. The rookie sixth-rounder may have only been in because of the lopsided score — or he’s Kupp’s direct backup and could lead the team in targets. The Rams have turned unknown receivers into fantasy stars twice during the Stafford/McVay era, so I want some exposure here. He’s the top WR play in optimal-projected ownership in SimLabs this week.
DeVonta Smith ($6,900): It looks like AJ Brown will miss Week 3 for the Eagles, leaving Smith as their WR1. In a similar role last week, he caught seven of ten targets for 76 yards and a touchdown. If the Saints offense continues their torrid pace, this should be a much better game environment than Week 2 was, making Smith a solid play again. His price means we probably need 100 yards and a score to pay it off, but that’s well within the range of outcomes here.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($5,400): The sophomore wideout has quietly moved past Tyler Lockett ($5,100) for the #2 receiver role in Seattle, doubling up the veteran in targets so far this season with 18. His usage is roughly on par with DK Metcalf ($6,300) but at a cheaper price. If Miami’s offense can make it work without Tua Tagovailoa this week, we could see a fairly high-scoring game and lots of receiving work to go around, making JSN an interesting GPP target.
Tank Dell ($5,200): The Texans have three solid options at receiver, making it hard to guess right on production on a weekly basis. Nico Collins ($7,300) is the alpha with a 24% target share, but Dell and Stefon Diggs ($6,600) have solid 14% and 16% marks. Collins missed practice Wednesday and was limited on Thursday. He’ll probably play in a limited fashion, with more looks to go around to Diggs and Dell. Houston’s top two running backs are both yet to practice this week though, which should lead to a higher overall pass rate. He’s a bit boom-or-bust, but the price is right to take a few swings.
Mike Evans ($7,200) and Chris Godwin ($6,500): Godwin is the overall WR1 through two weeks, with 16 targets through their first two games. He’s still cheaper than his teammate Mike Evans, who’s also been solid with an 8/103/2 line through two weeks. Both would need the Denver offense to keep pace to truly pay off their high salaries this week, but the odds are better with all the injuries to the Tampa defense. Godwin is the safer play (and is worth a look in cash), while Evans is a “pay up to be contrarian” GPP option.
Jameson Williams ($5,800): Williams has maintained his deep-threat nature this season, averaging 20 yards per reception. He’s also added strong WR2 usage, seeing 20 targets for a 23.3% target share through two weeks. In the game with the week’s highest total, he’s a very strong play at single-digit ownership.
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NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Stud: George Kittle ($5,700) San Francisco 49ers (-7) at Los Angeles Rams (44 Total)
With Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel both out in Week 3, that 49ers offense should be heavily concentrated between Jordan Mason, Brandon Aiyuk ($6,200), and Kittle. Their 25-point team total is top-three on the slate, which means we should see two elite price-considered scores from that trio or three solid ones.
I like betting on Kittle here for a few reasons. One is his salary. He’s the cheapest of the pair at $5,700, though it’s reasonably close. He’s also expected to garner the lowest ownership, so a big game from him means more than from Mason or Aiyuk.
Most important though, is his position. Tight end has been a cesspool so far in 2024, with fairly mediocre scores being enough to gain a huge edge on the field. Kittle caught seven of eight targets for 76 yards and a score last week, one of just three 20+ point DraftKings scores from tight ends this season.
That was with Samuel active for about half the game, so he could be even more involved this week.
Watch the injury reports though. Kittle missed Thursday’s practice after being a full participant on Wednesday, so Friday’s reports should give us some clarity.
Kittle leads THE BLITZ median projections while coming in with the second-best mark in Sean Koerner’s projections.
Value: Greg Dulcich ($2,900) Denver Broncos (+6.5) at Tampa Bay Bucs (41 Total)
DraftKings has made tight end a much tougher position to find value in the last season or two, pricing most of the viable options in the $4,000 range, with the players cheaper than that extremely thin.
With that said, finding a punt player who can score a few points is still a huge edge, especially with the extremely low ceiling we’ve seen from the position. Dulcich fits that bill, with his 11 targets ranking seventh among tight ends so far this year.
What those targets are worth with rookie quarterback Bo Nix ($5,100) being the one throwing them is up for discussion. Dulcich has caught just five of them for 28 yards thus far. On the optimistic side, those were against tough pass defenses in the Seahawks and Steelers (3rd and 6th in DVOA against the pass so far), while Tampa Bay (13th) is a bit easier of a matchup.
Dulcich is unlikely to post a “have to have it” score, but he’s a solid cash game punt. If he happens to stumble into the end zone on one of his catches, he might be a tournament winner.
Quick Hits
Trey McBride ($6,200): McBride’s 26.3% target share leads the position (among main slate eligible players), but he’s priced accurately for his role. He’s the top receiving option for the Cardinals in terms of volume, leading the team in targets, receptions, and even snap share among skill players. With the slate’s best game environment he’s a solid bet to lead the position in raw scoring this week, whether he does it by enough to pay off his salary is the real question.
Jake Ferguson ($4,500) The Cowboys could’ve used Ferguson last week against the Saints, who shifted their coverage heavily to CeeDee Lamb and shut down the passing offense. He’s on track to return for Week 3 at a depressed salary, thanks to sitting out a week. That might just mean more open looks for Lamb, but Ferguson has a high ceiling relative to his price point. Baltimore is the second-best tight end matchup by Opponent Plus/Minus on the slate.
Sam LaPorta ($6,000): Nothing in LaPorta’s stats right now suggests a breakout. He’s seen just eight targets through three weeks, putting him fourth in the Lions pecking order. Detroit has also struggled offensively relative to expectations, specifically in the red zone. Those two statements might be related, so it wouldn’t be a shock if the Lions put more of an emphasis on LaPorta this week. It’s a bit thin, but at sub-5% ownership in an elite game environment, it’s worth going above the field.
Brock Bowers ($5,400): Rookie first-rounder Brock Bowers might be this year’s Sam LaPorta: a highly drafted tight end who breaks the mold of rookie tight ends struggling in their first year. He’s the overall TE2 in fantasy right now, with 15 catches for 156 yards through two weeks. He’s yet to find the endzone — which will certainly regress soon — making this possibly the last chance to buy low on him.
GPP Roster Construction
It’s a fun week for GPPs, with a handful of games that are clearly worth targeting, plus some sneakier options that could just win the day.
The slate’s best total belongs to Arizona and Detroit. The Cardinals feature a fairly condensed offense with Marvin Harrison Jr. ($7,400) and Trey McBride accounting for the bulk of their passing offense. Because of that, I prefer stacks built around those two and Kyler Murray, with a Detroit bring-back. Either of the running backs, Jameson Williams, Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,200), and Sam LaPorta, all make sense. I’ll be mixing and matching between them.
I really like building around the Eagles-Saints game this week. If New Orleans is anywhere near as good as they’ve been so far on offense, it sets up perfectly for GPPs. Jalen Hurts paired with De’Vonta Smith in a concentrated Eagles passing offense, plus a Saint or two coming back.
Ravens-Cowboys is another fun one, given the Cowboys’ concentrated passing offense, inability to run the ball, and inability to stop the run. Given Dak Prescott’s ($6,600) lack of rushing production, you probably want two of his pass catchers and not just Lamb in the stack. A Derrick Henry bring-back correlates perfectly with this scenario.
For more on my favorite GPP approaches, be sure to check out my SimLabs building blocks article.
Cash Games
For the first time this season, cash games in Week 3 feel wide open. I’m having a hard time identifying an “obviously correct” cash build, with a variety of builds seeming viable.
Starting at quarterback, where we’d obviously love to play Kyler Murray in the week’s best game environment. I’d also love to be able to spend his salary elsewhere, which is why I’m leaning towards one of Geno Smith or Sam Darnold instead. I prefer Darnold slightly over Smith personally, but the projections give Smith a slight edge. It’s close either way.
At running back, a lot hinges on whether or not we get an obvious value in Cam Akers on the slate. Jordan Mason is probably the only “must-play” option otherwise, but you could make a case for fading him at $6,200. Alvin Kamara is the RB equivalent of Murray. It would be nice to have the salary for him, but it might be tough to find. Outside of those three, I’m considering Derrick Henry despite his scary-low floor and Chuba Hubbard ($5,200) on the off chance the quarterback change in Carolina leads to a halfway functional offense.
At wideout, my most confident play is probably Devonta Smith, but his $6,900 price tag keeps him just short of being a “must-play.” CeeDee Lamb is in the same boat — a very strong play, but slightly too expensive for the likeliest production.
Behind those two, I’m fine with plugging my nose and rostering Elijah Moore if the remaining salary calls for it, but I would love to fill that spot with someone like Rashid Shaheed or Tank Dell if possible. Jajuan Jennings ($4,100) makes sense, too, given the 49ers injury situation.
Three running back builds are looking stronger than 4WR options this week, so my wide receiver pool will be fairly tight this week.
At tight end, I’m just clicking Dulcich or Hayden Hurst ($2,900) at the same price point. The field will have a decent amount of higher-priced tight ends, but ownership won’t condense on any one of them to the point that a big game buries your roster.
At defense, Tampa Bay ($3,000) would be an obvious choice — except all three starting defensive linemen are currently questionable. Two of the three are almost certainly out this week for a team that’s produced just two sacks this season. Tennessee ($2,700) might be the play if Jordan Love doesn’t return this week, but he’s gotten in two limited practices and could very well suit up.
This leaves us with…Carolina ($2,400)? They’re taking on the Raiders and Gardner Minshew, who’s taken nine sacks and thrown two picks through two games. The Panthers run defense is terrible, but that’s less of a concern in this matchup. I also like the Detroit Hutchinsons Lions ($2,900). They’re on the expensive side but should be able to get after Kyler Murray with their pass rush.
