NFL Week 3 gets underway with an AFC East rivalry game. The New York Jets will host their first home game of the season, and they’ll be taking on the New England Patriots. The Jets are listed as six-point home favorites, while the total sits at just 38.5 points.
Both teams currently sit at 1-1, but they’ve done it in different ways. The Jets were throttled by the 49ers in Week 1 but managed to escape with a win vs. the Titans in Week 2. They were outgained by the Titans and likely would’ve lost if not for some careless Will Levis turnovers.
The Patriots were expected to be the worst team in the league this season, but they’ve been extremely competitive through the first two weeks. They managed to beat the Bengals as big underdogs in their first game of the year, and they followed that up with an overtime loss to the Seahawks. Expectations for this team were clearly too low entering the season, at least before handing the reigns to Drake Maye.
Who has the edge in this matchup? Let’s dive in.
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NFL DFS Stud Picks
The top of the pricing spectrum is dominated by running backs on Thursday. It starts with Breece Hall, which is no surprise. He was one of the first running backs off the board in fantasy drafts this offseason, and he’s had a fantastic start to his season. He’s racked up at least 19.3 DraftKings points in back-to-back weeks, including 24.4 DraftKings points in his last outing.
Hall’s biggest fantasy asset is his ability in the passing game. He’s been hyperactive as a receiver the first two weeks, logging 14 total targets. He’s responded with 12 catches for 91 yards and a touchdown. No running back in football has a better target share than Hall’s 25%, and Alvin Kamara (21%) and Bijan Robinson (21%) are the only other backs over 20%.
That’s not to say that Hall can’t do damage as a runner. He entered this season averaging an extremely efficient 4.8 yards per attempt through his first two seasons. He hasn’t been able to reach those heights yet this season, but he should continue to get plenty of opportunities. Hall had 89% of the team’s rushing attempts in Week 1 vs. the 49ers before dipping to 61% vs. the Titans.
Hall ultimately leads the slate in median projection by a comfortable margin, clearing his closest competitor by nearly five points. The margin is a bit slimmer in ceiling projection, but Hall is the top option there as well.
Rhamondre Stevenson is the other stud runner in this contest, and he’s just $400 cheaper than Hall on DraftKings. Stevenson has been excellent to start the year, but that feels like a pretty massive overreaction. He was merely $9,800 for his first game of the season, so his price tag has increased by nearly $2,000.
In fairness, Stevenson has been strong to start the year. He’s racked up at least 21 carries in both contests, and he’s scored a touchdown in both as well. He also had 120 rushing yards in his first game of the year, and he’s added a respectable eight targets. Overall, he’s finished as the No. 7 and No. 11 PPR back in the first two weeks.
The Jets also stand out as an intriguing matchup. They were absolutely bullied by the 49ers offensive line in Week 1, allowing San Francisco to rack up 180 rushing yards. The Titans had 130 rushing yards against the Jets in Week 2, so they’ve been pretty exploitable. New York ranks merely 24th in rush defense EPA through the first two weeks, so it’s another spot where Stevenson could find some success.
Still, it’s hard to justify paying $11,200 for a running back who is a six-point underdog, particularly one that isn’t an elite-level pass-catcher. Antonio Gibson is going to steal work from him on passing downs, so he could see more playing time if the Jets establish a big lead.
Stevenson ultimately owns the worst projected DraftKings Plus/Minus on the entire slate, but he’s still projected for nearly 40% ownership. I would look elsewhere.
The Jets passing attack has been a bit underwhelming to start the year, but Garrett Wilson remains their unquestioned top option. He has a 30% target share and 44% air yards share through the first two weeks, which is elite usage. The only other players to join the “30/40” club after two games this season are Malik Nabers, Cooper Kupp, and DeVonta Smith. His monster workload hasn’t led to a ton of production – 12.0 DraftKings points in Week 1, 10.6 in Week 2 – but better games should follow.
Perhaps that will start this week. The Patriots were absolutely torched by the Seahawks receivers last week, with D.K. Metcalf (31.9 DraftKings points) and Jaxson Smith-Njigba (26.7 DraftKings points) both eclipsing 100 yards. For the year, the Patriots have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing receivers. Wilson stands out as an elite target on FanDuel, where his $13,000 salary comes with a slate-high 89% Bargain Rating, but he’s a strong option across the industry.
Aaron Rodgers rounds out this price range, but it remains to be seen if he still deserves “stud” status. He hasn’t looked the part so far this season, finishing with 15.14 DraftKings points or fewer in back-to-back games.
However, both of those games have come on the road, and Rodgers has always done his best work at home. He’s averaged roughly three additional fantasy points per game at home for his career, though all of that sample came from his time with the Packers (per the Trends tool). His only experience at MetLife Stadium was Week 1 of last year, which resulted in a torn Achilles after just four plays.
Rodgers is still getting some respect in our projections, especially from a ceiling projection. He trails only Hall in that department, and he clears the No. 3 option by nearly five points. That alone makes him worth considering in tournaments.
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NFL DFS Midrange Picks
The midrange section for this slate is pretty tiny, with only five players priced between $5,000 and $10,000 on DraftKings (excluding the Jets defense).
Jacoby Brissett leads the way at $9,000, and he has long been an undervalued option at the position. He was PFF’s No. 6 quarterback in 2022 and No. 15 QB in 2021, so he’s good enough to start for a lot of franchises. He likely won’t finish the year as the Patriots’ starter – Maye will get his chance eventually – but Brissett should keep the team competent while under center.
That said, Brissett’s skill set isn’t the best for fantasy purposes. He can run a little bit – he had 32 rushing yards in Week 1 – but he’s not really a volume passer. He’s thrown just 51 total passes through the first two weeks, and he’s yet to eclipse 10.56 DraftKings points.
Brissett might have to throw the ball a bit more if the Patriots fall into a hole in this matchup, but that doesn’t necessarily guarantee success. The Jets had one of the best pass defenses in football last season, and Brissett’s -6.3 Opponent Plus/Minus is the worst mark on the slate. A $9,000 quarterback is always going to have some appeal in the single-game format, but Brissett is far from a must-play.
Hunter Henry is the Patriots’ highest-priced pass-catcher, and he looked the part in Week 2. He finished with 12 targets, which he converted into eight catches and more than 100 yards. It was enough to put him in the starting conversation for fantasy purposes at a very weak position.
That said, don’t forget about his Week 1 performance – three targets, two catches, and 18 yards. It’s possible that Henry is the No. 1 pass-catcher for the Patriots, but it’s also possible that Week 2 was his best performance of the entire year. He has the second-worst projected Plus/Minus on the slate, so I’m not excited about paying an elevated salary for him.
Mike Williams and Allen Lazard are priced fairly comparably on the slate. That makes sense from a route participation standpoint. Lazard was at 76% in Week 2, but Williams was just slightly behind at 73%. It represented a big jump for Williams, who ran a route on just 19% of the team’s dropbacks in Week 1.
Williams should continue to improve in that department as he gets further removed from last year’s season-ending injury. Williams has been a big-play fantasy producer in the past, so buying low on him feels preferable to “buying high” on Lazard.
Of course, Lazard’s chemistry with Rodgers can’t be overstated. Rodgers has talked him up repeatedly during the offseason, and he had two touchdown catches in Week 1.
Braelon Allen rounds out this price range, and the rookie had a huge performance in Week 2. He was on the field for just 20 snaps, but he saw seven carries and four targets in that time frame. He produced two catches and 56 total yards in that sample, and he also found the paint twice.
The fourth-rounder clearly has some talent, and the Jets will probably look to continue getting him the ball whenever he’s on the field. That said, it’s hard to see his role growing behind Hall. He’s likely going to need another touchdown to provide value in this matchup.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play in the single-game format. Both defenses should be popular against the offenses, but the kickers could be undervalued in an expected low-scoring game.
- DeMario Douglas ($4,400 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) – The Patriots don’t have a single receiver priced above $4,400 on DraftKings, which is pretty wild. Douglas leads the team in routes through the first two weeks, though he’s posted a measly 5% target share.
- Ja’Lynn Polk ($4,000 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel) – Polk has the Patriots’ lone receiving touchdown this season, but other than that, his production has been dismal. He has just three catches for 18 yards through the first two weeks, and he’s had a route participation below 70% in back-to-back contests.
- Antonio Gibson ($3,600 DraftKings, $11,500 FanDuel) – Gibson is crazy expensive on FanDuel, but $3,600 on DraftKings is very reasonable. He’s garnered 26% of the team’s carries this season, and he provides some upside as a pass-catcher as well.
- K.J. Osborn ($3,200 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) – Osborn led the team with a 27% target share in Week 1, and his eight total targets this season are the most among the Pats’ receivers. That hasn’t led to any tangible fantasy production, but he’s at least somewhat interesting.
- Tyler Conklin ($2,800 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel) – Conklin has been a total non-factor as a pass-catcher so far, but he’s on the field a lot. He has a route participation of at least 85% in back-to-back games, which gives him some upside in this price range.
- Austin Hooper ($2,400 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) – Hooper was targetted on 29% of his routes in Week 1, but he disappeared in Week 2.
- Tyquan Thornton ($1,600 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) – Thornton is the Patriots No. 4 receiver, but there’s really not much separating him from the top three. He has a 66% route participation for the year, so he’s been on the field a lot through the first two weeks.
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