Like any healthy market, price fluctuations are expected for players in daily fantasy football (NFL DFS). Exploring those fluctuations can often reveal bargain players to target after down weeks or players that are rising too high in price above future expectations.
Each week, we will analyze one player at each position that has notably increased and decreased in price.
Notable NFL DFS Price Increases
Derek Carr, QB (New Orleans Saints) Week 2 DraftKings Price $5,300; Week 3 DraftKings Price $5,800
Maybe the biggest surprise in the NFL through two weeks, the New Orleans Saints offense has been unstoppable to start the season. Derek Carr led five touchdown drives before halftime on Sunday as the Saints topped 44 points on the scoreboard for the second straight week.
Carr has five touchdown passes in 39 pass attempts for a wild 12.8 TD%. While these games are likely an outlier in efficiency, the resurgence of Alvin Kamara and the development of deep-ball threat Rashid Shaheed provide the most balanced attack around Carr since he moved to New Orleans.
The league leader through two weeks with a 96.2 QBR and 11.4 yards/attempt, Carr gets a well-deserved price jump this week after two straight 20+ DraftKings point performances. Assuming the Eagles don’t get blown out, Carr should see more pass attempts this week in an offense that doesn’t bleed the clock throughout the entire second half.
J.K. Dobbins, RB (Los Angeles Chargers) Week 2 DraftKings Price $5,400; Week 3 DraftKings Price $6,400
We wondered what the backfield split would look like in Los Angeles with J.K. Dobbins, Gus Edwards, and rookie Kimani Vidal all fighting for touches. Though Edwards’ carry totals have been similar, Dobbins has been by far the more productive back with over 130 yards in each game with three total scores.
The Chargers overwhelmed the Panthers from the start of the game on Sunday in a 26-3 win that looked similar to the trench domination that Jim Harbaugh coveted while at Michigan. Justin Herbert threw the ball just 20 times, and the Chargers amassed 44 rushes, with Dobbins earning 17 and Edwards netting 18.
Expect a smash mouth low-scoring game this week as the Chargers and Steelers face off in a surprising undefeated clash. Dobbins should continue to see plenty of work, but the Steelers defense is stout upfront with the 4th-fewest rushing yards allowed in the NFL through two weeks.
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Tyler Johnson, WR (Los Angeles Rams) Week 2 DraftKings Price $3,4300; Week 3 DraftKings Price $4,700
The season could not have started worse for the Los Angeles Rams, who have been decimated by injuries at key positions. Puka Nacua was hurt in the opening week, and Cooper Kupp was injured in Week 2. With neither expected to return against the 49ers, Tyler Johnson and Demarcus Robinson will see expanded roles.
Johnson comes in slightly below Robinson on the price chart and earned seven targets in Week 1, even with the full complement of receivers on the field. The game script against San Francisco could easily force Matthew Stafford to throw the ball in catch-up mode.
The former Buccaneers wideout averages 14.1 yards/reception this season and 11.2 for his career. He has been slotted behind the likes of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin for much of his career. This is a huge opportunity for Johnson to show what he can do as an NFL starter.
Brock Bowers, TE (Las Vegas Raiders) Week 2 DraftKings Price $4,400; Week 3 DraftKings Price $5,400
Without many standout tight end performances in the young season, Raiders rookie Brock Bowers has impressed with 15 catches on 17 targets. He has amassed 156 receiving yards but has yet to score his first touchdown.
The Raiders were surprisingly spry in Week 2 as they upset the Ravens, and Gardner Minshew came alive in the second half. Through two games, Minshew has the most completions (55) and the highest completion rate (77.5%) in the league.
Concerns about Bowers’ target share with competition from second-year tight end Michael Mayer have quickly been squashed. Mayer has just four targets through the team’s first two games, and Bowers is clearly a focal point in the offense. The consistent targets make him a strong consideration for fantasy players on a weekly basis.
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Notable NFL DFS Price Decreases
Matthew Stafford, QB (Los Angeles Rams) Week 2 DraftKings Price $6,000; Week 3 DraftKings Price $5,700
The Rams were throttled early by the Cardinals in Week 2 as Kyler Murray and Marvin Harrison Jr. helped Arizona get a quick 21-0 lead in the first quarter. The wheels came off throughout the game for Matthew Stafford and the Rams offense without sophomore standout Puka Nacua on the field.
Stafford finished the game without a score or interception and just 216 passing yards, even though the Rams were playing catch-up the entire game. He has just one touchdown through two weeks with a minuscule 1.3% TD rate.
Without Nacua, Cooper Kupp, and multiple starting offensive linemen, Stafford will face an uphill battle this week against a good 49ers defense. Backup wide receivers Demarcus Robinson and Tyler Johnson will be his primary pass catchers, but he may need to rely on dump-offs to Kyren Williams to provide explosive fantasy production.
Jonathan Taylor, RB (Indianapolis Colts) Week 2 DraftKings Price $7,700; Week 3 DraftKings Price $7,300
The Colts offense sputtered in Week 2 against the Packers, who managed to grind out a victory behind Malik Willis and a relentless running attack. Jonathan Taylor did top the 100-yard mark but tallied just two receptions for 32 yards and failed to get into the end zone.
Taylor continues to be one of the most dynamic runners in the NFL, but his ceiling may be capped with his moderate pass-catching opportunities. Taylor has never caught more than 2.5 receptions/game in a season, which pales in comparison to the career rates of other top-tier fantasy backs like Saquon Barkley (3.9) and Christian McCaffrey (5.6).
Anthony Richardson‘s touchdown-scoring prowess in the red zone poses another threat to Taylor’s upside. The second-year quarterback has six rushing touchdowns in eight career starts. Taylor may continue to rack up high rushing totals this season, but he will need an uptick in high-value opportunities to return his salary value in DraftKings lineups.
Jaylen Waddle, WR (Miami Dolphins) Week 2 DraftKings Price $6,400; Week 3 DraftKings Price $6,000
All Miami pass-catching options take a massive expectations hit with the concussion sidelining Tua Tagovailoa. Jaylen Waddle would likely be a star No. 1 receiver in most NFL offenses, but he slots in as the second wide receiver target behind Tyreek Hill and maybe the third overall target with running back De’Von Achane gobbling up seven targets in each of the team’s first two games.
Waddle’s touchdown total dipped last season to just four scores in 14 games. He continues to post an impressive 16.7 yards/reception this season but has yet to find the end zone through two weeks.
He will likely be catching passes from Skylar Thompson this week against the Seahawks. Thompson has appeared in eight games for the Dolphins, with two starts in 2022. He has just one touchdown pass in 105 attempts.
Dalton Schultz, TE (Houston Texans) Week 2 DraftKings Price $4,600; Week 3 DraftKings Price $4,300
With so many options in the Houston passing game, C.J. Stroud has only targeted tight end Dalton Schultz three times in each of the first two weeks for a total of five catches and 37 yards. The additions of Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon improve this offense as a whole but hurt the opportunities for Schultz.
Schultz has been a consistent low-mid tight end option over the last few seasons and is capable of strong fantasy performances. He earned double-digit targets in three games last season and tallied five touchdowns.
Until he sees a consistent target increase, Schultz is likely not a lineup target.
