We’ve got a full-sized main slate in Week 2, with 13 games for the 1:00 p.m. ET lock time. Week 2 is an interesting time, as we try to decide which Week 1 results are indicative of future performances and which were mere variance.
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the DFS slate.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Stud: Patrick Mahomes ($7,000) Kansas City Chiefs (-6) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (48 Total)
It’s a two-horse race for the top quarterback on the slate, with multiple-time MVP winners Mahomes and Lamar Jackson ($7,700) separating from the field. One or the other leads the majority of projection systems this week, with Mahomes taking the top spot in Sean Koerner’s projections.
Both the Chiefs and Ravens have top-five implied totals on the slate, with Mahomes’ Chiefs leading the Ravens by two points. That gives both quarterbacks extremely solid floors, with their upside dependent on how much the opposing team can force them to stay aggressive.
That factor (as well as the $700 in salary) is why I prefer Mahomes to Jackson. He’s facing a Bengals team that looked bad offensively in Week 1, but at least in theory, can push the pace with their passing attack. On the other hand, the Ravens take on the Raiders, a less exciting offense.
Even if the Raiders keep things close, it’s likely through a slow, ball-control approach. On the other hand, the Bengals have the explosive threats to score quickly and return the ball to Mahomes and the Chiefs.
In any case, rostering Mahomes makes more sense as part of a full game stack. You’re probably not getting much rushing production, which means he’ll bring (at least) a pass catcher along with him. Plus, for him to have a slate-winning score, Cincinnati will need to be productive offensively too.
Value: Jayden Daniels ($6,200) Washington Commanders (-1.5) vs. New York Giants (43 Total)
We have a four-way tie for the top Pts/Sal quarterback this week, including Mahomes and Daniels. The sweet spot for cash games is Daniels, the Commanders’ rookie who provides a solid floor thanks to his rushing production.
He had a 16/88/2 rushing line last week against a reasonably tough Bucs defense and now draws the Giants. New York gave up 28 points last week to the Vikings and project as one of the league’s worst defenses coming into the season.
Daniels’ upside is tied to which version of Daniel Jones (more on him in a second) shows up here. While Jones was terrible in Week 1, he’s been known to turn into “Danny Dimes” sporadically. With Washington’s defense ranking dead last in DVOA against the pass in 2023 and doing little to improve, this one has sneaky shootout potential.
I like using Daniels “naked” in cash games, while looking to build around stacks if considering him for GPPs. To truly be a slate winner, he’ll probably need a bit more passing production than he provided in Week 1.
Quick Hits
Daniel Jones ($5,400): In Week 1 of the 2023 season, Daniel Jones went 15 for 28 for 104 passing yards. In Week 1 of 2024, he was 22 for 42 for 186 yards. On both occasions, he failed to score even seven DraftKings points. However, he followed that up last year with a 34.74-point score that included 300 yards of passing and three total touchdowns. Obviously, that doesn’t mean he’ll do it again, but the matchup with Washington is about as good as it gets, and his price and ownership projections are both low. It’s ugly, but it’s now or never.
Dak Prescott ($6,700): The catch-22 of Prescott in DFS is that the bulk of his production is through just one pass catcher, stud WR CeeDee Lamb. It’s a positive because it makes stacking easy, but the drawback is you can capture most of that production through Lamb while rostering another quarterback. That’s the dilemma here again this week, but it’s a great spot for the Cowboys offense. If the Saints can move the ball like they did in Week 1, this has shootout written all over it, and the Cowboys’ lack of run game should force a high pass rate from Prescott.
Anthony Richardson ($6,800): Anthony Richardson has still played just three full NFL games in his young career, but in that time he’s averaging over 26 DraftKings points per contest. Nothing about the Week 2 matchup with the Packers indicates that will change. I’m not sure if the field is worried about chasing last week’s points, but for some reason, Richardson is projecting at sub-5% ownership this week, making him an excellent play (again).
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Stud: Breece Hall ($7,400) New York Jets (-3.5) at Tennessee Titans (41 total)
Assuming McCaffrey indeed misses Week 2, Hall is far-and-away the best raw play on the slate. While the game with the Titans isn’t the best offensive environment, the Jets ran an extremely concentrated offense in Week 1. At halftime in Week 1, only Hall and Garret Wilson ($7,100) had received a carry or catch in New York.
The negative game script and tough matchup with the 49ers front forced the Jets to the air last week, but that’s unlikely to be a problem this time around. New York is favored by a field goal and should give Hall more than the 16 carries he saw in Week 1.
Even if he doesn’t, he’s involved enough in the passing game (six targets on 21 team passing attempts) to be useful in DFS, regardless. He’s a true game-flow-independent player and leads Koerner’s projections in median and ceiling at the position.
Value: Jordan Mason ($5,200) San Francisco 49ers (-5.5) at Minnesota Vikings (46.5 Total)
Mason saw an absurd 28 carries last week in relief of McCaffrey. That game was on Monday night — well after Week 2 DFS salaries came out.
As such, he’s drastically underpriced for his role, even if we’re projecting a higher pass rate from the 49ers in a (on paper) more competitive matchup. Of course, last week’s spread was even closer, and the 49ers dominated there, so there’s no guarantee the Vikings will keep it close.
Mason is far and away the best cash game play on the slate and is the only back with a better Pts/Sal projection than Hall. He’ll be extremely popular in GPPs, which lowers his appeal slightly, but I’ll want to be at least even with the field’s exposure there, if not a bit higher.
Quick Hits
Kyren Williams ($6,800): Concerns over Williams splitting time with Blake Corum ($4,700) proved unfounded in Week 1, with Williams getting 18 of the team’s 20 running back carries (and the other two going to Ronnie Rivers ($4,000). This week looks even better for Williams against a soft Cardinals run defense and without Puka Nakua. LA should skew more run heavy with less options in the passing game, plus a better game script than Week 1 where they trailed much of the way.
J.K. Dobbins ($5,400): It looks to be a fairly even backfield split for the Chargers, with Dobbins handling 10 carries and three targets in Week 1, while Gus Edwards ($5,200) had 11 runs and one target. Dobbins was far more efficient though, turning that into 25.90 DraftKings points compared to just 3.80 for Edwards. That split should skew towards Dobbins at some point if he continues to be that much better. Plus, they have an elite matchup against the Panthers. Carolina ranked 32nd in DVOA against the run last season and has a terrible offense. That should allow the Bolts to play from in front most of the game and lean on their rushing attack.
Zach Charbonnet ($5,800): We could have two injury-related value RBs this week if Kenneth Walker ($6,300) is unable to suit up for Seattle. The ‘Hawks RB1 was a DNP in practice both Wednesday and Thursday. While the Patriots were a pleasant surprise in Week 1, they’re still a bad team. That should provide the optimal game flow for Seattle to lean on their rushing attack.
Editor’s note: Walker was listed as doubtful on Friday.
Isaiah Pacheco ($6,900): Pacheco is probably a touch overpriced for his likeliest outcome on Sunday, considering he saw just 15 carries in the Chiefs Week 1 win over the Ravens. He has upside for a ton more if the Bengals perform as poorly as they did in Week 1. They allowed a 25/120/1 line to Rhamondre Stevenson ($6,200) while playing poorly enough on offense to allow a run-heavy game script from their opponent. It wouldn’t be a surprise if that happened again against the defending champs.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineup using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Stud: CeeDee Lamb ($8,800) Dallas Cowboys (-6) vs. New Orleans Saints (46.5 Total)
Lamb drew 10 targets on 32 Prescott attempts in a mostly non-competitive Week 1 matchup with the Browns. That’s an elite target share, which he now carries into a much better matchup and game environment against the Saints.
Cornerback Marshon Lattimore has been a DNP in practice all week for New Orleans, who weren’t exactly a secondary to avoid even at full strength. The Cowboys switched to a high passing volume attack down the stretch last season thanks to an ineffective ground game — and will likely continue that trend in closer matchups this season.
Thus, the ceiling case for Lamb depends on how competitive New Orleans can keep this one. Their offense looked great in Week 1 against the Panthers, but this is a much tougher test. Because of that dynamic, I prefer playing Lamb in GPPs with a bring-back from the Saints.
Still, his floor is extremely high even in a blowout since he’d likely be a driving force of said blowout. That makes him a cash game must-play. He leads our median and ceiling projections by a comfortable margin.
Value: Cooper Kupp ($7,600) Los Angeles Rams (+1) at Arizona Cardinals (48 Total)
This is a perfect time for my frequent reminder that “value” and “cheap” are not synonymous. Cooper Kupp is a top-five wideout by salary on the Week 2 slate and yet he’s still underpriced.
That’s because fellow target hog Puka Nacua was injured on Sunday Night Football last week after Week 2 salaries came out. In 2022, prior to Nacua’s arrival with the Rams, Cooper Kupp saw 93 targets in the eight full games he played and was a weekly must-play in DFS.
Cupp probably won’t return to quite those heights now that he’s slightly past his prime at age 31. However, he should be the focal point of the passing attack in a high-scoring fast paced game with the Cardinals.
Kupp should be priced around $1,000 higher, all things considered. He leads most projection systems in Pts/Sal this week, including the FantasyLabs Models and THE BLITZ. Kupp is a near-lock for cash games, and a solid one-off for GPPs as well. His teammate Demarcus Robinson ($4,000) is also projecting well on the cheaper side of things.
Quick Hits
Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,100): This is a perfect buy-low spot for the Sun God, who took a back seat to speedster Jameson Williams ($5,300) in Week 1. This is a much better matchup for St. Brown against the Bucs, who tend to play with deep safeties and try to keep the ball in front of them. He trails only Kupp and Lamb in median projections and is an excellent GPP pivot at lower projected ownership.
Chris Godwin ($6,000): The other piece in Bucs-Lions I’m interested in is Godwin, who caught all eight of his targets in a vintage Week 1 performance. His lower aDOT route tree should work better against the Lions defense than those run by Mike Evans ($7,500). Detroit has improved their pass rush considerably, which forces opposing QBs to get the ball out quickly. Picking between Evans and Godwin is always somewhat speculative, of course, but my lean is to Godwin this week.
Deebo Samuel ($6,800): The other beneficiary of McCaffrey’s absence is Samuel, who added eight rushes for 23 yards and a score to his stat line last week. Two of those were in the red zone, and he sees much of the 49ers goal-line work with McCaffrey out. Rostering Samuel and Mason together likely locks up a big chunk of the 49ers’ overall production this week, and San Fran is implied for a top-five team total with a condensed offense.
Malik Nabers ($5,900): Nabers instantly stepped into the WR1 role for the Giants in his NFL debut, with a 100% snap rate in Week 1. He turned that into five catches on seven targets for 66 yards. Now he gets a much better matchup against the Commanders and makes an excellent stacking partner with Daniel Jones.
Allen Lazard ($3,300): Aaron Rodgers’ old buddy Allen Lazard didn’t see his first catch until the second half in Week 1, but he still finished with a 6/89/2 line against the 49ers. Some of that was in garbage time, but he’s still effectively the third option for the Jets. That makes him massively underpriced in a much better matchup against the Titans.
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NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Stud: Sam LaPorta ($6,300) Detroit Lions (-7.5) vs. Tampa Bay Bucs (51.5 total)
I’m taking a bit of an “I know better” stance to the projections this week, which prefer Travis Kelce ($6,200) slightly to LaPorta. The game between the Lions and Bucs has the highest total on the slate, and it’s an excellent buy-low time on the second-year tight end. Plus, it’s a better matchup against Tampa, who’s +2.3 Plus/Minus allowed to the position is far better than the -2.6 allowed by the Bengals.
He saw just five targets last week in a game focused on Jameson Williams and the rushing attack. However, the Bucs scheme that should be beneficial to Amon-Ra St. Brown also helps LaPorta, with plenty of holes underneath and in the middle of the field.
It’s fairly unlikely that both St. Brown and LaPorta will go nuclear this week, but mixing and matching them is a solid strategy. Of course, full-game stacks, including Jared Goff ($6,400) and some Tampa bring-backs, make sense for smaller tournaments.
Value: Colby Parkinson ($3,100) Los Angeles Rams (+1) at Arizona Cardinals (48 Total)
It’s a bit of a crap shoot among the cheaper tight ends this week, with similar projections on Parkinson, Mike Gesicki ($3,100) and Hayden Hurst ($3,000) in the lower end of the price range.
Our projections give a slight nod to Parkinson, who should see an expanded target share due to the injury to Nacua (and starting tight end Tyler Higbee, who’s on the PUP list). Parkinson caught four of five targets for 47 yards last week against the Lions.
Ultimately, one could make a case for any of the tight ends in this price range, though. The best play will come down to if any of them are able to catch a touchdown, which is notoriously hard to predict. For GPPs, I’ll be switching between them, while for cash games, it depends on the rest of my roster construction — I’d prefer not to have three rams if also using Kupp and Kyren, for example.
Quick Hits
Mark Andrews ($5,000): Week 2 is often a game of fading overreactions from Week 1. For example, Mark Andrews taking a backseat to Isaiah Likely ($4,800) in the Ravens offense. The box score favored Likely, but Andrews actually had the higher snap share in Week 1. He’ll have his big weeks, and the most profitable time to bet on them will be at low ownership following a disappointing game.
Brock Bowers ($4,400): The rookie first-round pick was a pleasant surprise in Week 1, bucking the old trend of tight ends taking time to catch up to the NFL game. Perhaps it’s no surprise, as he ran a 4.53 40 at the combine, with his closest player comp being Travis Kelce:
Those are big shoes to fill, but if he ends up having a LaPorta-esque rookie season, we’ll look back at his early season DFS salary as a massive bargain.
GPP Roster Construction
This is a fun week for GPPs, with some obviously strong plays in Kupp, Mason, Hall, and others. History tells us they aren’t all going to make the winning lineup, but choosing who to fade is tricky.
I’ll be locked into the RB tandem of Hall+Mason in a good chunk of my lineup, as there are more strong WR pivots than there are RBs. Of course, adding a third running back — I like Dobbins — will make your lineup more unique, as a good chunk of the field will be playing four wideouts.
The highest total game on the board is Bucs-Lions, which is a bit hard to target for DFS due to the spread-out nature of both offenses, but particularly the favored Lions with the emergence of Jameson Williams. I’ll have some of that game (as outlined in the LaPorta section), but it’s not my top priority.
Giants-Commanders is an ugly game on paper, but it could turn into a shootout. It’s a pairing of bad (or at least inconsistent) quarterbacks against bad defenses, so the range of outcomes is wide. If you can stomach it, the Jones + Nabers + Commanders bring-back should be a unique build that frees up tons of salary elsewhere.
My other priority games are Rams-Cardinals and Saints-Cowboys. Both feature one highly concentrated offense (Rams/Cowboys) and one team that looked surprisingly effective offensively in Week 1. I’m not super confident that either Arizona or New Orleans has another good game offensively, but it wouldn’t shock me either.
For more on my favorite GPP approaches, be sure to check out my SimLabs building blocks article.
Cash Games
After a relatively quiet Week 1 (at least on the main slate), Week 2 feels like an especially busy one for key DFS injuries. Both McCaffrey and Nacua were lost after Week 2 salaries came out, which created massive value for their respective teams.
This isn’t a case of chasing volume on crappy teams either, with the Niners and Rams both featuring top-seven team totals among the 26 teams on the slate.
Therefore, the starting points in cash are fairly obvious, with Kupp and Mason as must-plays and Parkinson and Samuel as fairly obvious options as well.
Elsewhere at running back, Breece Hall should be considered effectively a lock. This seems like a better week for two running backs and four receivers, so Hall + Mason takes care of the position.
At receiver, I want at least one of Lamb and Samuel, with both making it necessary to play a super cheap option. Personally, I like Lazard at just $3,300, but I don’t love having two members of a lower-scoring team in my lineup.
The problem with this approach is it requires a cheap quarterback. The best options available are Daniel Jones or Justin Fields ($5,400), neither of whom inspire much confidence. Paying up for Jayden Daniels feels better but requires giving up one of Deebo or Lamb.
That leaves us with tight end, where I’ll be playing one of the three cheap options mentioned in that section. At defense, the best projecting option is Arizona ($2,300), though that’s a bit uncomfortable if rostering Kupp and Parkinson. As always, cheap tight end and defense are mostly guesses, though, so pick your poison.
