Noche UFC, the UFC’s annual celebration of Mexican Independence Day, goes down this weekend live from Sphere in Las Vegas. The special one-off event features two title fights, including Mexican women’s flyweight champ Alexa Grasso completing her trilogy against Valentina Shevchenko.
Plus, we have a highly anticipated main event between “Suga” Sean O’Malley and Merab Dvalishvili for the men’s bantamweight crowns.
It’s just a 10-fight card, so finding ways to build unique lineups will be key on this small slate.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example. We’ve also added ownership projections by yours truly to help find leverage spots for GPPs.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.
Main Event
Sean O’Malley ($8,500) vs. Merab Dvalishvili ($7,700)
The main event at UFC 306 features what might be the UFC’s biggest star in Sean O’Malley. “Suga” will be attempting to make a second defense of his 135-pound title in an extremely difficult stylistic matchup against Merab Dvalishvili.
This one has been brewing ever since O’Malley took the title from Dvalishvili’s teammate Aljamain Sterling last August. It’s also a great DFS fight. O’Malley has six knockouts in his 10 UFC wins with a high striking rate of 7.63 landed per minute.
On the other side, Dvalshivili lands over six takedowns per 15 minutes, with 11 takedowns in his last five-round fight. He’s arguably the best UFC DFS fighter ever, with two scores north of 160 points in his last four fights.
There’s a case where both fighters get to do their stuff, namely O’Malley racking up strikes between Merab takedowns, with the champ scrambling back to his feet. That gives me some fringe interest to stack this one in GPPs, but it’s a strong stack in cash games due to the upside from both fighters.
If picking between the two, I want to be much heavier on Dvalishvili, who opened as a favorite before public betting on the popular O’Malley flipped the lines. That makes the challenger a solid value, even before considering his style.
Both Sean Zerillo and I are all over “The Machine” here, as we discussed on our UFC Betting Preview Podcast:
Co-Main Event
Alexa Grasso ($8,300) vs. Valentina Shevchenko ($7,900)
The co-main event is an uninterrupted trilogy fight between current champion Alexa Grasso and the woman she took the title from, long-reigning champ Valentina Shevchenko. Grasso won the first fight as around a +600 underdog, then “defended” her title by way of a draw at UFC Noche in 2023.
She’s about five and a half years younger than Shevchenko, which, along with her previous results, puts her on the right side of both rematch trends. Grasso had the bigger moments in the second fight, with a knockdown and a takedown, while Shevchenko controlled most of the minutes.
This is another super close fight, though, without quite as much upside as the main event. Both women topped 90 DraftKings points in their draw, though, so the floor is very high on both sides. In a fight that’s +200 to go all five rounds, this one is a must-stack in cash.
There’s even an argument for stacking one of the two in GPPs, with this one likelier to play out in a way where both fighters put up big scores. I’ll be mixing in an even amount of both in lineups where I pick and choose though.
The Easy Chalk
Raul Rosas ($9,700)
We have yet another card with one standout favorite, whose moneyline and DFS salary are well above the field. This time, it’s Raul Rosas, the UFC wunderkind who fought on the Contender Series prior to his 18th birthday.
He’s got somewhat of a showcase fight against Aoriqileng ($6,500), who’s a fun striker but lacks the grappling chops to keep up with Rosas. “El nino problema” averages over four takedowns per 15 minutes and has finished all three of his UFC wins inside of the first two rounds.
That makes him an ideal DFS fighter, as he can post huge scores by way of quick finishes or pile up takedowns in a longer fight (if his questionable cardio holds up.) I wouldn’t deem him a “must-play” in GPPs, but for cash games, I wouldn’t overthink it.
The Upside Play
Diego Lopes ($8,700)
Diego Lopes had his streak of first-round wins snapped in his last appearance, a strange fight at UFC 303 where he took a new opponent on a one-hour notice. His original opponent was Brian Ortega ($7,500), who he’s now booked to face again at Noche UFC.
Lopes is an extremely fast starter, swarming right out of the gates with heavy punches. He also has elite grappling, and serves as the BJJ coach for fellow UFC 306 fighters Alexa Grasso and Irene Aldana (among others) in Mexico.
It’s the early aggression that makes him so appealing here, though. Ortega seems to be falling apart physically, with a string of injuries in recent fights. I’m not sure he’ll be able to survive an initial onslaught from Lopes. Especially because Ortega typically relies on superior grappling when he gets in trouble on the feet.
He won’t have that as an easy option this time, as I detailed in my betting preview of this fight. That makes Lopes an excellent play with his early-finishing capabilities.
The Value Play
Norma Dumont ($7,800)
Dumont is taking on the aforementioned Irene Aldana ($8,400) in the fight that’s (by far) got the best odds to go to a decision on the card.
Without any major line movement creating moneyline values, that makes her the top value option on the slate almost by default. She’s also a bit cheaper than she normally would be with her near pick ’em odds, thanks to the dearth of close fights on the card.
I expect Dumont to have a considerable size and strength edge over Aldana in this one, which should allow her to work her grappling. A takedown or two makes her a viable cash game play even without picking up the win while getting the victory obviously makes her a strong value.
I don’t have much interest in GPPs, but she’s a strong cash-game salary saver.
The Contrarian Choice
Edgar Chairez ($7,300)
Not counting the few fights with near pick ’em prices, it’s hard to find underdogs to feel good about on this slate. Odds are a few will pull off the upset, though, so it’s worth trying to find them.
My top choice in that respect is Chairez, who’s around +200 for his fight against Josh Van ($8,900). Van is the more skillful all-around fighter — but he’s also stepping back into the cage after being knocked out just two months ago.
It’s probably that Van’s chin isn’t fully recovered yet, or he took some significant time off from training, or both. Van also only accepted this fight about 10 days ago, which further casts doubt on his preparation.
Chairez is an extremely durable fighter who stole the third round from another top prospect (Tatsuro Taira) despite taking that fight on short notice. He could take over late against Van here. At his price point, any win would almost certainly propel him to the optimal lineup as well.
I also covered this fight at the Action Network, so check out the linked article for more on how these fighters match up.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper promo code LABS1 for a $100 deposit match.
The Swing Fight
Manuel Torres ($8,200) vs. Ignacio Bahamondes ($8,000)
Despite being priced as the closest fight on the card, line movement has pushed Manuel Torres to a -130 favorite. He should find himself in a fun fight against Bahamondes, whose ownership should be a bit lower thanks to betting lines moving against him.
Counting the Contender Series, Torres is 4-0 in the Octagon, with every win coming in the very first round. Bahamondes is also a potent finisher, with four of his five UFC victories coming via stoppage. This fight is -400 to end inside the distance, the highest odds on the card.
That makes it extremely appealing — and hard to pick — for DFS. The winner should get there fairly quickly and thus end up with a big score. It’s worth noting that neither man has ever been knocked out, though.
My very slight lean is toward Torres here since his fast starts are extremely valuable for DFS. However, I’ll end up close to even on both fighters since either could end up with a “must-have” score fairly easily.
YOU MAY ALSO LIKE
UFC Vegas 70 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Spann vs. Krylov, More Saturday Fights
UFC Vegas 71 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Blaydes vs. Pavlovich, More Saturday Fights
UFC Atlantic City DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Blanchfield vs. Fiorot, More Saturday Fights
UFC St. Louis DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Lewis vs. Nascimento, More Saturday Fights
