Week 2 presents a 13-game main slate on DraftKings and below, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools to find some of the best NFL DFS leverage targets for Week 2.
Specifically, I will be focusing on players’ ownership projections and Leverage Scores within our FantasyLabs Models to identify these contrarian targets. Leverage Scores are a combination of a player’s projected ceiling and ownership. In other words, a high ceiling combined with a low ownership projection means a high leverage score.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups for single-entry or 3-entry max tournaments and our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments. Our optimizer allows you to create up to 300 lineups with the click of a button.
The Lineup Optimizer has endless customization opportunities.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS High-Leverage Stack
Anthony Richardson ($6,800) + Michael Pittman ($6,600)/Adonia Mitchell ($4,000)
With our projections slating him to be around 5% ownership on DraftKings, Richardson is a must-play for GPPs. The Colts head to Green Bay to face a Packers defense that allowed the seventh-most yards per pass in Week 1 (7.8) and is the fourth worst-graded unit on PFF. Back to full strength after missing most of last year with a shoulder injury, Richardson started his 2024 campaign off strong last week vs. the Texans with 27.08 DraftKings points. The former Florida Gator threw for 212 yards, two touchdowns, and a pick while averaging an elite 11.2 YPA, and he rushed 56 yards and a touchdown on six carries.
Following this effort, Richardson is now amassing 25.14 DraftKings PPG for three full games he has played in the NFL. Furthermore, Richardson is averaging 0.93 DraftKings per dropback over the last two seasons, which ranks first among all quarterbacks by a decent margin. Ranking second in this category is Josh Allen at 0.88. Richardson is truly an elite fantasy asset and getting him at less than $7,000 in a strong matchup and with low expected ownership is a dream come true that we won’t see often.
Pittman’s salary has come down to an affordable level, and pairing the receiver with Richardson is a stack that has slate-winning upside in Week 2. While Pittman had a quiet Week 1 with only 7.1 DraftKings points, he still led the Colts with seven targets. The receiver has been targeted on a team-best 21% of his routes in the three full games Richardson has played with the Colts – including four red-zone targets – and Pittman should shred this Green Bay secondary that ranks 27th in coverage grade on PFF. The veteran is averaging 2.1 more DraftKings PPG on the road for his career – via the Trends Tool – and Pittman is forecasted to be less than 5% owned on DraftKings according to our projections.
If looking to double-stack Richardson or if seeking a cheaper pass-catcher to pair with the quarterback, Mitchell is a sharp choice. The rookie only caught one pass in his NFL debut last week, but Mitchell was targeted on 27% of his routes while running a route on 75% of Richardson’s dropbacks, including two targets over 20 yards. Mitchell and Richardson nearly connected on multiple long touchdowns, and Mitchell’s 17.6 aDOT ranked ninth among wideouts for Week 1. Additionally, the rookie finished the week fifth in averaged targeted air yards, via NFL’s Next Gen Stats. After their many missed opportunities last week, Richardson and Mitchell should redeem themselves and hook up on at least one long ball this weekend. Mitchell’s ceiling is in no way reflected in his low $4,000 salary and in our projections, the rookie is expected to be only around 1% owned on DraftKings.
NFL DFS Running Back Leverage Pick
Derrick Henry ($6,700)
This is a terrific time to buy low on Henry, with our projections slating him to be around 7% owned on DraftKings. Henry finished a decent 10.6 DraftKings in his Ravens’ debut vs. the Chiefs last week, but the reason for his lack of popularity is that the veteran was out-snapped by Justice Hill in the loss.
Henry logged only 46.3% of the snaps, but this was a product of Baltimore trailing for most of this contest and Hill seeing the passing down work as the Ravens tried to come back against Kansas City. In a total opposite situation this Sunday vs. the Raiders, Henry should see most of the snaps and have a vintage performance. The back led Baltimore’s backfield with 13 carries vs. the Chiefs, compared to only one for Hill, and with the Ravens as 8.5-point home favorites over Las Vegas this Sunday, Baltimore should deploy a run-heavy game plan, and they should feed Henry the rock. Las Vegas surrendered 161 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown to the Chargers’ backfield last week, putting the Raiders at an average of 6.7 yards per rush allowed, which ranks second in the NFL after Week 1.
Henry is averaging nearly 3.0 more DraftKings PPG for his career when competing as a favorite – via the Trends Tool – and as a Titan last season, he garnered 20.5 carries per game in Tennessee’s six wins of the year. Furthermore, Henry’s prop lines on the DraftKings Sportsbook are very encouraging, with his O/U for rushing yards set at 72.5 and with him being a heavy -180 favorite to score a touchdown, which are the third-best anytime touchdown odds on the DraftKings Sportsbook for Week 2 as of Thursday evening. At this sub $7,000 salary, Henry is one of the top GPP plays on the board.
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Leverage Pick
Ja’Marr Chase ($7,800)
After missing most of training camp due to his holdout, Chase saw a lighter workload than usual in Week 1, with him playing 84% of the snaps. The receiver has been a full participant in practice this week, and Chase should get back to a full workload this Sunday vs. the Chiefs. However, the Bengals are likely to be without Tee Higgins (hamstring) for the second straight game, as he has yet to practice as of Thursday. In the two full games Cincinnati played with Joe Burrow active but Higgins inactive last season, Chase saw terrific usage, with a target on 27% of his routes. After ranking second in pass rate over expectation last season, the Bengals led the league in the metric in Week 1, and they should continue to be a pass-first offense this Sunday as six-point underdogs vs. Kansas City. This game’s total is the third highest on the board (48 points) and Chase is producing 21.3 DraftKings PPG for his career when competing as an underdog in a total of 45 points or greater (14 games), via the Trends Tool.
Chase is extremely motivated to prove his worth right now as he seeks a lucrative contract extension with the Bengals, and with our projections forecasting him to be only around 10% owned on DraftKings, Chase could be a key to winning GPPs this Sunday.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineup using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Leverage Pick
Brock Bowers ($4,400)
After being selected 14th overall by the Raiders in this past NFL draft, Bowers had a strong NFL debut last Sunday vs. the Vikings, catching six of his eight targets for 58 yards, resulting in 11.8 DraftKings points. Bowers’ eight targets led the Raiders at a 25% target share, and he ran a route on 78% of his team’s dropbacks, with 20 of those routes coming from the slot. Las Vegas finished fifth in pass rate over expectation in their Week 1 loss to Minnesota, and they will likely be forced into another pass-heavy gameplan this Sunday as 8.5-point road underdogs vs. the Ravens. The Raiders should be playing from behind for most of this contest, and Baltimore’s defense looked susceptible vs. the Chiefs last Thursday, allowing the second-most yards per pass for Week 1 (10.0).
Given the high draft pick Las Vegas used on Bowers, the rookie should continue to see great usage all season, especially with Garden Minshew under center. In his 13 starts with the Colts last season, Minshew targeted tight ends 19% of the time. Bowers brings elite speed for a tight end, and he has the potential to lead his position in fantasy scoring for this slate, but the rookie is only the eighth-most-expensive tight end on DraftKings. This may be the cheapest we see Bowers for the rest of the season, and he is a player you must have exposure to, with our projections expecting him to be only around 5% on DraftKings. Bowers is a terrific standalone option, but he is also an intriguing bring-back option if rostering Henry to create a mini game stack for the Ravens vs. Raiders.
Note: player and ownership projections may change leading up to lock. Be sure to check out the Player Models for any changes.
