Nailing the running back spots is essential for constructing a solid DFS lineup. It’s a bit easier to project than the receivers, where touchdowns and big plays are going to result in weekly variance. The workloads for the top running backs are much more stable, so they’re typically more consistent fantasy producers.
However, that also results in some of the heaviest chalk you’ll see across the industry. How do you handle those players each week?
In this piece, I highlight running backs who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
Top NFL DFS Cash Game Options
Jordan Mason ($5,200 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel)
The Christian McCaffrey fiasco was one of the biggest fantasy events of Week 1. The consensus No. 1 pick in fantasy leagues was fully expected to play on Monday Night Football… until he was ultimately ruled out. That left fantasy managers with little room to maneuver—most of their lineup had already locked—and forced them to take a zero.
McCaffrey’s loss was Mason’s gain. He absolutely annihilated the Jets’ vaunted defense, rushing for 147 yards and a touchdown on 28 carries. He averaged 5.3 yards per attempt, and the combination of the 49ers’ offensive line, Kyle Shanahan’s elite system, and Mason’s ability resulted in 25.2 DraftKings points.
McCaffrey’s status is up in the air for Week 2. The early reports said that McCaffrey was unlikely to play again in Week 2, but McCaffrey personally told reporters on Wednesday that he’s “ready to go.” It remains to be seen who will win out in the end, but expect the 49ers to exercise caution with their star running back early in the year.
If he’s ruled out again, it’s really tough to avoid Mason at his current price tags. Because they played on Monday Night Football, DraftKings and FanDuel did not have a chance to price him up correctly. He easily paces the position in terms of projected Plus/Minus, making him a slam-dunk cash game option.
Breece Hall ($7,400 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel)
While Mason is the top value at the position, Hall is the clear top choice from an upside standpoint. He leads all players in both median and ceiling projection by a comfortable margin, and he was heavily involved in the Jets’ game plan in Week 1. He racked up 84% of the snaps, 89% of the carries, and 21% of the targets in the loss to San Francisco. If the game didn’t turn into a blowout at the end, it’s possible he could’ve seen an even larger workload.
Hall’s matchup vs. the Titans isn’t ideal—they were significantly better against the run than the pass last season—but it’s a rare spot in his career where he’ll take the field as a favorite. He’s only been favored in four career contests, and he’s averaged 22.03 DraftKings points with a 75% Consistency Rating in that span (per the Trends tool). That includes a massive 43.1 DraftKings points against the Commanders on Christmas Eve last season.
Hall should see more spots where he’s a favorite this season as long as Aaron Rodgers doesn’t suffer another season-ending injury. That’s great news for fantasy players.
Kyren Williams ($6,800 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel)
There was some concern about what Williams’ role would look like after breaking out in 2023. There were reports that he would play on special teams—which could hurt his involvement on offense—while the team used a Day 2 pick on running back Blake Corum.
Turns out, those concerns were way overblown.
Williams operated like a clear workhorse in Week 1, playing on 91% of the Rams’ offensive snaps and racking up 78% of the team’s rushing attempts. That included 100% of the short yardage and third-down work, which can be extremely valuable. Catching passes and scoring touchdowns is the easiest path to fantasy points for a running back.
Williams could be even busier this week vs. the Cardinals. Puka Nacua was placed on IR, meaning the Rams will be without his services for at least the next four weeks. In his stead, the Rams could opt to lean on the run game a bit heavier.
If that happens, the Cardinals are a great spot for Williams to feast. They were 27th last year in rushing EPA against, and they allowed the most PPR points per game to the position.
Now available: our NFL DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
Top NFL DFS Tournament Options
Isiah Pacheco ($6,900 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel)
The Chiefs’ passing attack should be a popular stack in Week 2, with Patrick Mahomes currently expected to be the highest-owned quarterback on the slate. That makes pivoting to their run game an appealing option for tournaments.
Pacheco wasn’t uber-efficient vs. the Ravens, averaging just three yards per carry, but he made up for it with a touchdown and some work as a pass-catcher. The Ravens have an elite defense, so it’s not surprising that he struggled a bit.
His matchup vs. the Bengals should be a lot friendlier. The Bengals lost defensive tackle D.J. Reader in the offseason, and they’ve been one of the worst teams in football against the run with Reader off the field over the past two seasons. Those struggles continued into 2024, with Rhamondre Stevenson gauging the Bengals for 120 yards and a touchdown.
The Chiefs are also favored by nearly a full touchdown, so this matchup could set up a favorable game script as well. There’s ultimately lots to like about Pacheco in this spot, particularly at just $7,400 on FanDuel.
Jahmyr Gibbs ($6,600 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel)
Gibbs stands out as more of a DraftKings tournament option. His role in Week 1 was largely unchanged from what it was as a rookie, which was slightly disappointing. David Montgomery is clearly going to continue to siphon off touches, and he easily led the backfield in carries vs. the Rams.
Still, Gibbs managed to post excellent fantasy numbers despite Monty’s presence last year, so there’s no reason he can’t do it again. That’s especially true in PPR formats like DraftKings.
While Gibbs’ rushing numbers were disappointing, he was a featured part of their passing attack vs. the Rams. He had a 22% target share, and he was targeted on a whopping 33% of his routes run. Add in a rushing touchdown, and Gibbs finished with 17.4 DraftKings points despite a pedestrian 40 rushing yards.
This is another game where the game script could also be a positive. The Lions are up to 7.5-point favorites vs. the Buccaneers, making them the second-largest favorites on the slate. Gibbs has only played three games as a favorite of at least a touchdown, and he’s scored 32.9, 21.5, and 11.3 DraftKings points. He clearly has some upside in the game with the highest total of the week.
Derrick Henry ($6,700 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel)
Henry appeared to be in a perfect spot to feast last week, taking on a Chiefs’ defense that has been awful against the run for half a decade. Instead, the team opted to have Lamar Jackson carry the rock 16 times. Henry did manage to find the endzone, but his 13 carries and 46 yards were both disappointing.
Henry should get a bigger chance to eat in Week 2. The Ravens are 8.5-point favorites vs. the Raiders, and Jackson shouldn’t be asked to run as much in a game they’re expected to win comfortably. That should result in more carries for the Big Dog.
As far as RB carries went, Henry absolutely dominated in Week 1. Justice Hill was the only other back to record a carry, and he only had one. If the position group as a whole has more touches this Sunday, Henry should be the clear beneficiary.
Henry’s track record as a massive favorite is elite. He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +6.86 in 10 games as a favorite of at least a touchdown. That’s on DraftKings, where Henry is typically a worse play because of his lack of pass-catching upside. The numbers are even better on FanDuel, with Henry’s average Plus/Minus jumping to +8.34.
Add in a matchup vs. a Raiders squad that allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing RBs last season, and the Big Dog makes for an elite bounce-back candidate.
Contrarian NFL DFS Tournament Options With Upside
Jerome Ford ($6,300 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel)
Ford isn’t garnering much attention this week, but he should be on FanDuel. He has the third-highest projected Plus/Minus on that site, sandwiched in between Hall and Williams.
Ford will eventually have to cede the RB reigns back to Nick Chubb, but he’s the man in Cleveland for the time being. He handled 86% of the team’s carries in Week 1, and he saw a healthy 18% target share.
His matchup is also miles better than it was last week vs. the Cowboys. The Browns were out of that game really early, but the Jaguars are just margin home favorites. They also allowed the 12th-most PPR points to opposing RBs last season.
Jonathan Taylor ($7,700 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel)
Taylor is the most expensive RB on DraftKings and second-most on FanDuel, and most people are going to opt for Hall instead. That’s definitely the correct move for cash games, but there’s a case to be made for pivoting to Taylor in tournaments.
Taylor couldn’t get anything going vs. the Texans in Week 1, but his profile remains elite: 95% snap share, 84% carry share, 88% route participation. Not many running backs are on the field as much as him, which is going to result in some huge performances.
The Colts are also road favorites against the Packers, who will be starting Malik Willis at quarterback in place of the injured Jordan Love. For his career, Willis has averaged a ghastly 3.2 adjusted yards per attempt with zero touchdown passes and three interceptions. If he hasn’t improved, it’s possible that the Colts can build a comfortable lead after playing from behind last week.
J.K. Dobbins ($5,400 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel)
Dobbins was one of the biggest surprises in Week 1, rushing for 135 yards and a touchdown on just 10 carries. That production feels a bit fluky, so chasing it might not be the most appealing option.
However, Dobbins checks a lot of boxes this week. He’s playing for a head coach who absolutely loves to run the football. His team is favored by nearly a touchdown. His only real competition for touches averaged just 2.4 yards per carry last week.
Additionally, Dobbins is not expected to be overly popular. He’s projected for less than seven percent ownership on DraftKings, but he’s showing up in the optimal lineup in closer to eight percent of simulations.
Aaron Jones ($6,100 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel)
The Vikings cruised to a victory over the Giants in Week 1, and Jones did what he basically always does: provide quiet, undervalued production. He racked up 6.7 yards per attempt on his 14 carries, and he also found the end zone. Jones has averaged more than five yards per carry for his career, so he’s an extremely efficient runner. He simply hasn’t had bell-cow usage while operating as part of a committee in Green Bay.
It’s possible the Vikings choose to use him a bit more, although Ty Chandler is going to steal some of his work. However, Jones did get 100% of the carries from inside the five-yard line, which is a change from his role in Green Bay. If he can add more touchdowns to his already elite efficiency, he has the chance for an excellent season.
