The 2024 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs kicks off today with 400 miles at Atlanta Motor Speedway.
Atlanta is a 1.5-mile track that was repaved and reconfigured in 2022 and also uses the drafting package like superspeedway tracks Talladega and Daytona.
With that said, often we’ll get one main dominator at Atlanta, so we should bump up the most likely dominator candidates just a bit in our minds compared to what we’d normally play them from a similar starting spot at Daytona or Talladega.
Before we jump into my picks, don’t forget all my NASCAR projections can be found in the NASCAR Models on FantasyLabs, complete with floor, ceiling, median, and ownership projections.
Let’s not skip the best part — my Perfect% metric — a metric that tells you how often certain racers appear in the optimal lineup when running 10,000 race simulations.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Here are my NASCAR DFS picks for the Quaker State 400 at Atlanta Motor Speedway.
Quaker State 400 DraftKings DFS Cash Game Strategy
Like superspeedways, stacking the back in cash games is the way to go. It’s going to be hell trying to predict which individual driver is today’s dominator, so the best way to raise our floor is to use drivers starting at the rear of the field.
First and foremost, that means Denny Hamlin ($10,000), who starts dead last after engine issues in qualifying.
Erik Jones ($6900) is another solid cash-game play starting 33rd. Jones has led multiple times at Atlanta and is always competitive at superspeedways.
Atlanta’s most recent winner, Daniel Suarez ($7500), starts 30th and has four top-six finishes in five starts at Atlanta in its current form.
Quaker State 400 DraftKings DFS Tournament Strategy and Picks
My top dominator picks for this race are:
- Ryan Blaney
- Joey Logano
- William Byron
- Austin Cindric
- Chase Elliott
- Michael McDowell
- Todd Gilliland
All of these drivers, with the exception of Elliott start inside the top nine and have shown propensity to lead at superspeedway races over the last year, or at Atlanta in its current configuration. Now, that doesn’t mean we want to play multiple of these drivers (unless Elliott is involved), but we should at least give these guys a slight bump up while sticking to either zero or one non-Elliott driver from this group for the vast majority of lineups. At the very most, two of the non-Elliott drivers should be rostered in a small percentage of a multi-entry portfolio.
Brad Keselowski ($10,300) is another top-level driver I really like here. He rolls off 19th and should be extra agressive knowing this is one of his best shots to win to advance to the next round of the playoffs. His teammate Chris Buescher ($9000) will certainly look to hook up with him late in the race and give his boss a push to the win, so bump up their correlation.
Shane van Gisbergen ($5800) is likely to go overlooked starting 28th, but if he’s able to avoid the likely wrecks, he’s in a prime spot to be low owned given he doesn’t start in the 30s like other drivers in his salary range. SVG did exactly this, finishing third at Atlanta in the first Xfinity race there this year.
23XI/JGR Stacks: Toyota didn’t have a great qualifying effort, but look for them to hook up and get to the front with every Joe Gibbs and 23XI driver except Bubba Wallace in the playoffs. Wallace himself, however, is a great drafting-track racer, and he should be in the Toyota stacks as well. Bump the correlation up between Wallace, Hamlin, Tyler Reddick, Martin Truex Jr., Christopher Bell, and Ty Gibbs. Each one of them starts 20th or worse, so there’s a ton of place-differential potential here.
Quaker State 400 DraftKings DFS Paul Menard Pick of the Week
Ross Chastain ($8000) will probably go overlooked for all of the Toyota drivers starting 20th or worse, but Ross wants a win this year after missing out on the playoffs for the first time with Trackhouse.
His teammate Daniel Suarez won here earlier this year, and Ross himself has had some close calls at Atlanta as well as a win at Talladega in the Next Gen car.
I think he’ll be far too underutilized for his potential upside with so many big names starting behind him.