NFL DFS Picks: Week 1 Main Slate DraftKings Breakdown

Football is Back! Week 1 features a 12-game main slate that kicks off at 1:00 p.m. ET.

In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the DFS slate.

Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.

Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.

You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:

NFL DFS Quarterback Picks

Stud: Josh Allen ($8,000) Buffalo Bills (-6.5) vs. Arizona Cardinals (47.5 Total)

Josh Allen is a classic “pay up to be contrarian” play on the Week 1 main slate. With cheaper quarterbacks drawing most of the attention, Allen’s ownership projections are in the mid-single-digit range, placing him outside of the top five.

That’s despite having the highest median and ceiling projections on the slate — and despite being Josh Allen. He was the overall QB1 in 2023 and has been an elite weekly option for a few years now. Buffalo is a bit weaker in terms of weaponry this season, but Allen provides enough with his legs (542 yards/15 touchdowns last season) to more than make up for it.

Buffalo has the highest Vegas total on the slate at 29 points, with Allen likely to account for almost all of the scoring. He’s both the quarterback and the de facto goal-line running back, a role unlikely to change with 190-pound James Cook ($6,900) as the lead back.

It’s tricky to build around Allen, both because of the lack of an obvious stack and his salary. However, his rushing production makes him a fine one-off play, with the opposing Cardinals having plenty of logical bring-backs.

Value: Anthony Richardson ($6,300) Indianapolis Colts (+3) vs. Houston Texans (48.5 total)

The most popular QB on the slate should be Richardson. He trails only Allen in median projection but is just the 7th-most-expensive player at the position. That makes him the Pts/Sal leader and a fairly obvious cash game play.

Richardson averaged over 23 points across his three healthy contests last year, with elite rushing production driving most of his value. It’s reasonable to expect improved passing numbers from Richardson in Year 2 of his career as he gets up to speed with the NFL game and concepts.

This might also be the slate’s best game environment. Houston has an explosive offense, and both teams play at a fast pace. The Colts ranked 1st in seconds/snap last season, with Houston checking in at sixth. Richardson’s dual-threat ability makes him fairly game-flow-independent, as he should see some designed runs with the Colts leading or extra dropbacks if playing from behind.

Like Allen, Richardson is somewhat tricky to stack (depending on the health of his receivers) but could be played “naked” in GPPs thanks to his rushing production. Regardless of how you approach him in GPPs, he’s pretty clearly the best cash game play on the slate as well.

Quick Hits

Daniel Jones ($5,400): Jones is a far better fantasy quarterback than real life player, thanks to his solid rushing production. He’s playing for his job as the Giants host the Vikings, but he finally has at least one competent receiver (rookie Malik Nabers ($5,900) in the passing game. Jones wouldn’t need to do a ton at his price tag, but he’s flashed a surprisingly high ceiling in the past. He’s worth some GPP exposure with Nabers and a Vikings bring-back.

Caleb Williams ($5,900): There’s a good chance we won’t see Williams below $6,000 on DraftKings anytime in the next decade. He was the top overall pick in the 2023 draft while coming into a remarkably solid situation in Chicago. The Bears have an embarrassment of talent at wide receiver, with rookie Rome Odunze ($4,000) joining offseason additions DJ Moore ($6,500) and Keenan Allen ($6,900). Plus, running back De’Andre Swift ($6,000) is no slouch in the passing game. I found myself struggling to pick between the Bears’ weapons when building lineups this week — which tells me the answer might just be to roster their QB.

CJ Stroud ($7,500): It’s hard to click Stroud over Richardson, given the higher salary and lower rushing upside. However, it’s a good game environment for him, too. He also has plenty of options at wideout, with Stefon Diggs ($6,700) joining an already strong cast. Stroud will also be a bit under the radar here with Richardson drawing most of the ownership, making him a sneaky way to attack this game.

NFL DFS Running Back Picks

Stud: Bijan Robinson ($7,700) Atlanta Falcons (-3.5) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (42 total)

It was a fairly disappointing rookie season for the ultra-talented Robinson, who the Falcons drafted in the top 10 then proceeded to barely use. He was explosive when he did get the ball, ranking 13th in yards per carry and throwing in 8.4 yards per reception.

The new regime in Atlanta brings plenty of optimism that Bijan will see a bigger chunk of the looks. Atlanta cleaned out last year’s coaching staff, with new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson coming from the Rams. Los Angeles has typically fed their featured back plenty of looks, even with less talented options than Robinson.

Plus, Robinson has a solid matchup as a home favorite against the Steelers, who were 13th in DVOA against the run in 2023. Pittsburgh’s defensive focus will likely be shutting down the passing game, giving plenty of room for Robinson to work.

Robinson isn’t a “must play” by any stretch at his salary, given the uncertainty around his role. However, he has a massive ceiling and leads the slate in median projection.

Value

Chuba Hubbard ($5,300) Carolina Panthers (+4) at New Orleans Saints (41.5 total)

Carolina drafted Jonathan Brooks to be the lead back this season, but he’s currently on the PUP list and will be out at least through Week 4. That leaves the Panthers fairly thin at running back, with Hubbard the listed starter.

For what it’s worth, Carolina fed Hubbard 20 carries per game from Week 12 on last season, with two targets per contest for good measure. They clearly trust him to handle a heavy workload and should rely on the running game in a likely low-scoring affair against the Saints on Sunday.

The ceiling for Hubbard is fairly limited, thanks to the game environment, but it’s rare to get a player with 20-touch upside at Hubbard’s salary. That gives him a very solid cash-game floor. Hubbard is a top-three Pts/SAl option at the position and the cheapest player I’d consider for cash games.

Quick Hits

Jonathan Taylor ($7,800): Taylor is an interesting GPP pivot since he provides leverage against both Anthony Richardson and Bijan Robinson. He’s $100 more expensive than the latter while projecting slightly worse — but at roughly half the ownership. If the touchdowns in Indy come from Taylor instead of Richardson, he could be a slate-breaker at low-ownership

Rachaad White ($6,300): If I asked you to name the three backs who saw the most carries in 2023 (and you hadn’t just read this headline), you probably wouldn’t include Rachaad White on that list. But you’d be wrong, as he tied Christian McCaffrey and trailed only Derrick Henry last year. White also ranked top-five in receptions at the position last year, with Tampa doing little to indicate that will change. Opportunity is king in fantasy, and White should have plenty of it. He leads our projections in Pts/Sal.

De’Von Achane ($6,800): The other side of the volume coin is Achane, who was a relevant fantasy option despite seeing just 103 carries in 11 games played last year. He averaged nearly eight yards per carry and added eight touchdowns, absurd efficiency stats. He could be a bit more involved in his sophomore season — or continue his outlier efficiency. Either way, he needs to be in your player pool as a home favorite against Jacksonville.

Alvin Kamara ($6,700): The days of Kamara as an elite fantasy option are long over, but he could still be viable in the right matchup, like when his team is a four-point favorite against last year’s 32nd-ranked run defense in the Panthers. Expect New Orleans to lean on the ground game in Week 1 — just don’t be surprised if Taysom Hill ($4,300) or Jamaal Williams ($4,800) vultures a score.

Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineup using the power of simulation:

NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks

Stud: Tyreek Hill ($8,700) Miami Dolphins (-3.5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (49 total)

Tyreek Hill is the rare player capable of posting a “have to have it” score regardless of his price tag. He broke the 30-point mark six times in 16 games last season, including a 47.5-point performance in Week 1 of 2023.

Hill led the league in yards and touchdowns last season despite missing a game (and large chunks of a few others) with no reason to believe he’ll slow down this year. It’s a solid game environment in Miami, with the highest total on the slate and an opposing offense capable of pushing the Dolphins.

Predicting Hill’s blowup weeks is tricky, as they can happen at any time. However, he’s a terrifying fade, as missing out on the big weeks leaves you well behind the competition. For cash games, I’ll be locking in Hill and his position-best median projection. For GPPs, I’ll likely be overweight the field by a bit while mixing in exposure to the other wideouts in his price range.

Value: Andre Iosivas ($3,000) Cincinnati Bengals (-8) vs. New England Patriots

The Bengals receiving corps is giving us our first real injury-driven value situation of the season. WR1 Ja’Marr Chase ($7,800) just reported to the team a few days ago, while No. 2 option Tee Higgins ($6,100) has been downgraded to doubtful.

That should leave plenty of targets to go around, but figuring out their distribution is a bit trickier. Iosivas is listed as the WR3 on the Bengals depth chart, but Trenton Irwin ($3,900) is the direct backup to Higgins.

With Chase working up to speed, it’s likely that both players see an increase in targets. For what it’s worth, Tyler Boyd (who was the WR3 on last year’s depth chart) saw 30 targets in four games, with Higgins inactive in 2023.

That points to Iosivas getting the bulk of the extra work, and he leads our projections in Pts/Sal. I’ll be looking his way in cash games but mixing in Trenton Irwin for GPPs, assuming Higgins does miss the game.

Quick Hits

CeeDee Lamb ($8,900): Lamb is another “pay up to be contrarian” option on the Week 1 slate, with a slightly higher salary than Hill and worse projections. Lamb was the overall WR1 last season (albeit with one more game played than Hill) but has a tougher matchup against the Browns. Still, he has slate-breaking upside and is worth pivoting from Hill in a chunk of your lineups.

Justin Jefferson ($8,400): The case for Jefferson is similar to Lamb’s, albeit with a lower salary and better game environment. That’s mostly balanced out by likely having worse quarterback play, as Sam Darnold ($5,200) is under center for Minnesota. It might not matter, though; Jefferson dropped 30 with Nick Mullens under center in Week 17 last season. He trails only Hill and Lamb in median and ceiling projection.

Drake London: ($6,000): The optimism around Bijan Robinson extends to London, who was also oddly underutilized under Arthur Smith. Improved coaching and quarterback play could do wonders for the former top-10 pick, who has the talent to put up WR1 numbers. I don’t love the matchup with Pittsburgh — I’m personally rooting for a bad game at high ownership, so we can get him cheaper next week — but he should be on your radar.

Rome Odunze ($4,000): Of the three receivers drafted in the top 10 this year, Odunze is by far the cheapest. He also might have the best quarterback play with Caleb Williams, as Malik Nabers ($5,900) is saddled with Daniel Jones, and Marvin Harrison Jr. ($7,200) has a rushing QB in Kyler Murray ($6,400). Odunze has plenty of target competition but doesn’t need a ton to pay off his salary. He was my preferred value option for cash games before the Bengals news and is still worth considering as a salary-saver.

Mike Evans ($7,300) and Chris Godwin ($5,800): There was a time when one of Evans or Godwin was a near must on a weekly basis. That’s not the case anymore, but they’ll still have their moments. It’s an ideal matchup with Washington, who ranked 32nd in DVOA against the pass last season. I’m never confident picking between the two, though at cost I prefer Godwin this week. Either way, both should be in your player pool.

Christian Kirk ($5,500): With Calvin Ridley ($5,800) in Tennessee, Kirk should be the Jaguars WR1 for the time being. Rookie Brian Thomas ($4,700) will likely eventually take over that role, but he profiles more as a big-play threat. Kirk should see plenty of looks in a high-scoring Jags-Dolphins game, making him a strong value at $5,500 and an excellent bring-back for Tyreek Hill or De’Von Achane lineups.

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NFL DFS Tight End Picks

Stud: Trey McBride ($6,100) Arizona Cardinals (+6.5) at Buffalo Bills (47.5 total)

Long-time “value play” standout Trey McBride has permanently graduated to the stud section after breaking out at the midway point of last season. In the final 10 games of his rookie campaign, he posted double-digit points seven times and topped 20 four times.

Now he’s the most expensive tight end on the slate, so he’ll need to clear the 20-point mark to be worth his salary. With that said, he had a full offseason to build chemistry with Kyler Murray ($6,400), and should be the primary target over the middle of the field with Rondale Moore no longer on the team.

There’s a bit more target competition in the form of Marvin Harrison, but his route tree shouldn’t overlap too much with McBride. If you can find the salary, paying up for McBride at low ownership could be a solid differentiator in one of the best game environments on the slate.

Value: Kyle Pitts ($4,600) Atlanta Falcons (-3.5) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (42 total)

Here we go again. Another offseason, another round of excitement about Kyle Pitts, who thus far has failed to live up to his hype. Pitts has had his moments, of course, but the former #4 pick has been largely a disappointment.

Still, he’s had to deal with awful quarterback play and coaching, so it hasn’t all been on him. For many of the same reasons that Bijan Robinson and Drake London look like solid plays this week, Pitts also stands out. If anything, the case for Pitts is stronger given Kirk Cousins’ ($6,100) history of turning tight ends into (fantasy) stars.

He’s in a weird spot salary-wise this week, as he isn’t quite “cheap,” but he’s not priced as one of the top plays on the slate. However, his upside is every bit as high as the top-tier players at the position, making him a big value. He leads the position in Pts/Sal, though he’s a somewhat scary cash game play.

Quick Hits

Evan Engram ($5,500): Another trivia question you’d probably get wrong: who led all tight ends in target share in 2023? The answer is, of course, Evan Engram, who also led the position with 114 catches. They were mostly low-value receptions thanks to his pitiful aDOT of five yards, but catches are important on full-PPR DraftKings. He has some touchdown-driven upside in what should be a high-scoring game, plus a solid volume-based floor.

Taysom Hill ($4,300): A big part of me wishes Hill were only eligible at QB, so we wouldn’t have the random weeks where he breaks the slate. He’s still listed at TE though, and he should get a few carries, pass attempts, and targets on a semi-random basis. He’s cheap enough this week that a touchdown (through any of those methods) probably gets him to a winning lineup. He might even be the Saints’ primary goal-line back this season.

GPP Roster Construction

Week 1 is always tough from a GPP standpoint, as there’s so much we don’t know. Sure, we can rely on Vegas totals as a starting point, but even if we get the right games, targeting the right players is tricky.

My favorite spots to build around are Bills and Colts, and Jaguars-Dolphins. In the former, pivoting to Josh Allen (with or without a pass catcher) and/or Jonathan Taylor is a great way to get leverage against Anthony Richardson teams. Allen and the Bills typically stay aggressive even with a big lead, so it’s not hard to see him outperforming Richardson in a blowout.

In the other game, both quarterbacks are projecting for fairly low ownership despite skill position players drawing more attention. That tells me that full tacks should be somewhat unique, with most lineups looking to pick off individual big games.

That’s a tremendous opportunity for GPPs, given the slate-leading 49 total. The obvious answer is probably Tua/Hill/Achane + a Jags pass catcher, but flipping that and just using Hill or Achance with a Jags stack could be interesting. Or getting really crazy and using Jaylen Waddle ($6,300).

Outside of those games, the Bears and Falcons are both low-total teams who have the potential to break out this year. It’s not an ideal environment for either, but if we wait for it to happen, we’ll be too late.

Cash Games

Much of the cash game discussion will come down to the Bengals wide receiver situation. It looks like a fairly low-scoring game against the Patriots, but a near-minimum-priced wide receiver in a Joe Burrow offense is effectively a free square.

Assuming we get that value, I consider both Tyreek Hill and Anthony Richardson must plays. There are plenty of ways to take the third receiver spot, with Drake London, Christian Kirk, and Rome Odunze (among others) all making sense at their respective price points.

Running back gets tricky, as there’s nobody that feels like a true “must play.” That also means going 4WR/2RB is a fine strategy this week, where often three RBs are the better cash game build. Depending on salary, my favorite choices are Bijan Robinson, Chuba Hubbard, and Rachaad White. However, there are five backs with identical Pts/Sal scores behind White, so it’s a bit of a crap shoot.

At tight end, Pitts is probably my first choice, but only if fading one of London or Bijan. Rostering three Falcons when they’re implied for just 23 points is a tough sell. Otherwise, I like Engram if you have the salary or any number of $3,000-$4,000 players who have similar Pts/Sal projection.

The obvious choice for D/ST is Washington ($2,500). They’re tied for the lead in sack projection in our models while just $100 more than the cheapest option. I’ll be filling in the defense spot last, though, based on the highest-projected unit I can afford.