NFL DFS Trenches Report: Finding an Edge for Week 1

Projecting line play — or the line’s impact on fantasy scoring — is one of the more challenging tasks in all of DFS.

While quantitative measures exist, they can be lacking to an extent. On the player level, grading services like Pro Football Focus are notoriously challenged with offensive line play. It’s difficult to know which member of a line blew an assignment, for example.

Things are a bit easier on the team level, as assessing the unit’s overall success is more practical.

However, we’ll still be taking a glance at qualitative sources. Including Action Network’s Brandon Anderson ranking all 32 NFL offensive lines. On the defensive side, PFF’s defensive line rankings will be the main source.

We also have projected sacks in our NFL Player Models.

The Data

Starting next week, we’ll have a table including the combined adjusted line yards and pressure rates for every matchup on the main slate. This will give an at-a-glance look at the strength of the matchup for both the rushing and passing offenses in every game.

That can be misleading in Week 1, as teams can make major improvements or regress over the course of the off-season. Therefore, in Week 1, we’ll stick to qualitative measures for the analysis.

Keep in mind that the aforementioned data doesn’t account for matchups until Week 5. Until then, we’ll continue to use preseason evaluations as well as hard data — with the latter being potentially inlfuenced by a very good (or bad) matchup early on.

Strong Offensive Line Matchups

Indianapolis Colts OL (#3 In Anderson’s Rankings) vs. Houston Texans DL (#10 PFF)

Only two of Anderson’s top-five units are in play on the main slate, with the remaining three featured in primetime games. One of those is the Colts, who are returning all five offensive line starters and are one of the biggest risers in Anderson’s ranks.

Given the collaborative nature of offensive line play, that level of continuity is extremely important. Especially when the five returning players include three players who graded inside the top 10 at their positions in PFF’s grades. That doesn’t include elite guard Quenton Nelson, who had a down year by PFF grades but was a Pro Bowler in 2023.

They don’t have an easy matchup against the Texans defensive front anchored by Will Anderson, but it’s not an especially difficult one. Houston’s line looks better against the pass than the run, which should give plenty of rushing lanes for Jonathan Taylor ($7,800).

Taylor is probably the big fantasy takeaway here, as the Colts are slight underdogs, and the game should stay close enough for a run-first approach. Anthony Richardson ($6,300) could also benefit though. Pressure off the edge, but a weak interior might be a perfect recipe for a running quarterback to find escape lanes in this one.

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Pittsburgh Steelers OL (#9 In Anderson’s Rankings) vs. Atlanta Falcons DL (#28 in PFF’s Rankings)

The Steelers are another big riser in Anderson’s rankings, jumping nine spots from the #18 slot he gave them last year. Anderson had this to say:

“The Steelers hope to end up on the other side of that coin after bringing Arthur Smith in to lead the offense. This is an aggressive ranking for Pittsburgh, which will start two rookies and a sophomore on the line. That trio could set up a nasty run-blocking unit for a team that will likely run the ball early and often with Smith and Mike Tomlin around.

The Steelers’ pass blocking could be as ugly as the run blocking is great, though. That’s tougher on young players, and both Russell Wilson and Justin Fields make life difficult on their line by holding the ball as long as any QBs in the league. Expect a great run but miserable pass-blocking metrics.”

The Falcons look to be fairly weak all around, so we should look to the Steelers run game in this one. Unfortunately that’s a two-headed monster of Najee Harris ($5,600) and Jaylen Warren ($5,600), but both players are cheap enough that they could get there even in limited volume.

With Pittsburgh also having a strong defensive front (#8 in PFF), “Pittsburgh RB + Defense” could be a unique and cheap build with some upside for GPPs. The Steelers are underdogs but could potentially pull an upset based on the ground game and defense.

Strong Defensive Line Matchups

Cincinnati Bengals DL (#13 In PFF Rankings) vs. New England Patriots OL (#31 in Anderson’s Rankings)

The Patriots will be a dumpster fire all around this season, and they aren’t doing their young skill position players any favors by putting them behind such a bad offensive front. New England has moved on from the Belichick era, which included line coach Dante Scarnecchia, so they’re unlikely to be saved by scheme either.

The Bengals front is roughly average but will look like All-Pros in Week 1. Unfortunately this isn’t exactly a hot take, Cincinnati ($3,800) is the second-most expensive defense and heaviest favorite in Week 1.

Their defense is a good play even at that price point though, with D/ST salaries fairly tightly bunched in the first Main Slate of the year.

Cleveland Browns DL (#5 In PFF Rankings) vs. Dallas Cowboys OL (#11 in Anderson’s Rankings)

This one might be a bit sneakier of a selection. The Cowboys and Browns are rated similarly by PFF, with two of the best pass rushers in the game anchoring each unit. For Cleveland, it’s 2024 Defensive Player of the Year Myles Garret, while the Cowboys have Micah Parsons.

However, the Browns’ offensive unit looks much more solid than the Cowboys, who lost elite yet oft-injured LT Tyron Smith in the offseason. They’re starting a rookie at the line’s most important position — with Garret likely to be lined up over him for much of the game.

Cleveland ($3,100) is favored by 2.5, but their defense is fairly cheap. Dallas won’t have much of a running game this year, so Garret and company should have plenty of chances to pin their ears back and get after Dak Prescott ($7,100).

Projecting line play — or the line’s impact on fantasy scoring — is one of the more challenging tasks in all of DFS.

Things are a bit easier on the team level, as assessing the unit’s overall success is more practical.

We also have projected sacks in our NFL Player Models.