The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Lastly, be sure to check out PlateIQ — one of the most powerful research sources you can find for MLB DFS.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: What is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Luken Baker ($2,000): First Base, St. Louis Cardinals
It’s been a hell of a foray into the 2024 season for Luken Baker. The St. Louis Cardinals first baseman was called up at the start of last week, appearing in a handful of games, primarily in a reserve role. However, Baker has started the past couple of games for the Cardinals, and his underlying metrics support that he’s about to make a significant fantasy impact sooner rather than later.
The former second-round pick has been absolutely crushing the ball, albeit with limited success. Across 18 plate appearances, Baker has a sensational 28.6% barrel rate and 85.7% hard-hit rate. While neither is sustainable, that prolific approach will eventually lead to more success at the plate. Combined with his 42.9% sweet spot rating, Baker will inevitably start to see balls start traveling a long way off his bat.
We started seeing that come to fruition last night, with Baker swatting a double off Joe Musgrove, driving in a run, and later coming around to score. Surely, that’s a sign of things to come for the 27-year-old.
For now, Baker is still an unproven commodity and comes at a discounted $2,000 salary. But that’s the DFS bettors’ boon, as he rates as a top value on today’s early-slate.
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MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Nathan Eovaldi ($10,100) vs. Chicago White Sox
The Texas Rangers conclude a three-game set against the Chicago White Sox on Tuesday afternoon, going for the three-game sweep of the historically bad Southsiders. They send Nathan Eovaldi to the mound for the inter-divisional tilt, and we’re expecting a standout performance from the Rangers’ right-hander.
Although he’s short of his career benchmarks in wins and ERA, Eovaldi is having an outstanding campaign. The 34-year-old is among the league leaders in WHIP, holding opponents to a paltry 1.10 walks and hits per inning pitched. Predictably, that correlates with a tidy 3.79 ERA, leaving him just 16 points shy of his previous best. Still, the best parts of his game are evident in his analytics profile.
Eovaldi is generating a ton of swing-and-misses while getting batters to chase pitches outside the zone. His 27.1% whiff rate puts him in the 65th percentile, while his 32.8% chase rate is on the top end of the scale, putting him in the 89th percentile. His full five-pitch arsenal will be on full display against the lowly White Sox.
We don’t need to belabor how bad the White Sox are but suffice it to say they stink. That gives Eovaldi an unneeded advantage at the dish, which we expect him to wield to his advantage all afternoon. That’s reflected in our aggregate calculations, with Eovaldi leading our median and ceiling projections.
Hitter
Corey Seager ($5,600) vs. Texas Rangers
Predictably, Nathan Eovaldi isn’t the only Texas Rangers with an implied advantage on Thursday’s busy slate. Chicago is sending gas can Nick Nastrini to the mound, amplifying the Rangers’ offensive ceiling in the series finale. Corey Seager stands chief among Texas’ hitters, ready to make the most significant fantasy impact on the early slate.
Seager has been in some kind of mood lately, setting the offensive standard over the past week. The three-time Silver Slugger is coming off a four-hit performance last night, in which he recorded two doubles and an RBI. That extends a torrid streak in which Seager has accumulated ten hits over his last six games, including four extra-base hits and five RBI. Pointing the lens further back, 15 of his last 28 hits have been of the extra-base variety, with 10 of those leaving the park altogether.
That’s bad news for Nick Nastrini, who has been serving delicious meatballs since joining the big club. His 13.0% barrel rate would be among the worst in all of baseball; however, he hasn’t tallied enough innings to qualify in the percentile ratings. That correlates with his 7.22 expected ERA, which tells us everything we need to know about the young pitcher’s approach.
Over the past month, Seager has quietly asserted himself as an MLB-best hitter, and we’ve seen the best he has to offer more recently. We’re expecting that trajectory to carry him and the Rangers to another elite performance on Thursday afternoon.
More DraftKings MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
MLB DFS Pitcher
Aaron Civale ($7,000) vs. San Francisco Giants
It took a few starts for Aaron Civale to get comfortable with his new team, but we’re finally starting to see the best he has to offer. That’s expected to continue into Thursday’s battle against the San Francisco Giants, where Civale rates as one of the most underappreciated pitchers on the slate.
After giving up 12 runs through his first three starts with the Milwaukee Brewers, Civale has given up just five over his last three. Across that modest sample, Civale has 16.1 innings pitched, with two quality starts and 12 strikeouts. Still, the righty is operating 60 points above his expected ERA, implying that further progression is anticipated.
We’re betting some of that progression comes on Thursday afternoon. The Giants have been one of the worst hitting teams this week, compiling a .686 OPS with 54 strikeouts in five games. On a quick turnaround from night game to day game, don’t expect those metrics to improve.
Civale presents as the pre-eminent value pick on Thursday afternoon. The Brewers’ starter has been throwing the ball well lately, a fact that is not reflected in his DFS salary. That makes him our preferred value pick on the early slate.
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MLB DFS Hitters
Ezequiel Tovar ($5,900) vs. Miami Marlins
Something is going on with the Colorado Rockies these days, and there’s still time to benefit. The Rockies conclude a four-game series with the Miami Marlins on Thursday afternoon, looking for the decisive 3-1 series win. They can expect Ezequiel Tovar to help get them there, sitting among the top batters in today’s projections.
As a team, the Rockies are raking right now. They’ve put together a .760 OPS over the last week, with eight dingers and 20 extra-base hits across the six-game sample. Tovar has contributed more than his fair share. The up-and-coming shortstop has knocked five doubles and two home runs, accounting for four runs scored and six RBI. Those metrics will ratchet higher against Valente Bellozo.
At first glance, Bellozo appears to be in good standing, but his underlying metrics reveal a different picture. The Marlins righty sits among the worst pitchers in the MLB in hard-hit and barrel rates, coming in at 47.4% and 9.5%, respectively. As expected, that correlates with a disastrous .495 expected slugging percentage that won’t play well at Coors Field.
Tovar and the Rockies have the highest projected run total this afternoon. As we’re seeing, the 23-year-old has been a driving force in that regard and has more to contribute on the early slate.
Otto Lopez ($3,900) vs. Colorado Rockies
While the Marlins appear out-matched in today’s matinee, they still have some underrated hitters who can turn the fantasy tides. Otto Lopez is one of those batters who projects as a top infield option on Thursday afternoon.
Lopez has loved his time in Denver, recording four hits through the first three games of the series, including a double in the series opener. Moreover, his analytics profile supports ongoing success. The 25-year-old remains over 60 points below his expected slugging percentage and 20 points below his expected batting average, suggesting that he could end the 2024 season on a high note.
Bradley Blalock is the probable starter for the Rockies, and he doesn’t inspire much confidence from the bump. Across just 17.1 innings pitched, the right-hander has a 3.06 ERA which is a substantial deviation from his 4.72 expected mark. Worse, Blalock is prone to giving up hard contact, negatively impacting his outlook on Thursday.
As implied by the 11.5 betting total, runs should be plentiful at Coors Field today. Lopez will do his part to power the Marlins offense, overachieving relative to the implied value of his $3,900 salary.
