The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Blake Perkins ($2,400): Outfielder, Milwaukee Brewers
Blake Perkins has turned things on after the All-Star break with a .333/.380/.378 batting line. His upside is capped with a lack of power potential, but at $2,400, he is still a viable bargain option.
On the season, Perkins is hitting .257/.330/.360 with six home runs and 35 RBI in 94 games. His .322 xSLG and .279 wOBA are both concerning, but he has a +0.42 average Plus/Minus over his last 10 games.
The Brewers face left-hander Kyle Harrison tonight at home. The Giants starter is 7-5 with a 4.00 ERA and 1.30 WHIP through 22 starts.
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MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Freddy Peralta ($9,800) vs. San Francisco Giants
Freddy Peralta is sneaking up behind Chris Sale in the ceiling projections tonight but comes at a $1,200 DraftKings discount. The model likes him as a strong start today against the Giants lineup.
It’s been another solid season for Peralta, with an 8-7 record and a 3.86 ERA. He is 2-2 with a 3.20 ERA since the All-Star break and has allowed just one run over 11 innings in his last two starts. He has a respectable 27.6 K% and allows a .229 xBA.
Using Plate IQ, the Giants have a .171 ISO and .320 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. They have an elevated 24.8 K% in their projected lineup against righties and a low run projection.
Hitter
Shohei Ohtani ($7,000) vs. Baltimore Orioles
A stalwart at the top of the ceiling projections, Shohei Ohtani continues to rake at the plate with a +3.10 average Plus/Minus over his last 10 games. He has multiple hits in four of his last six games, with a pair of home runs in that stretch.
In his first season with the Dodgers, Ohtani is batting .294/.379/.614 with 41 home runs and 94 RBI. He has a 57.9 hard hit % with a 95.2 average exit velocity.
Ohtani would normally have a difficult matchup tonight against Corbin Burnes with his 12-6 with a 3.28 ERA and 1.13 WHIP, but Burnes has struggled mightily in recent starts. In August, he has a 1-2 record with an 8.71 ERA and has allowed at least three runs in all four starts.
More DraftKings MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
MLB DFS Pitcher
Chris Sale ($11,000) at Minnesota Twins
Today’s main slate features two standout pitching options in Peralta and Chris Sale. Sale has by far the highest price tag, but comes with the highest upside potential. Fantasy owners willing to pay up should see dividends tonight in Minnesota.
Sale leads the National League in wins with a 14-3 record and an ERA of 2.62. He is second in the league with 191 strikeouts with an excellent 32.7 K% that boosts his fantasy ceiling. Though his last outing was disappointing, Sale had three straight 10+ strikeout starts in a row before that.
The Twins feature just three high ISO and high wOBA hitters in their lineup and have low run and home run projections today with moderate park ratings from both sides of the plate.
Now available: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
MLB DFS Hitters
Connor Norby ($3,900) at Colorado Rockies
Miami has an elevated implied run total on the main slate as they wrap up their trip in Colorado, and Connor Norby is a value option to take advantage of the offensive projections.
After being traded to the Marlins mid-season during his rookie campaign, Norby has impressed at the plate over his eight games with the team. He is batting .344/.400/.688 with at least one hit in every game. He has two home runs and five doubles in that span for a +4.68 average Plus/Minus over his last 10 games.
Corbin Carroll ($5,200) vs. New York Mets
The young Diamondbacks star may still be well behind his 2023 marks, but he has turned things up a notch after the All-Star break with 10 home runs and a .252/.336/.593 hitting line.
On the season, Carroll is batting .223/.310/.401 with 15 home runs and 55 RBI. He does lead the National League in triples for the second year in a row with 12 and is second in the league with 94 runs scored.
Carroll has a +3.12 average Plus/Minus over his last 10 games and faces Luis Severino tonight. The Mets righty is 9-6 with a 3.84 ERA and 1.24 WHIP.
