The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Lastly, be sure to check out PlateIQ — one of the most powerful research sources you can find for MLB DFS.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: What is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Griffin Conine ($2,000): Outfielder, Miami Marlins
Former second-round pick Griffin Conine made his MLB debut on Monday night, coming off the bench for the Miami Marlins in a 3-2 defeat. While his first plate appearance was unspectacular, we’re expecting a big showing from the inexpensive outfielder on Tuesday’s main slate.
Son of former two-time All-Star Jeff Conine, the second-generation MLBer has a bright future. Conine has delivered in Triple-A this season, posting .475 slugging and .350 on-base percentages with the Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp. Naturally, those top-end benchmarks correlate with robust run production, with Conine accounting for 59 runs and 68 RBI in 112 games. We’re expecting those kinds of production metrics to shine through in Tuesday’s clash against the Colorado Rockies.
On top of being the most hitter-friendly park in the majors, the left-handed batting outfielder gets to tee off Cal Quantrill. The Rockies’ right-hander has below-average metrics nearly across the board, encapsulated in his .424 expected slugging percentage and 4.87 expected ERA.
Players don’t come cheaper than Conine, and as a relatively unknown commodity, don’t expect him to be heavily featured on a busy main slate. Conine is the quintessential value pick on Tuesday night, and we don’t expect him to disappoint in his first projected start in the MLB.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper promo code LABS1 for a $100 deposit match.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Logan Gilbert ($9,400) vs. Tampa Bay Rays
T-Mobile Park has been a safe haven for Seattle Mariners pitchers this year, and we witnessed as much on Monday night against an overmatched Tampa Bay Rays side. Now, it’s Logan Gilbert’s turn to take the ball, and we expect the towering righty to put forth another slate-leading effort. But of course, there are several factors pointing Gilbert to fantasy glory in this crucial AL showdown.
Gilbert has one of the most prominent analytics profiles of the night. The former 14th-overall pick sits in the 80th percentile or better in expected ERA, whiff rate, and fastball velo. More importantly, he’s translated that to on-field success all season. Gilbert allows a paltry 0.91 walks and hits per inning pitched, which would typically yield an ERA below the 3.21 mark he’s posted this season. Moreover, he’s a prime bounce-back candidate after getting shelled for eight runs (six earned) in his last start versus the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Furthering Gilbert’s cause, the Rays have been one of the most hapless teams at the plate this season. Their collective .675 OPS is the sixth-worst in the majors, while their 1,201 strikeouts are the fifth most. Worse, both of those metrics have been exacerbated over the past week, with Tampa Bay hitters striking out 67 times over six games with a disastrous .627 OPS.
Gilbert reserves his best efforts for at home, where he’s posted a 2.53 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, and a 9.4 K/9 rate. Given the Rays’ recent struggles, those benchmarks should reach a new stratosphere when Gilbert is done with the AL East foes. The M’s righty leads our composite median and ceiling projections, making him the top fantasy pitcher on tonight’s docket.
Hitter
Mookie Betts ($6,300) vs. Baltimore Orioles
As usual, you’ll find the trio of Los Angeles Dodgers’ sluggers near the top of our projections. While Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman are prominent fixtures tonight, we give the edge to rostering Mookie Betts as the NL West leaders take on southpaw Cole Irvin and the Baltimore Orioles.
In addition to his natural advantage over lefties, which he has flaunted unmercifully, Betts has re-kindled his MVP form since returning to the Dodgers lineup. The six-time Silver Slugger has totaled 14 hits in 13 games off the IL, including five multi-hit efforts, seven extra-base hits, and 11 runs driven in.
As alluded to, we’re expecting to see the best Betts has to offer against the Orioles’ left-hander. Betts’ slugging percentage jumps ten points versus southpaws, increasing to .500 with 11 extra-base hits in just 104 at-bats. Further, he has a measly 6.8% strikeout rate, precipitating a .393 on-base percentage and a .327 batting average.
With four hits across his last five games, all of which have gone for extra bases, Betts is poised to continue his resurgence with another strong showing against the O’s. Insulated by some of the top hitters in the game, his plate appearances typically result in some kind of fantasy production. We expect Betts to maximize those opportunities on Tuesday night, helping him reach the pinnacle of production.
More DraftKings MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
MLB DFS Pitcher
Jeffrey Springs ($7,500) vs. Seattle Mariners
We employed this strategy earlier in the month with moderate success, and we’re going back to it on Tuesday night. The inter-divisional battle between the Tampa Bay Rays and Seattle Mariners projects as a top-end pitchers’ duel as both teams jostle for important wins in the AL wild-card race. Rostering Jeffrey Springs with the aforementioned Gilbert could be a winning DFS strategy.
Springs isn’t a household name, but he’s rounding into elite form following Tommy John surgery in 2023. The left-hander returned to the rotation at the end of July and hasn’t given up more than three earned runs in any of his five starts. While his most recent effort was sub-optimal, lasting just 3.1 innings against the lowly Oakland Athletics, it was inevitable regression. In his two prior starts, Springs had given up just two earned runs across 10.0 innings pitched while striking out 15.
We’re expecting Springs to get back into that top-end form against the Mariners. T-Mobile Park is a forgiving pitchers’ park, and the Mariners are one of the worst-hitting teams in the bigs. Their .667 OPS puts them behind the Rays, as do their 1,350 strikeouts.
Springs’ ceiling is far superior than his salary implies, making him a premier value option on the main slate. We like him to make the most of this start, ending the night as one of the top-performing fantasy pitchers.
Now available: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
MLB DFS Hitters
Will Wagner ($2,500) vs. Boston Red Sox
The Toronto Blue Jays should have turned over their roster a long time ago. After trading away many of their starters ahead of the MLB trade deadline, the Jays called up all the top performers from their farm system. Among them stands Will Wagner, who is flashing elite potential with the big club.
Wagner’s traditional stats are on par with what we’d expect from a 26-year-old without MLB experience, but his analytics profile illustrates his true potential. Although not qualified, the Jays infielder ranks highly relative to his big league peers. Wagner’s .292 expected batting average would be good enough for the top 10% of hitters, while his 48.4% hard-hit rate would place him among the top 20%. As expected, those metrics correlate with other key categories, including top-end sweet spot, squared-up, and expected slugging percentage ratings.
Predictably, the left-handed batting Wagner’s best efforts come off right-handers. He’s posted a .448 slugging percentage and .387 OBP versus righties, including all three of his extra-base hits and four of his five RBI.
Cooper Criswell is a contact pitcher, and that will be his undoing against Wagner. Expect the newly minted Jays starter to maintain his current form and vastly exceed the implied value of his modest DFS salary.
Teoscar Hernandez ($5,000) vs. Baltimore Orioles
We’re going back to the inter-league affair between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Baltimore Orioles for our final pick. The lefty-on-lefty battle is scaring us off Ohtani and Freeman, paving the way for Teoscar Hernandez to have a strong showing.
Playing behind the Big Three, Hernandez doesn’t get the respect he deserves in the Dodgers lineup. The reigning Home Run Derby Champion is cleaning up from the fourth spot in the order. Hernandez’s 27 homers and 83 RBI both put him among the top five in the NL, with his .485 slugging percentage keeping him in the top ten.
Moreover, he’s ratcheted up his production with his most recent efforts. Hernandez is slugging .537 in the month of August, sending 11 of his 23 hits for a double or better. That correlates with improved run production, with the Dodgers outfielder driving in 16 and coming around to score 14 more.
All of that is without even considering his mighty splits versus lefties. Hernandez’s slugging percentage rockets to .581 off of southpaws, accounting for ten of his 27 long fly balls in 124 at-bats. Tonight presents as a glorious opportunity for Hernandez to continue his recent onslaught against the Orioles.
