The PGA TOUR FedExCup Playoffs conclude with the TOUR Championship this week at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta. The year-long race for FedExCup points culminates with each player getting starting strokes for this event on their way to fight for the $25 million top prize, which will go to the 18th FedExCup Champion.
The top 30 players in the FedExCup standings have made it to the final tournament of the playoffs, which is a unique, small-field, no-cut event. Due to the format, only the best of the best are in the field, but ownership is very concentrated since there are only 30 options to consider. It’s still a fun week of fantasy golf, for sure, but it’s very different from a typical tournament.
The course at East Lake Golf Club has hosted the TOUR Championship every year since 2004 and 23 times in the last 26 years. Although still familiar, the course will be different this year after a full restoration by Andrew Green since last year. The greens are all now TifEagle Bermuda, and Green also tried to turn back the clock to Donald Ross’s original design from 1949 as much as possible while also making the course a tough test for the best golfers on the modern PGA TOUR. Course history is still worth considering, but I’ll lean more into current form and Strokes Gained metrics since it is a new look and feel. I’ll be looking for Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and Strokes Gained: Approach along with players who putt well on Bermuda greens in general.
Last year, Viktor Hovland followed up his BMW Championship win at Olympia Fields by passing Scottie Scheffler to win the TOUR Championship. Since the current FedExCup Starting Strokes format began, three of the five winners have come from behind, while two winners (Dustin Johnson in 2020 and Patrick Cantlay in 2021) started with the lead. Starting strokes also make course history a little tricky, which is why I prefer to focus more on Strokes Gained at East Lake rather than finishing position, which can be radically impacted by where a player begins the week.
As a reminder, Scheffler starts the week at -10 since he was the leader in the FedExCup standings with staggered scores based on their position in the FedExCup points ranking list.
The focus of this post is strong GPP options with lower ownership projections than their potential performance. That can be especially tricky in such a small field, but we’ll be looking for leverage wherever we can get it. These picks go against the grain as we look for under-owned options with high ceilings, even if it means taking on more risk.
All Strokes Gained metrics referenced are from the Rabbit Hole.
Usually, I rely heavily on the Stroked Gained Model in FantasyLabs, which is very predictive of results. I also tend to lean toward players who excel in Strokes Gained: Approach, which is more sustainable week-to-week than a hot putter.
Since these are GPP picks, we can accept more risk in exchange for getting a higher ceiling. High-risk, high-reward options with low ownership create the “boom-or-bust” style lineups that often lead to large-field success. To find guidance for all contest types, check out our full Daily Fantasy Golf coverage each week.
No matter what type of format you prefer, be sure to use the FantasyLabs PGA Models to help you make the best choices. These models use stats and simulations to highlight different players’ strengths and weaknesses. A few critical new stats for GPP play are Perfect% and SimLeverage, which are further explained here.
As you dig into the numbers, you can enjoy the many tools FantasyLabs offers, including the Lineup Optimizer, which effortlessly creates up to 300 lineups. Alternatively, you can use the Lineup Builder if you prefer a more hands-on approach.
Check out my top picks in each price range listed below.
Editors note: SimLeverage and Perfect% numbers may change after this piece is published. Be sure to check the PGA Models for any updates to the sims.
Mid-Priced PGA DFS Pick
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Unless otherwise noted, all Strokes Gained metrics referenced in this article come via the Rabbit Hole.
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Collin Morikawa $9,100
Morikawa has the highest SimLeverage in the field this week and is always a threat to win when iron play is a focus. He doesn’t come in with the best form, but this seems like a good place to back his talent since so many people are sleeping on. His salary is low enough that he can be paired with whichever stud you think will lift the trophy and bring nice differentiation.
This week, he starts back in the field at four-under-par, but last year, he began his week at East Lake with an opening round 61. That could put him right in the mix if he comes close to duplicating that performance.
He comes in off a pair of ho-hum results with a T22 at the FedEx St. Jude and a T28 last week at the BMW Championship. However, over the last 36 rounds, he still ranks fifth in the field in Total Strokes Gained and third in the field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green behind only Scheffler and Schauffele.
This week, Morikawa has the fourth-highest Perfect% in the field due to his upside at his salary, along with an ownership projection under 20%. He has the seventh-highest ceiling projection but only the 19th-highest ownership projection.
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Value PGA DFS Pick
Viktor Hovland $8,300
Hovland won the trophy last year after starting only two strokes behind Scheffler, but he’ll start this year all the way back at -1, nine strokes off the lead. After a disappointing season overall, Hovland is only back to defend his FedExCup title as a result of his strong showing two weeks ago. He began the FedExCup Playoffs at No. 57 but climbed into the top 20 with a T2 at the FedEx St. Jude Championship and followed that up with a T26 in Colorado.
Even though it’s probably too tall a mountain for him to climb to become the first-ever back-to-back FedExCup Champion, he should be a solid DFS play if he can recapture the magic of last year’s win or the form he showed two weeks ago in Memphis. He threw people off the scent by talking about how much the course has changed, but his game should still be a solid fit overall.
He actually leads the field in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee over the last 30 rounds and also leads the way in Strokes Gained: Approach over the last two weeks while also ranking second in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. If his short game comes back to life, he should be able to charge up the leaderboard.
Hovland’s ownership projection is under 20%, and he has the second-best SimLeverage of all players between $7,000 and $9,000. In that range, Vik has the fifth-highest ceiling projection and Perfect% and the fourth-lowest ownership projection.
Sleeper PGA DFS Pick
Justin Thomas $6,800
I think we can call it a comeback (or at least the start of one)! Thomas just missed the playoffs last year, but he is back in the finale this year after a solid bounce-back campaign.
While he still doesn’t have a win since the 2022 PGA Championship, he did make the cut in 14 of 18 tournaments this season with eight top 25s and five top 10s. That was enough to get him back to the TOUR Championship on the number at No. 30 after a T30 at the St. Jude and a T39 at the BMW Championship.
Thomas will start at even-par, 10 strokes behind Scheffler, but don’t be surprised if he climbs up the leaderboard quickly. He has finished T7 or better in all eight of his career starts at East Lake, including runner-up finishes in 2017 and 2020. He has exactly the kind of game you need to go low at this venue, although he has been quiet in the playoffs.
Over the last six months, Thomas ranks in the top 10 in this elite field in Strokes Gained: Approach and the top five in Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green.
There are 11 players in the field with salaries of $7,000 or under, and Thomas has the fourth-highest perfect% and the second-highest SimLeverage in that price range. He has the third-highest SimLeverage in the field since his ownership projection of only about 12% is the second-lowest in the entire field. JT is a great source of leverage with plenty of upside.
