We have made it to the final week of the preseason. After slogging through months without meaningful NFL football, winter is finally coming.
The final week of the preseason will feature the largest disparity in how coaches choose to approach things. Some teams look at this as the final dress rehearsal before the regular season and will choose to get their starters extended playing time. Others will bench the starters altogether to get one final look at the guys battling for the final few roster spots.
Sunday features the final day of the preseason, with three games to choose from. Only two of the six teams are expected to play their starters – the Titans and the Patriots – with the rest hoping to just make it through healthy.
If you’re new to preseason DFS, there are a few key trends to keep in mind:
1. Defenses & Kickers are Your Friends
In general, scoring in the preseason is lower than it is during the regular season. There are worse quarterbacks getting most of the snaps, which can also lead to more turnovers.
Defense is also the only position that is guaranteed to be on the field for the entire game. It doesn’t matter if the first-, second-, or third-string defenders are out there, they all rack up fantasy points for the defensive unit.
That results in a massive boon for the value of fantasy defenses. Fantasy defenses average just under eight points per game during the preseason, which is nearly two full points more than every other position (per Establish the Run).
We can only play one kicker and defense in the traditional format, but loading up multiple during showdown slates is definitely viable.
2. Target Playing Time Over Talent
This is probably true for regular-season DFS as well, but it’s imperative in the preseason. Finding out how teams plan to distribute their snaps to each position group is the biggest challenge of the preseason. If you can identify which quarterbacks, running backs, and receivers are going to see the most opportunities, you’re halfway towards building a winning lineup.
That’s particularly true early in the preseason. Most teams are going to lean very heavily on the bottom of their depth charts in the Hall of Fame Game and Week 1. Some select starters may see a drive or two, but this is the time when coaches and GMs figure out the bottom of their 53-man roster. Getting to the regular season with their starters healthy is typically more important than shaking off any rust accumulated during the offseason.
If you can find a quarterback who is set to play big snaps, they are an extremely difficult fade in the preseason. They become the best plays on the slate, while running backs typically have more value than receivers.
3. Tight Ends Don’t Matter
Unless you’re forced to roster a tight end, don’t do it. The position is an absolute dumpster fire during the preseason. You’ll typically see a bunch of players fighting for one spot on the field, and that spot isn’t even particularly valuable. There are exceptions, but on average, tight end is the lowest-scoring position in preseason DFS by a country mile.
We do have to roster a tight end in the traditional format, but by no means should you consider using one in the flex spot.
With the general strategy out of the way, let’s dive into some specific thoughts for Thursday’s slate.
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NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Zach Wilson
After an elite quarterback slate on Saturday, the pickings are a lot slimmer on Sunday. Each team is expected to play multiple quarterbacks, with the Patriots planning on getting four options reps.
The Broncos stand out as the strongest option from a depth chart standpoint. Bo Nix will get the night off after being named the starter earlier this week, while Jarrett Stidham is only expected to see 8-12 plays. That leaves Wilson to handle the rest of the opportunities.
Wilson is looking to re-write his story after flaming out with the Jets, and he’s earned some praise from head coach Sean Payton of late. He’s also played relatively well this preseason, averaging 7.7 yards per attempt with one touchdown. He might not ever live up to the hype of being the No. 2 overall pick, but it will be interesting to see what he can do with nearly a full game on Sunday.
Other Options
- Jake Haener & Spencer Rattler – Both Haener and Rattler will see a half on Sunday as they continue to compete for the backup QB job in New Orleans. So far, Haener has been the clear winner: he’s averaged 7.0 yards per attempt compared to 3.9 for Rattler. That gives Haener the slight edge in my eyes, but both guys are in play from a playing time perspective.
- Clayton Tune & Desmond Ridder – Like with New Orleans, both Cardinals’ QBs should see about a half on Sunday. Tune has been the slightly more productive passer, but Ridder does have the athleticism edge.
- Trace McSorley – The Commanders chose to give McSorley 33 snaps basically right off the street in Week 2, which was seven more than Jeff Driskel. Driskel should draw the start in Week 3, but with the rest of their QB room banged up, they may want to preserve Driskel in case of an emergency. I’d expect McSorley to get the edge in snaps again.
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NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Jordan Mims
The Saints have a clear top three at running back in Alvin Kamara, Kendre Miller, and Jamaal Williams. Kamara and Miller have already been ruled out, while Williams shouldn’t play more than a few series (if at all).
That leaves three runners to handle the rest of the work, with Mims serving as the biggest workhorse through the first two games. He’s handled 20 carries in his two outings, and he’s also garnered five targets. Mims also led the position group with 21 snaps in Week 2, and I’d expect him to do so once again.
Other Options
- Julius Chesnut – Chestnut was reportedly competing with Hassan Haskins for the RB3 job, but Haskins has been used much more sparingly during the preseason. While that’s not good for Chesnut’s regular-season outlook, it does make him a solid preseason target. He’s racked up 18 carries and five targets through the first two weeks.
- Trey Benson – Benson is expected to serve as the Cardinals’ backup RB during the regular season, but that hasn’t earned him any special treatment in the preseason. The third-round pick out of Florida State has handled at least 25% of the snaps in back-to-back games, and he easily leads the team with 17 carries.
- Kevin Harris – The Patriots have had a pretty deep rotation at most positions during the preseason, but Harris has been their top running back. He has 11 carries and three targets, and he’s managed to find the end zone. That’s enough to warrant consideration on a small slate.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Jha’Quan Jackson
If you could earn points for cardio, Jackson would’ve went off last week. He played on 74% of the team’s snaps, with much of the depth chart dealing with injuries. Even though the starters are going to get some work for the Titans, Jackson should be busy once again. Colton Dowell, Kyle Philips, and Tre’Shuan Harrison have all missed time of late, so the Titans simply don’t have a ton of bodies to absorb the snaps.
Jackson is a sixth-round rookie out of Tulane, and his 4.42 40-yard dash puts him in the 90th percentile for receivers (per Player Profiler). That gives him some big-play ability.
Unfortunately, Jackson has been unable to take advantage of his abundance of playing time, securing just five catches for 63 yards. Still, that type of playing time upside makes him the clear top option at the position on Sunday.
Other Options
- A.T. Perry – Perry has had a strong preseason for the Saints, racking up six catches for 109 yards on 10 targets. He also leads the team’s receivers in routes run, so he’s an excellent option in the preseason finale.
- Tejhuan Palmer – Palmer is first on the Cardinals in routes run and has garnered a respectable eight targets this preseason. That hasn’t resulted in any real production, but the opportunities should be there again on Sunday.
- Kayshon Boutte – Boutte has paced the Patriots’ receivers this preseason, securing 10 targets, six catches, and 76 yards. He’s played on at least 47% of the snaps in both games, so he should see plenty of work once the starters depart.
- Troy Franklin – The fourth-round rookie has failed to make an impression up to this point, so he should look to earn his stripes in the final preseason contest. He finished second among the team’s receivers in snaps last week, but that was with the starters playing some.
NFL DFS Tight End Picks
David Martin-Robinson
Chig Okonkwo will be out there with the Titans’ starters, but after that, the depth chart looks pretty bare. Josh Whyle has been sidelined with a concussion, while Nick Vannett has yet to suit up this preseason. That leaves a small group of players to see action after Okonkwo departs.
Martin-Robinson has been their top tight end during the preseason. He’s seen at least a 54% snap share in back-to-back games, and that’s resulted in some tangible production. He’s third on the team with seven targets, and he’s caught five balls for 68 yards.
Other Options
- Michael Jacobson – The Saints have seven TEs on their roster, but their top four could all sit in Week 3. Jacobson missed last week’s contest with an injury, but he has returned to practice and should be in the lineup on Sunday.
- Lucas Krull – Krull leads the Broncos with seven targets during the preseason, which he’s converted into six grabs for 37 yards.
